Climate factors & their impact on coffee production PSB CABI

Coffee & Climate Change – global view

Climate factors and their impact on coffee production from a global perspective

PS Baker

Belo Horizonte, 9th September 2013

Main points of this talk

• Climate change is now a global reality

• It is manifesting itself in a number of different ways

• It is already affecting agriculture

• It is already affecting coffee farmers

• This is not a talk about what will happen in the future, it is about what is already happening

Climate change

• Global temperatures have been rising – this is 100% certain – the decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record

But global land temps vary a lot from year to year

90% of extra heat is stored in the oceans • The oceans affect land temperatures

Complex ocean movements help to give rise to uneven land warming

Precipitation changes too are complex

• Long-term trends from 1950 to 2010 in annual mean observed precipitation

Global maps are political tools

• But these maps are not much practical use for coffee farmers!

• We need much better resolution

• We will look at this in a later talk

Signs of increasing strength of Niño/Niña

• Cobb et al. Science 339, 67 (2013)

ENSO variability in Line Islands modern coral δ18O records and the NIÑO3.4 index [Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, version 3 (ERSST v.3b)] (29).

Short-term extreme events are increasing Munich Re data (2012)

Massive increase in extreme events in Central America

1990-2008

1970-1989

Number of hurricanes & tropical storms

Massive increase in extreme events in Indonesia

Farmer statements

• “The coffee plants are badly affected --- flowering is stopping. Last year alone we lost about 40 % of our coffee production because of climate change,” (Willington Wamayeye, MD Gumutindo Coffee Co-operative , Uganda.

• “It all depends on the climate, … What kills us are the excesses.” (Luis Fernando Botero FNC Antioquia, Colombia)

• “The weather no longer meets my expectations”. (Vietnamese farmer Cu M’gar, Central Highlands)

Farmer surveys c&c project

Brazil (NE Minas

Gerais)

Trifinio Cent. America

Vietnam Central

Highlands

Tanzania Mbeya district

Uganda coffee headlines since 2009

• Ugandan Coffee Exports May Decline 11% in January After Drought (12 Jan 2009 Bloomberg)

• Uganda Business News: Rains hamper coffee harvests in Uganda (30 Apr 2009 www.ugpulse.com)

• Uganda: Hostile Weather Hurts Coffee Volumes, Revenue (23 Jun 2009 allafrica.com)

Uganda coffee headlines since 2009

• Drought, wilt affect Uganda’s coffee exports (18 Oct 2009 East African Business Week)

• Uganda Cuts January Coffee-Export Forecast Because of Drought (14 Jan 2010 Bloomberg)

• Uganda’s January Coffee Exports Fell 20% on Drought, Board Says (4 Feb 2010 Bloomberg)

• Hundreds feared dead after Uganda landslides (3 Mar 2010 www.bbc.co.uk )

Uganda headlines

• Uganda's Coffee Exports Hit By Heavy Rains (21 Apr 2010 internationalsupermarketnews.com)

• Uganda's robusta exports drop 21 pct in 9 months (volatile weather & disease) (20 Jul 2010 Reuters)

• Uganda Reduces Coffee-Export Forecast After Drought (12 Aug 2010 Bloomberg)

• Heavy rains could damage Uganda coffee harvest: Union (7 Sept 2010 Reuters)

Uganda headlines

• Climate change affecting coffee production (15 Oct 2010 www.monitor.co.ug)

• Fairtrade coffee producers face challenge of climate change (24 Jan 2011 www.guardian.co.uk)

• Weather patterns affect Uganda's Coffee exports (02 Apr 2011 ww.w.busiweek.com)

• Drought cuts coffee export figures (14 Apr 2011 www.newvision.co.ug )

Uganda headlines

• Uganda – the coffee king desperate for a downpour (22 Nov 2011 www.guardian.co.uk)

• Changing climate endangers coffee (30 Nov 2011 New Vision)

• Uganda's Coffee Exports May Decline 27% in May on Rains (16 May 2012 Bloomberg)

• Mount Elgon communities devastated by another landslide (18 Jul 2012 New Vision)

Uganda headlines

• Uganda Coffee Exports Drop for Second Month as Rains Curb Drying (8 Jan 2013 Bloomberg)

• Uganda - Drought seen hurting 2013/14 coffee crop (23 Jul 2013 FO Lichts)

• Landslides bury five villages in Bududa (11 Aug 2013 www.monitor.co.ug)

• Landslides wipe out 2,000 acres of coffee in Bududa (27 Aug 2013 New Vision)

Bududa, Uganda 300+ coffee farmers killed

Bududa, Uganda 300+ coffee farmers killed

Coffee Increased pests & diseases

• Kenya: Coffee Leaf Rust and Coffee Berry Disease now found at higher altitudes than previously (Mugo et al., 2012)

• Tanzania: On the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro coffee berry borer is now found at elevations 300 m higher than those at which the insect was present 10 years ago (Magina et al., 2010)

• Colombia: This epidemic (rust) has been characterized by … crops located above 1600 m.a.s.l., where no control was necessary before 2008. (Rozo et al., 2012)

Unreliable weather

• India: “Heavy rains followed by intermittent sunshine, higher day and night temperatures, hail, unpredictable NE monsoon, high winds … high temperatures during flowering and fruit-setting periods. The ‘two rains have become unpredictable’ Dr Jayarama (Indian Coffee Board, 2010)

• Kenya: "We have seen climate change in intermittent rainfall patterns, extended drought and very high temperatures,“ Dr Kimemia (Kenya Coffee Research, 2010)

• Uganda: “On one hand is the more erratic rainfall in the March to June season, bringing drought and reductions in crop yields and plant varieties, while on the other is the rainfall towards the end of the year, coming in more intense and destructive downpours bringing floods, landslides and soil erosion.” Seasons not shortening, but rather becoming more unreliable. (Magrath J. Oxfam, 2008)

Problem - hard data is rare Costa Rica Fournier & Di Stefano (2004)

• Finca San Luis, (Ciudad Colón 750 m asl)

Summary

• Long-term warming trend leads to decline of low altitude coffee

• Major weather Niño/Niña type events which may be more extreme because of CC

• More extreme short term storms (warmer temps mean air holds more water)

• It is becoming more difficult to produce coffee

Take-home message

• “Climatic variability is the main factor responsible for changes in coffee yields all over the world.” (ICO report, 2009)

• This variability is increasing

• It is affecting coffee production and coffee farmers in many countries

• Some of them it is killing – well over 300 deaths through landslides since 2010

• We must do something – it should be constructive, systematic, scientific, participatory

• We must learn from recent experiences

It’s Global Weirding expect the unexpected

Thank you, obrgado, gracias, merci, amesege'nallo‘, asante sana, cảm ơn bạn, terima kasih, salamat, 谢谢