CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Philippines and ENSO (EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)

CLIMATE Concepts, CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Climate of the

Philippines and ENSO Philippines and ENSO

(EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)(EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)

Ernesto R. VercelesErnesto R. VercelesPAGASAPAGASA

01 December 200501 December 2005

WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE?WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE?

Determines the availability of water or soil Determines the availability of water or soil moisture.moisture. Serves as a major factor in the development of Serves as a major factor in the development of human human settlements.settlements.

Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as;Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as;

• existence of drought or floodsexistence of drought or floods

• occurrence of destructive typhoonsoccurrence of destructive typhoons

• plant pest and diseasesplant pest and diseases

Influences the Influences the timingtiming of many economic activities of many economic activities

• Beginning of plowing, plantingBeginning of plowing, planting

• postponement of fishing activitiespostponement of fishing activities

• Conduct of field operations and othersConduct of field operations and others

Definition of TermsDefinition of Terms

CLIMATECLIMATE - is the long-term average of weatheris the long-term average of weather. .

NORMAL (Climatological Normal)NORMAL (Climatological Normal) – the average – the average value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the World World Meteorological Organization Meteorological Organization (WMO). (WMO).

WEATHERWEATHER - - is the state of the atmosphere at a particular is the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and timeplace and time. It is measured in terms of such parameters . It is measured in terms of such parameters as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric pressure, pressure, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, weather can weather can change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.

Definition of TermsDefinition of Terms

ANOMALY (Departure from Normal)ANOMALY (Departure from Normal) – the – the deviation of rainfall or temperature from deviation of rainfall or temperature from climatological climatological normal normal ..

SEASONSEASON - a division of the year according to some regularly a division of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomenarecurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or , usually astronomical or climatic. climatic. In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry season).season).

EXTREMES OF CLIMATEEXTREMES OF CLIMATE – The highest and lowest The highest and lowest value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or season). season).

Strong windsStrong winds

• Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones• TornadoesTornadoes• Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity

Natural Hazards Associated with Extreme ClimateNatural Hazards Associated with Extreme Climate

HazardsHazards CausesCauses

DroughtDrought

• Extended dry periodsExtended dry periods• Early end of rainy seasonEarly end of rainy season• Weak monsoon activityWeak monsoon activity• Less number of tropical Less number of tropical

cyclonescyclones

FloodsFloods

• Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones• Intense monsoon rainsIntense monsoon rains• Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity

Storm surgesStorm surges

• Passage of intense tropical Passage of intense tropical cyclones over strategic / cyclones over strategic / prone areasprone areas

Heat / cold wavesHeat / cold waves • Monsoon surges and Monsoon surges and other seasonal other seasonal abnormalitiesabnormalities

• SunSun

Influencing factors Influencing factors (Climate Controls)(Climate Controls)

Latitude Latitude (North/South)(North/South)

Land and WaterLand and Water

Altitude/Altitude/Mountain Mountain barriersbarriers• Semi-permanent Semi-permanent

High/Low Pressure High/Low Pressure SystemsSystems

• Winds, Air MassesWinds, Air Masses

• Ocean Currents/ Ocean Currents/ TemperaturesTemperatures

• Geography/Geography/TopographyTopography

• Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones

• Linear SystemsLinear Systems ITCZITCZ

Frontal SystemFrontal System

• ENSOENSO

Geography and topography

Pacific ocean

China Sea

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

LL

LL

HH

JANUARYJANUARYFEBRUARYFEBRUARY

HH

LL

LL

MARCHMARCH

LL

HH

HH

HH

APRILAPRIL

LLLL

HH

HH

HH

MAYMAY

LLLL

HH

HHHH

JUNEJUNE

LL

HH

HHHH

LL

JULYJULY

LL

HH

HH

LL

LL

AUGUSTAUGUST

LL

HH

HH

LL

LL

SEPTEMBERSEPTEMBER

LL

HH

HH

LL

LL

OCTOBEROCTOBER

HH

LL

HH

LL

HH

NOVEMBERNOVEMBER

HH

LL

LL

HH

HH

DECEMBERDECEMBER

LL

LL

HH

SEMI-PERMANENT SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH/LOWHIGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMSPRESSURE SYSTEMS

Southwest windflow

Northeast windflow

Easterlies (trade winds)

JANUARYJANUARYFEBRUARYFEBRUARYMARCHMARCHAPRILAPRILMAYMAYJUNEJUNEJULYJULYAUGUSTAUGUSTSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBEROCTOBEROCTOBERNOVEMBERNOVEMBERDECEMBERDECEMBER

