Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Des Moines, IA – March 3, 2011 Andy Wood NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Also: John Schaake, John Lhotak, Kevin Werner, Michelle Schmidt 1 Incorporating weather and climate predictions from NCEP GFS and CFS into operational water supply forecasts for the Western U.S.
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Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Des Moines, IA – March 3, 2011 Andy Wood NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Also: John Schaake,
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Climate Prediction Applications Science WorkshopDes Moines, IA – March 3, 2011
Andy WoodNWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Also:
John Schaake, John Lhotak, Kevin Werner, Michelle Schmidt
1
Incorporating weather and climate predictions from NCEP GFS and CFS into operational water
supply forecasts for the Western U.S.
Outline
Motivation – applications of probabilistic prediction
ESP overview and new developments
CFS-based water supply forecast example
Applications of Probabilistic Flow Forecasts
Western water supply Water Utilities, Mgmt Districts: Denver, S. Calif. USBR 24-month study BOR Midterm
Probabilistic Model
Others Pacificorps operation on Bear River (UT and ID) BPA and USACE operation on Columbia River INFORMS in CA
Western Water Supply Forecasts
Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US
Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies
NWS forecast program began in 1940s
Primary forecast tools:– Ensemble Streamflow Prediction– Multivariate Linear Regression