Climate, Disasters and Food Insecurity with examples from Africa Maxx Dilley Disaster and Risk Management International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
Climate, Disasters and Food Insecurity with examples from Africa
Maxx DilleyDisaster and Risk Management
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
Outline
1. Climate, disasters, and food insecurity2. Analysis of climate-related food insecurity
risks3. Climate prediction, impacts prediction4. Risk management, examples from Africa
food security outlooks for contingency planningprotecting livelihoods by protecting livestock tradepreventing malaria epidemics
1) Climate, Disasters and Food Insecurity
Disaster risk hotspots (Dilley, Chen, Deichmann et al, forthcoming)
Economic loss risks
Mortality risks
Hunger hotspots(CIESIN, Millennium Development Project)
Disaster mortality risk hotspots: Drought and floods
2) Analysis of Climate-Related Food Insecurity Risks(Focus on Africa)
Food economy zones
cropsag.labour
gifts
purchaselivestock
The baseline picture
Hazard example:50% crop failure
cropsag.labour
gifts
deficitpurchaselivestock
Effect on access to crops
Coping step example:Sell 1 additional goat
cropsag.labour
gifts
deficitlivestock+ purchase
purchase
Final result
Information on response strategies allows an analysis of how households will cope with the effects of a hazard (Slides courtesy Food Economy Group/FEWS)
Outcome = Baseline + Hazard + Response
Households become food insecure when they cannot meet 100% of food requirements
% a
nnua
l foo
d re
quire
men
ts
Benson C. and Edward J. Clay. 1998
3) Climate Prediction, Impacts Prediction
Corr_coef. = 0.8
MOS CORRECTED
OBSERVATION
Statistically corrected ECHAM4 GCMOct-Dec precipitation to a station (Indeje)
Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec
NDVI forecast, OND, Eastern Kenya
0
0.5
1
1.5
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97
Year
inde
x predicted
observed
Tailoring process for decision-support
Identify risk managers and decision calendar/optionsDesign operationally useful productConduct joint researchProductApplicationTesting
4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa
Food Security Outlooks for Contingency Planning in the Greater Horn of Africa
Seasonal climate forecast (USGS)
Expected crop performance (USGS)
Northern season: JJA Equatorial season: SOND
Expected October forage deviations (Texas A&M)
Food insecurity in August, 2004 and outlook for DecemberCurrent (August) Outlook for December
Food security outlook compared to reported food security in DecemberOutlook for December Reported in January
4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa
Protecting Livelihoods by Protecting Livestock Trade between the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East
Billion dollar livestock trade between the GHA and the Middle EastRVF livestock disease outbreaks lead to imposition of trade barriersMosquito-borne, climate/environment-relatedModel provides early warning for surveillance and controlRed Sea Livestock Trade Commission
Livestock trade: Rift Valley Fever risk model
Cumulative rainfall threshold for Kenya outbreaks (Davies)
NDVI threshold, 1997 outbreak (Linthicum et al, Gadain)
4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa
preventing malaria epidemics in southern Africa
Malaria incidence: BotswanaM. Thomson, S. Mason, S.J. Connor
year
200219981994199019861982
ln m
alar
ia in
cide
nce
& M
EWS
outp
uts
1.5
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
-1.5
CMAP MEWS
DEMETER MEWS
ln malaria incidence
— DJF rainfall (obs. March)
--- DJF rainfall (predicted, Nov)
Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05
Malariaearly warning poster,distributedto regionalhealth andcontrol offices
Conclusion
Byassessing risksidentifying risk factors, andunderstanding who manages them
We cancreate information and capacityto manage risks instead of managing emergencies.