OCEAN TEMPERATURESOCEAN TEMPERATURES

ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

LL

LLITCZ

COLD FRONT

ITCZ

ITCZ

ITCZ

Linear Linear SystemsSystems

Areas of Formation of Tropical Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones and Annual Average Number Cyclones and Annual Average Number

WorldwideWorldwide

An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; 30 of which form in the western north pacific area 30 of which form in the western north pacific area

Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)

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Weather

JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD

Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)

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THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON

Rainfall and TemperatureRainfall and Temperature

Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon

from 1971-2000

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rainfall

rainy days

Normal Temperature over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon from 1971-2000

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JAN

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mean temp

MalaybalayMalaybalay

THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON

Rainfall and TemperaturesRainfall and Temperatures

Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Agromet Station in Musuan, Bukidnon from

1978-2001

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150200

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JAN

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rainfall

rainy days

Normal Temperature over PAGASA Agromet Station in Musuan, Bukidnon from 1978-2001

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30

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JAN

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mp

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max temp

min temp

mean temp

MusuanMusuan

Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) associated with wet season in the country

Northeast Monsoon Season (Amihan) associated with relatively dry season in the country

Annual Rainfall Anomalies in Malaybalay (1952-2004)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.01952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Sta

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ard

An

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alie

s

Year-to-year Rainfall Events in Malaybalay

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1952

1955

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1961

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1967

1970

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1976

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1982

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1988

1991

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1997

2000

2003

Year

Perc

entil

e Ra

nk

floodflood

droughtdrought

El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Pacific (CEEP).

Observed Observed Sea Surface Sea Surface TemperaturTemperatur

ee

Analyzed Analyzed Sea Surface Sea Surface TemperaturTemperatur

ee

EL EL NIÑONIÑO

LA LA NIÑANIÑA

LoweLower r

temptemp

LoweLower r

temptemp

HigheHigher r

temptemp

HigheHigher r

temptemp

CooleCooler r

temptemp

CooleCooler r

temptemp

WarmeWarmer tempr temp

WarmeWarmer tempr temp

PhilippinesPhilippines PhilippinesPhilippines

PhilippinesPhilippines PhilippinesPhilippines

CEEP warmingCEEP warming CEEP coolingCEEP cooling

COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFICOSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

GLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSOGLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSO

EL NIÑOEL NIÑO LA NIÑALA NIÑA

EL NIÑOEL NIÑO LA NIÑALA NIÑARainmanRainman RainmanRainman

Mean Monthly Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)

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Jan

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Climat

La Nina

El Nino

Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay during ENSO and non-ENSO Eventsduring ENSO and non-ENSO Events

During El Niño Episode During La Niña Episode 

DrierDrier weather conditions weather conditions WetterWetter weather conditions weather conditions

Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO on Philippine climategeneral influences of ENSO on Philippine climate

Below normal rainfallBelow normal rainfall

Above normal air temperaturesAbove normal air temperatures

Weak monsoon activityWeak monsoon activity

- but, occurrence of isolated heavy - but, occurrence of isolated heavy rainfall in short duration is rainfall in short duration is also also possiblepossible

- delayed onset of the rainy - delayed onset of the rainy seasonseason- early termination of the rainy - early termination of the rainy seasonseason

Weak tropical cyclones activityWeak tropical cyclones activity- tropical cyclones follow tracks - tropical cyclones follow tracks

further off the Philippinesfurther off the Philippines- less number of tropical cyclones - less number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)of Responsibility (PAR)

Above normal rainfallAbove normal rainfallNear-to-below normal air Near-to-below normal air temperaturestemperatures

Moderate to strong monsoon Moderate to strong monsoon activityactivity

- increased cloudiness and widespread - increased cloudiness and widespread rainsrains

- near normal to early onset of the - near normal to early onset of the rainy seasonrainy season

Moderate to Strong tropical Moderate to Strong tropical cyclones activitycyclones activity

- near normal cyclone tracks (near - near normal cyclone tracks (near and/or crossing the country)and/or crossing the country)- near-to-above normal cyclone - near-to-above normal cyclone occurrences in the PARoccurrences in the PAR- rain-effective cyclones- rain-effective cyclones

CLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINESCLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES

THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON

Rainfall and TemperatureRainfall and Temperature

Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon

from 1971-2000

0

50100

150

200

250300

350

400

JAN

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

Month

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Da

y

rainfall

rainy days

Normal Temperature over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon from 1971-2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

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T

NO

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DEC

Month

Te

mp

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ture

(d

eg

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max temp

min temp

mean temp

MalaybalayMalaybalay

Laging tandaan: Laging tandaan: “Ang taong “Ang taong

laging handa, laging handa, sakuna’y walang sakuna’y walang

panama!”panama!”

Maraming Salamat Po…Maraming Salamat Po…

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