Climate Health Action Teams (CHAT) 2015 Webinar Series June 17, 2015.

Wind Power: Clean, Efficient and Healthy

Climate Health Action Teams (CHAT)2015 Webinar Series

June 17, 2015

CLIMATE HEALTH ACTION TEAM (CHAT) ACTIONS REPORT

Over 2500 CHAT and PSR members sent more than 5,ooo letters to their Senators urging them to reject proposals weakening the Clean Air Act and delaying the Clean Power Plan.

Wind Energy’s Role as a Climate Solution

Hannah Hunt, Research Analyst with the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)

Michael Goggin ,Senior Director of Research at the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)

Wind Energy’s Role as a Climate SolutionHannah Hunt and Michael Goggin

American Wind Energy Association

June 17, 2015

Small (100 kW)• Homes and farms• Remote applications (water

pumping, telecom sites)

Large, land-based (1-3 MW)•Utility-scale wind farms•Large distributed power

Large, offshore (3-7 MW)•Utility-scale wind farms, shallow coastal waters•No U.S. installations

Photo from HC Sorensen, NREL 17855

Photo from Native Energy Inc., NREL 17593

Photo from Tjaden Farms, NREL 13764Photo from Bergey Windpower

Co. Inc., NREL 02102

U.S. Wind Market: Sizes and Applications

Mid-scale(100 kW–1 MW)•Village power•Hybrid systems•Distributed power

U.S. Annual & Cumulative Wind Power Capacity Growth (Utility-Scale Wind)

Wind Capacity Installations, by State

Under Construction Activity

Wind Energy Share of Electricity Generation, by State

Wind Energy Saves Water

• 68 billion gallons of water consumption avoided by wind generation in 2014

Wind Energy Avoids Carbon Emissions

• 126,000,000 metric tons of CO2 avoided during 2014, or the equivalent of 26.4 million cars worth of emissions

• DOE/LBNL Annual Wind Report: 60% decline in wind purchase prices over last four years, including incentives

• Lazard 2014: Wind as the lowest cost energy source, excluding incentives

Year Average Wind Purchase Price, $/MWh

2009 $68.19

2010 $61.08

2011 $45.54

2012 $38.40

2013 $25.59

The Declining Costs of Wind

Utility Purchasers of Wind

• Public Service Company of Oklahoma - In announcing three long-term wind power contracts in February 2014, the Public Service Company of Oklahoma reported the move could reduce costs for customers by $53 million within the first year.

• Xcel Energy Minnesota - “Wind prices are extremely competitive right now, offering lower costs than other possible resources, like natural gas plants.”

• Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp. - "Low-cost wind energy provides AECC with a hedge against fluctuating natural gas energy prices ... We will continue to pursue energy options that allow AECC’s member cooperatives to provide reliable electricity at the lowest possible cost.”

• MidAmerican Energy - “The expansion is planned to be built at no net cost to the company’s customers and will help stabilize electric rates over the long term by providing a rate reduction totaling $10 million per year by 2017, commencing with a $3.3 million reduction in 2015.”

• Alabama Power - In signing off on the contract in 2011, the Alabama Public Service Commission noted that the “price of energy from the wind facility is expected to be lower than the cost the company would incur to produce that energy from its own resource ... with the resulting energy savings flowing directly to the Company’s customers.”

• Xcel Energy Colorado - In a late-2011 order approving a wind power purchase by Xcel Energy, the state Public Utilities Commission stated that “the contract will save ratepayers $100 million on a net-present-value basis over its 25-year term under a base-case natural gas price scenario” while providing the opportunity to “lock in a price for 25 years.”

• Xcel Energy Southwestern Public Service Company – The New Mexico PRC approved $19-23/MWh wind PPAs in November 2013, noting the contracts will result in consumer savings of $590 million over their 20-year life.

