Homogenization of daily data Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate series for extreme climate in in d d e e x x calculation calculation Lakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z., Lakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z., Szalai, S. Szalai, S. Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 Databases, 26-30 May 2008
Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate in d e x calculation Lakatos , M., Szentimey T. Bihari , Z., Szalai , S. Climate index calculation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Homogenization of daily data Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate inseries for extreme climate inddeexx
calculationcalculation
Lakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z.,Lakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z.,Szalai, S. Szalai, S.
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Climate index calculationClimate index calculation
1998 CCL (Comission for Climatology of WMO) / CLIVAR (Research programme on CLImate VARiability and predictability) ECA&D (European Climate Assessment and Dataset)
NKFP-3A/082/2004 „Regional Climate Modeling” 2005 – 2007 (National Office for Research and Technology)
CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assesment) WP4: extreme index calculation on homogenized, gridded observations and on RCM’s data
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Index/unit Warm extremes
txx / °C absolute Tmax
dtx25/day summer days Tmax > 25 °C (SU)
dtx30e/day hot days Tmax >=30 °C
dtx35e/day very hot days Tmax >= 35 °C
dtn20/day tropical nights Tmin > 20 °C (TR)
ditxgnr/day heat wave duration index (HWDI)
ditgnr90/day warm spell days
itxgnr90/day maximum duration of warm spell (TXHW90 in Climdex)
dtgnr90/% Tavg > 90th percentile of normal period (TG90p)
dtngnr90/% Tmin > 90th percentile of normal period (TN90p)
dtxgnr90/day Tmax > 90th (TX90)
Index/unit Cold extremes
tnn/°C absolute Tmin
dtn0/days frost days Tmin < 0°C (FD)
itn0x/daysmaximum number of frost days Tmin < 0°C (CFD)
dtn0e/days frost days Tmin <= 0°C
t17s/°C heating degree days (HD17)
t20s°C heating degree days
dtx0/day ice days Tmax < 0°C (ID)
dtx0e/day ice days with Tmax <= 0°C
ditnlnr/day cold wave duration index (CWDI)
ditlnr10/day cold spell days (CWFI)
itnlnr10/daymaximum duration of cold spell TNCW10 Climdex)
dtlnr10/dayTavg < 10th percentile of normal period (TG10p)
dtnlnr10/dayTmin < 10th percentile of normal period (TN10p)
dtxlnr10/dayTmax < 10th percentile of normal period (TX10p)
Index/unit Precipitation Indices
rs/mm Precipitation sum
dr1/day Number of wet days
r1a/mm/day Mean wet-day precipitation
ir0xd/day Length of longest very dry period R≤1 mm
ir1xd/day Length of longest dry period R <1 mm
ir1xw/day Length of longest wet period R ≥ 1 mm
dr5/day Number of days R ≥ 5 mm
dr10 day Number of days R≥ 10
dr20/ day Number of days R≥ 20
rx1/mm Maximum daily sum
rx5/mm Maximum sum in 5 day long period
dr75gnr/day Number of days R> 75% of normal period
pdr75gnr/%Number of days R> 75% of normal period in % of wet days
r75gnr/mm Precipitation sum of days R> 75% of normal period
~95 % 99 %
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
What we have What we have donedone??
Original, complemented, quality controlled and homogenized
temperature indices series and theirs trends for 15 stations
and precipitation indices series for 58 stations
1901-2007, annual and seasonal scale
and for ~10 km gridded data
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization; Szentimrey
Siófok, Kalocsa, Miskolc; homogenizált évi átlagos minimum
Siófok Kalocsa Miskolc
Climate indices calculations require at least daily resolution of homogeneous time series.
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Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
The new version MASHv3.02 (extended also for daily
precipitation data)The algorithm for daily data homogenization is as
follows:
1. Monthly values from daily data.2. MASH homogenization procedure for monthly series,
estimation of monthly inhomogeneities.3. On the basis of estimated monthly inhomogeneities,
continuous (smooth) estimation for daily inhomogeneities.4. Homogenization of daily data.5. Quality control for homogenized daily data.6. Missing daily data complementing.7. Monthly values from homogenized, controlled and
complemented daily data.8. Test of homogeneity for the new monthly series by MASH
homogenization procedure. Repeating steps if it is necessary.
