Climate & Ecosystems Program Kenric Osgood Office of Science & Technology National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA
Jan 17, 2018
Climate & EcosystemsProgram
Kenric OsgoodOffice of Science & Technology
National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA
Performance Objective:Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems.
Climate Strategy:Develop the ability to predict the consequences of climate change on ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems, conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating climate information into physical-biological models.
Climate & Ecosystems
End-State:
An ability to predict probable consequences of climate change on ecological systems enabling improved management of living marine resources
Requirements:
Monitor, understand and predict the impacts of global climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems.
• Improve management of marine fisheries, marine mammals and protected marine species by accounting for the impacts of climate variability and change on marine systems and their living marine resources.
• Evaluate and provide forecasts of climate impacts on coastal ecosystems, including coral ecosystems, and provide the ability to predict future impacts.
Capabilities:
Monitor changes in coastal and marine ecosystems
Develop biophysical indicators and models
Climate & Ecosystems
Climate & Ecosystems
Unique Role of Program:
NOAA has management responsibilities for coastal and living marine resources, including marine fisheries and protected marine species.
No other program within NOAA has the responsibility to account for ecosystem responses to climate variability/change.
Products/Climate Services:
Delivery to living marine resource and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability/change into the management of coastal and living marine resources.
- Indices- Models
Climate & Ecosystems
Highlights/Past Successes:
North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP)
Climate & Ecosystems
Activities within the Program
Role of the competitive programs
Climate & Ecosystems
Impact of FY05 and FY06 Budget on Program Activities
Role of internal/external funding
Priorities for the Program based on the FY05 and FY06 Budget
Climate & Ecosystems
Future directions for the ProgramFY07-13 under constrained budget
Continue North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
Build a competitive component to the Climate & Ecosystems Program.
Expand the scope of the Climate & Ecosystems Program.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PDO
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Coho Salmon
YEAR1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percent Survival0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
PDO
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Amomaly of
No. of adults (thousands)
returning to spawn
Spring Chinook Salmonmean = 108,000 The anomaly of
counts of Chinook salmon at the Bonneville Dam.
Percent of coho salmon that return to their hatcheries.
These returns are “linked to the PDO”
During cold phase of the PDO salmon do well and vice versa
Migration pattern of Pacific sardines and Pacific hake, redrawn from Saunders and McFarlane 1997. Idealized conditions are indicated, since the extent and location of spawning and feeding habitats, and the coastal migrations of hake and sardine vary with ocean and climate conditions.
Is marsh building adequate to keep pace with subsidence and sea-level rise?
Widespread Thermal Stress and Coral Bleaching • Thermal stress in the Caribbean reached record-breaking levels• Severe coral bleaching throughout the eastern Caribbean (~ 25% mortality)
2005 CARIBBEAN EVENT
0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent
Percent Coral Cover BleachedCaribbean ‘05 DHW Annual Composite
• Coupling retrospective analysis with SST forecast models, Bleaching Forecasts would allow researchers to plan accelerated monitoring and managers to take actions to reduce other stressors
Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs)
1998
blea
chin
g
2005
ble
achi
ng
Coral Reef Bleaching Forecasts
A Changing Thermal Regime for Marine Ecosystems
Benthic marine calcifiers
Shell dissolution in live pteropod
A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems
• As ocean saturation state decreases, a concomitant reduction in calcification rates can occur.
– Reduced extension rates– Weaker skeletons
• Monitoring changes in marine ecosystems in response to ocean acidification will demand improving our ecosystem observing capabilities at multiple scales.
Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem
Climate and EutrophicationSeven year correlation between monthly averaged
precipitation and chlorophyll anomalies along SE coast.Shown below: data for February 1998