Technology Advances: Wind Projects by Hub Height

Growth in Non-Utility Purchasers

Federal and State Policy

State Policy: Texas CREZ Transmission Lines

DOE Wind Vision: 20% Wind Energy by 2030

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Range of AEO14 gas price projections AEO14 reference case gas price projection Wind 2011 PPA execution (3,533 MW, 34 contracts) Wind 2012 PPA execution (721 MW, 9 contracts) Wind 2013 PPA execution (1,788 MW, 10 contracts)

2013

$/M

Wh

Source: U.S. DOE 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, available at: http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/2013_Wind_Technologies_Market_Report_Final3.pdf

Wind as a Long Term Hedge; Prices w/ PTC are Below the Current & Expected Future Cost of Gas

Wind concentrated in carbon-heavy regions

Wind’s 2013 savings, CO2 (tons)

Wind’s 2013 savings, SO2

(tons)

Wind’s 2013 savings, NOx

(tons)

Wind CO2 savings,

lbs/MWhMISO 34,344,200 56,391 30,042 1,834Texas 22,235,300 29,681 11,998 1,341SPP 19,099,400 26,544 18,772 1,675PJM 13,906,200 33,281 12,238 1,545California 10,044,500 900 7,532 985CO+WY 10,242,200 7,878 10,057 1,771

Northwest and Interior West 9,005,700 5,805 9,976 1,404Southeast 3,805,700 9,216 2,523 1,350Northeast 2,948,600 2,564 1,925 1,109Southwest 642,600 151 465 1,116AK+HI 551,781 1,150 1,785 1,722Total 126,826,000 172,300 105,500 1,500

% of wind MWh displacing coal in region

Wind MWh, share of national

85.4% 22.3%

38.2% 19.6%

67.1% 13.3%

66.4% 10.7%

10.0% 12.2%

70.8% 6.7%

41.8% 7.6%

53.9% 3.4%

14.2% 3.2%

24.2% 0.7%

14.9% 0.4%

54.1% 100%

-More than half of U.S. wind is in regions where wind has a 65+% coal displacement factor -54% of U.S. wind MWh displace coal

Source: AWEA analysis using EPA AVERT tool, EIA 2013 wind output data

Country Wind % 2002

Wind % 2012

CO2/MWh %

change

Denmark 12.41%

33.42% - 41.35%

Portugal 0.79% 22.01% - 30.62%

Spain 3.81% 16.63% - 30.14%

Ireland 1.54% 14.53% - 28.08%

Germany* 2.70% 8.05% - 12.78%

All OECD Europe

1.09% 5.73% - 12.49%

Germany would have seen a far larger decline in carbon intensity had it not, for unrelated reasons, reduced the share of electricity it obtains from nuclear energy from around 30 percent in 2002 to 16 percent in 2012.

Europe: Very strong relationship between wind and electric sector carbon reductions

Source: IEA data

Wind’s lifecycle emissions among the lowest of non-emitting resources

Source: NREL/IPCC literature review and harmonization analysis, http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/sustain_lca_results.html

Wind provides large societal benefitsAWEA analysis of Texas data shows gross benefits of $102/MWh of wind, half fuel cost savings and half environmental externalities, far greater than the current cost of wind energy

DOE: Wind has largest role for low-cost CPP compliance

DOE: Wind has large role in all CPP scenarios

Wind saves billions annually on 111(d) compliance cost

AWEA economic optimization analysis for 111d compliance, using current wind costs, EIA data, EPA’s Alternative method for setting state RE targets, and the assumption that ¾ of EPA’s assumed EE and ½ of coal heat rate improvements occur.

Iowa: Where the Tall Turbines Grow!A Model for Clean Energy

A Strong Economy

Healthy, Happy People

Maureen McCue, MD, PhDCoordinator, Iowa PSR; member, PSR National Board

Iowa: Where the Tall Turbines Grow!