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
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Verification of homogenization
VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (MINIMUM)TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH)Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 5 2024.83 12 1232.54 13 843.11 10 735.77 3 644.61 15 631.40 6 617.90 1 579.59 2 496.33 7 438.06 8 390.13 11 384.80 4 317.23 14 309.52 9 99.56AVERAGE:649.69 Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 14 36.56 2 35.15 13 31.27 4 30.55 1 30.02 8 29.43 9 28.10 5 27.74 3 24.01 6 23.30 7 22.87 10 22.37 12 22.09 15 21.68 11 17.68AVERAGE: 26.85
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VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (MAXIMUM)TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH)Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 12 1106.40 6 1031.97 5 488.03 8 360.65 13 314.53 7 311.95 11 284.94 10 206.09 1 158.15 14 145.63 4 135.56 2 133.73 15 130.89 9 79.72 3 46.26AVERAGE:328.97Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 1 60.91 7 49.90 5 44.96 2 44.82 14 34.28 8 32.99 6 31.73 9 28.31 11 25.28 10 22.59 3 21.89 13 21.44 15 21.21 4 20.36 12 19.39AVERAGE: 32.00
Verification of homogenization
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Verification of homogenization
VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (PRECIPITATION)TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH)Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 13 175.11 10 170.34 27 137.97 17 110.87 3 81.79 20 80.32 4 76.88 18 60.28 1 59.43 ……………… 56 17.15 36 15.07 24 11.06AVERAGE: 43.10Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 2 66.34 18 59.33 37 54.23 58 51.60 20 51.54 51 48.02 1 44.91 44 43.98 52 43.85 ………………… 8 15.27 56 14.62 36 12.82AVERAGE: 29.13
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Quality control
Minimum temperature (1901-2007)Result of automatic Quality Control by MASHTotal number of errors: 2058Maximal positive error: 14.03Minimal negative error: -10.55Example: Túrkeve(55706), 18-19 February 1907 48101 47100 46401 58104 55706 64704 441211907 217 -9.0 -13.0 -16.4 -10.8 -15.0 -17.9 -10.501907 218 -6.0 -5.1 -10.0 -3.9 5.0 -7.2 -5.501907 219 -1.5 -2.5 -6.4 -4.6 10.6 -13.2 -0.601907 220 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -0.40
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
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Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Quality control
Precipitation (1901-2007)Result of automatic Quality Control by MASHTotal number of errors: 854Maximal positive error: 84.0Minimal negative error: -33.4
Base period: 1961-1990
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1901-2007 %
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizálteredeti pótolt
1961-2007 %-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizálteredeti pótolt
1976-2007 %-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizált
eredeti pótolt
The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series
TN10p
TN10p TN10p
TN90pTN90pTN90p
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Extreme climate index calculations on gridded (interpolated) daily data
TN10p, 1961-2007
no sign.
Gridding of homogenized daily data series was carried out by method MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on
Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey T., Bihari Z.)
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Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
1901-2007 %-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizálteredeti pótolt
1961-2007 %-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizálteredeti pótolt
1976-2007 %-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
Sopron
Szombathely
Keszthely
Mosonmagyaróvár
Siófok
Pécs
Baja
Kalocsa
Kecskemét
Szeged
Túrkeve
Miskolc
Debrecen
Nyíregyháza
Budapest
homogenizált
eredeti pótolt
The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series
TX10p
TX10p
TX10p
TX90pTX90p
TX90p
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Tx10p, 1961-2007
Tx90p, 1961-2007
Trends on gridded data
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Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Seminar for Homogenization and Quality
Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008 May 2008
The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series
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ConclusionConclusion
Extreme climate indices calculations for detection of climate change require good quality, homogeneous time series
In many cases the characteristics of the estimated linear trends are unambiguously unlike on the original and homogenized time series
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!