Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Applications Postdoctoral Applications Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP) Program (CPAPP) An Experiment in Interfacing An Experiment in Interfacing Climate and Society Climate and Society Lisa Goddard 1 , Kelly Redmond 2 , and Meg Austin 3 1 International Research Institute for Climate & Society 2 Desert Research Institute/Western Regional Climate Center 3 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Email: [email protected]or [email protected]
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Climate Prediction Applications Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP) An Experiment in Interfacing Climate and Society Lisa Goddard 1, Kelly Redmond 2, and Meg.
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Climate Prediction Applications Climate Prediction Applications Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP)Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP)
An Experiment in Interfacing An Experiment in Interfacing Climate and SocietyClimate and Society
Lisa Goddard1, Kelly Redmond2, and Meg Austin3
1International Research Institute for Climate & Society2Desert Research Institute/Western Regional Climate Center
Our mission is to foster improved practices in the provision, validation, and uses of climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within U.S. and international climate science and applications communities.
operational
Potential predictability
Research forecasts
Potential gains in seasonal forecast skill that might be realized by transitioning research forecasts’ methodologies
into operational forecasts. Also shown is potential predictability, approximating an upper limit to skill.
Goal 1: Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability
Goal 2: Improve provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect to
drought and other extreme events
In some mid-latitudes regions drought appears to be related to La Niña-like conditions.(Seager et al., 2005, Schubert et al. 2004, Barlow et al. 2002, Cole et al. 2002)
Regions of Mid-latitude Drought Related to La Niña
Note: 5 month lag between max. Nino 3.4 SSTA and extent peaks
Spatial Extent of Tropical Drought Correlated with El Niño
(B. Lyon, 2004, GRL)
Goal 3: Foster research and development of prediction systems for climate impacts on ecosystems
Link between low-frequency climate variability and ecosystems
Gulf of Alaska – climate change and major shifts in marine ecosystemsBotsford et al 1997, Science Anderson and Piat 2000, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.
Hare and Mantua, 2000, Prog. Oceanogr.The main EOFs here represent a collection of several dozen biological and physical variables in the North Pacific. A regime shift is evident in the mid to late 1970s.
Goal 4: Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support
Process Studies/Understanding
Earth SystemModeling
ClimatePrediction
Climate-RelatedRisk Management& Decision Making
Transforming knowledge into solutions
The needs of decision makers and risk managers inform the research priorities of the climate prediction community
Some novel aspects – * Bring together recent PhDs with background in
climate science with real-time decision makers involved in climate risk management.
* Supervision of postdoctoral fellow by BOTHdecision making institution and climate research institution.
* Explicit “buy in” by decision making institution.Remaining salary provided by national funding agencies associated with US CLIVAR.“In kind” contributions from climate research institution.
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)
Institutional Partners –
Climate Research Institutions:Involved in the development, production and application of climate information. Examples of such institutions include, but are not limited to, universities tied to the RISAs, Regional Climate Centers, and federal research facilities
Decision Making Institutions:Involved in climate-related risk management and decision-making. Examples include national-, regional-, state-, or municipal-level agencies and organizations (public and non-profit) that manage or regulate natural resources or produce a public good.
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)
Status – Pilot phase – 3-post-docs funded by NOAA at 50%. Rest of funding from Decision Making Institution.
* January 2007 – Program prospectus ‘finalized’
* August 2007 – Meeting of Oversight Committee with institutional partners to develop program announcement and solidify
process.
* September 2007 – Post-doc Announcement of Opportunity issued
* December 2007 – Initial post-doc applications due
* January 2008 – Post-doc short-list provided with institutional statements* January 2008 – Institutional Partner Announcement of Opportunity issued
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)
Involvement … so far (projects to start mid-2008)
Institutional Partners involved:* USBR + NOAA-ESRL: Western Water & Climate Change
* Tampa Bay Water + U. Florida: Municipal Water & Climate Variability
Post-doctoral interest:* 22 candidates
* 7 short-listed candidates, now developing more detailed research proposals based on institutional statements of the problem.
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)
CPAPP Timeline
Aug 2
007
Oct 20
07
Dec 2
007
Feb 2
008
Apr 2
008
Jun
2008
Aug 2
008
Oct 20
08
Dec 2
008
: Meeting of Oversight Committee
: Announcement of Opportunity
: Due Date
: Decisions Announced
OC & Inst.Partners define themes of post-doc AO
OC Panel reviews post-doc proposals
OC & Inst.Partners define themes of post-doc AO
Post-doc Application (’08)
Inst.Partner Application (’09)
Post-doc begins work
Initial Applications due
Short-listed candidates develop more specificresearch proposals
Post-doc Application (’09)
For more information please visithttp://www.vsp.ucar.edu