A Model for Clean EnergyA Strong Economy

Healthy, Happy People

Emissions

Global Climate Change

Air Quality: Ground-level ozone, smog, fine particulatesAtmospheric Deposition: acid rain, nitrogen & mercury

Co-pollutantsNitrogen Oxides

Sulfur dioxideMercury

etc., etc…

CO2

Reminder

Also

Goal Clean Power Plan (CPP): Reduce Coal Burning & CO2

Halt Climate Change

Additionally CPP means Multiple Direct Health Co-Benefits:• A strong carbon standard would ↓ emissions of

multiple pollutants harmful to human & environmental health (esp. PM2.5, NOx, SO2)

• Lowered emissions = improved air quality and less atmospheric deposition of pollution like acid rain. All states would see benefits (those with more shuttered coal plants, reap greater benefits).

• The stronger the standards, the greater and more widespread the added benefits.

Summary Public Health Effects Coal (U.S. 2005)Fine Particulates (PM2.5)

130,000 to 320,000 premature deaths

180,000 non-fatal heart attacks

200,000 hospital & ER visits

2.5 million asthma exacerbations

18 million lost days of work

Ground Level Ozone (O3)4,700-19,000 premature deaths77,000 hospital admissions & ER visits

11 million school absence days

(Fann et al. 2012)

Iowa’s Experience: Wind = 28.5% Electricity Generated• $10 Billion in Capital Investment in Iowa’s wind

industry• 5,708 MW Wind Energy installed by end of 2014 (by

2014 Iowa’s wind industry offset 9.2 metric tons of CO2 = removing ~1,600,000 cars off roads as well as saving >3.2 billion gals H2O/yr)

• 3,198 Utility Scale Turbines w/ 98 projects on line producing energy

• 14 manufacturers turbines/blades; 75 wind-related companies

• 6,000-7,000 employed in all wind related activities• Landowners lease payments = $17.1 million/yr.• Iowa’s electric rates are lower than the national

average

Iowa’s Potential: We’ve only just begun!

• 75% of Iowa suitable for Wind Energy Development• Estimated total resources = 570,000 MW of wind energy

• Wind power is capable of meeting > 44x the state’s current electricity needs

• Current goal is 6,300 MW by end of 2015 (~3 coal fired power plants); then 20,000 MW by 2030

• Re. Intermittancy: The more wind turbines installed, the less additional variability there is in the amount of power that they produce. (contrast w/ abrupt failures of conventional power plants & sudden loss large amts. power

• Additionally, ea. MW hour of wind generation prevents the loss of up to 600 gal. of H2O from fossil fuel power plant cooling

Iowa is a leader in renewable energy & energy efficiency.

Iowa can do much more to achieve the full benefits of renewable energy & energy efficiency:For our economy, energy security, public health, the environment, & long-term prosperity.

Many Iowans Conclude: Wind energy is a clean energy source providing communities w/ decreased greenhouse gas emissions, air quality improvements, economic and corresponding human health benefits!

Wind Power: Clean, Efficient and Healthy

Questions/Comments

This month’s Climate Health Action Team action:

Write to your member of congress and urge them to support clean, healthy and efficient wind energy by making wind production tax credits (PTC) permanent and oppose bills eliminating PTC from tax code.

• Early this year, Congress failed to extend the production tax credits (PTC) for wind.

• Congress must enact a permanent extension of this incentive to ensure the continued growth of clean and renewable energy industries.

• Congress must support wind tax credits and oppose efforts such as H.R. 1901 (PTC Elimination Act), introduced by Rep. Marchant.

Action Url: psr.org/WindAction

Hold onto your hats!

Here comes the Papal Encyclical!

The Next Climate Health Action Team

(CHAT) Webinar:Wednesday, July 15, 2015

8:00-9:00 pm eastern

Taking Action in Your State for Clean Power Plan Success

For more information contact: Paz Artaza-Regan, Climate Organizer: [email protected] or 202-587-5251Barb Gottlieb, Environment & Health Director: [email protected]

www.PSR.org 202-667-4260