Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+,

Climate Information and Climate Information and Agricultural Risk ManagementAgricultural Risk ManagementA Systemic Approach to Understanding

Farmers’ Decision-Making

T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*,

K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom** University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida

Outline

• Research methods and setting

• Interactions with weather and climate information systems

• Potential adaptive strategies

• Challenges to forecast use

• Farmers’ suggestions for usability

Methods and Research Setting

• Sample: 38 farmers• Sites: 21 counties in

South Georgia• Methods: Semi-

structured interviews– Weather and climate

information systems– Climate variability and

risk mgmt. strategies– Potential adaptations

Methods and Research Setting

• Sample: 38 farmers• Sites: 21 counties in

South Georgia• Methods: Semi-

structured interviews• Mixed production

systems• Avg. 2 per operation

Production System Freq.Row crop 31

Produce (conv. & org.) 10

Cattle 8

Pine plantation 7

Hay 4

Pecans 3

Sows 2

Peach 2

Turf grass 1

Goats 1

Poultry 1

Weather & Climate Info Sources

• Daily use, often accessed multiple times– Spraying– Planting

– Irrigation • Confidence low beyond

3-5 days• Wives & children are

often internet users; information gateways

Source Freq.

Weather Channel (TV) 18

Local TV 16

Data Trans. Network 9

Online (indeterminate) 9

Weather.com 6

Farm Magazines 4

Cell phone 4

GAEMN 4

Local Radio 3

Local Paper 2

Weatherbug.com 2

Accuweather.com 1

NOAA (online) 1

NWS (online) 1

Farmer's Almanac 1

Weather & Climate Info Sources

• Passive exposure to climate forecasts

• 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions– “Conversation piece”– “Peace of mind”

• Collective credibility

Source Freq.

Weather Channel (TV) 18

Local TV 16

Data Trans. Network 9

Online (indeterminate) 9

Weather.com 6

Farm Magazines 4

Cell phone 4

GAEMN 4

Local Radio 3

Local Paper 2

Weatherbug.com 2

Accuweather.com 1

NOAA (online) 1

NWS (online) 1

Farmer's Almanac 1

Adaptive Management Options

• Cropping strategy– Corn or cotton ?– Dry land corn ?– Soil : crop : forecast ?

• Forward contracts ?• Planting schedule

– Dry year pine planting ?– Late frost risk ?

Potential Use Freq.Crop selection 23

Planting timing 16

Input management 14

Land management 13

Variety selection 11

Marketing 8

Harvesting dates 4

Insurance 3

Herd management 2

Hog lagoon mgmt. 1

Adaptive Management Options

Potential Use Freq.Crop selection 23

Planting timing 16

Input management 14

Land management 13

Variety selection 11

Marketing 8

Harvesting dates 4

Insurance 3

Herd management 2

Hog lagoon mgmt. 1

Forecast Use: Irwin CountySpring 2006 forecast for summer drought widespread shift from

long- to short-cycle peanut variety

Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers

• Agronomic requirements • Commodity prices• Insurance constraints• Input prices• Credit options• Policy environment

– Price supports– Trade policies– Immigration laws

Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non-climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver

Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non-climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

• Discrepancy in scales of forecasts & decisions – Temporal– Spatial

• Inexperience with climate forecasts– Unawareness of potential– Skepticism of accuracy

• Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts– Probability– Accuracy

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

• Difficulty in processing additional information– Time– Mental energy

• Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations– Indebtedness– Infrastructural investments– Large acreage

• Potential for actors to leverage info over farmers– Lenders– Insurers– Brokers

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

• Create recognizable identity for DSS– “Show the people behind it” – Association with land-grant university

• Communication – Use lay-users’ language– “Show you understand what it means to be a farmer”– Layer information for different users

• Cultivate habitual reference to site– Regular outreach– Keep information updated

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

• Enable users to evaluate forecasts – Publish forecast history – Publish forecast

performance records– Explain probability upfront

• Integrate users’ feedback into product development and assessment

Questions?

This research was supported by funding from

NOAAUSDA-RMA

USDA-CSREES

www.agclimate.orghttp://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/