www.aclimateforlife.org/ A Climate for Life Presentation at the California Academy of Sciences by Michael Totten Conservation International [email protected] February 3, 2009
Jan 19, 2015
www.aclimateforlife.org/
A Climate for Life Presentation
at theCalifornia Academy
of Sciences
by
Michael Totten Conservation International
February 3, 2009
4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven
FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE
MASS POVERTY
EXTINCTION SPASM
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
$2.5 trillionalmost a quarter of
the US economy is at risk from the
weatherlarge forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would bedetermining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2008
2050
now 45GtCO2
reduce to<10 GtCO2
2100reduce to<4 GtCO2
3%/yr
19x2%/yr
7x
The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
agriculture5%
bldgs EE15%
transport EE15%
industry EE15%
solar15%
wind15%
biomass10%
geothermal1%
oil1%
gas2%
coal1%
forests5%
Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
Assumes:
1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;
2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;
3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO2
“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
5 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars.
US GHG levels
13 million hectares burned each year
6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate
Direct yields from tropical lands converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber are:
equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton.
Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options. Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric concentrations of CO2by as much as 130 ppm this century.
For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 timesthis amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
Sir Nicholas Stern
$-$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vsEcological storage (REDD)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
U.S. Fossil- fueled Electricity Carbon Offset cost nationally annually
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
~$100 billion~3 ¢ per kWh
~$18 billion~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation
(REDD)
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring wilderness, while helping people, species & climate
Ecuador collaborative offset projects
Preserve habitat for threatened Andean Spectacled Bear, Howler Monkey, and Northern Naked Tailed Armadillo
FCCBForest Restoration
for Climate, Community and Biodiversity
1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10.Endogenous learning capacity11.Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities
12.Uninteresting target for malicious disruption
Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system
DOZEN CRITERIA
including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?through the entire lifespan?
from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?
adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?low recovery cost and lost time?
intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
scalable innovation possibilities?
off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
A Defensible Smart Energy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowastepower
Geo-thermal
Nat gas
Bio-fuels
Oil imports
Coal CCS
nuclearTar sand
Oil shale
Coal to liquids
Coal no
CCS
Promote
CHP + biowastes
Economically AffordableSafeCleanSecureResilient & flexibleEcologically sustainableEnvironmentally benignFails gracefully, not catastroRebounds easily from failuresEndogenous learning capacityRobust experience curvesUninteresting military target
Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency,
onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities.
KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLINGKEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING
Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins Ralph Cavanagh
Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
13.8 billion coal railroad
cars.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
OR 17 million LNG tanker shipments.
OR 10,000 giant offshore oil platforms.
Envision eliminating the need this century for:
OR 6,700 large nuclear
reactors.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up Brownfield
Sites w/ PV solar
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
+$11,024 1.702
+$15,373 1.892
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Aluminum
+$14,237 2.141
+$18,586 2.331
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Polished Stone
ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure
Material Replaced
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Commercial New Construction Green Building Feebate
Proposed policy for adoption by Portland, OR, Jan. 2009
Vehicle-to-Grid
Convergences & EmergencesConnecting the 1 TW Grid with the nearly 3 TW Vehicle fleet
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?
Global Web Mesh
Gathering Data & Harvesting
Collective Intelligence
Global Wired Mesh Resources
www.wikinomics.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Networks
http://www.shirky.com/
http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/855937/
And incredible video at:And incredible video at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgYE75gkzkM
5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet
published content
published contentuser
generated content
user generated
content
“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”
45 million global users 1 billion+ global users
collectiveintelligence
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
Cognitive Surplus
100 million hours to create Wikipedia – same as hours Americans watch TV ads each weekend.
The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Clay Shirkey’s
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
2010-2012
Web3.0+
1 trillion sites
published content
Semantically-linked RW webCollectiveintelligence Smart Grid
3 billion global users
User generated content
5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Avert Mass Species ExtinctionPromote Green Prosperity & Well-being
GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
LEED Certified Green Buildings
CA
Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
Figures of MeritGreat Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2
Still available for farming and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered
Droughts
Thank you !
StarAppleMesh
Environmental/ health
externalities $10+ trillion
Military/ Security
externalities $10+ trillion
USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000
$25 trillion energy costs
$325 billion Dept of Energy
4% for all efficiency & 5% all renewables
Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not RepresentCustomer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions
$8 trillion losses price
volatlity
Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario
2/3 efficiency
solar, wind biofuels
• Lower energy costs
• Lower price volatility
• Lower Environmental & Health externalities
• Lower military & security externalities
DOE budget
Priorities PrioritiesOutcomes OutcomesOil industryUtility industryCoal industryNatural gas industryNuclear industryLarge Hydro industry
ConsumersRetailersSuppliersManufacturersNatural resource sector
High energy costsVolatile PricesSecurity vulnerabilityHigher pollution levelsLong-term environmental damage
• Shift of capital from utility sector to retail sector
• Greening supply chain out of avoided utility costs
• Tax-free reductions in air & water pollution
2007-2030
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered