Climate Change: the Swiss Perspective Dr. Lorenz Martin Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Applied Physics University of Bern
Dec 20, 2015
Climate Change:the Swiss Perspective
Dr. Lorenz Martin
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research andInstitute of Applied Physics
University of Bern
Prologue
Climate change is already taking place …
(IP
CC
, 2
00
7)
black: observed temperature anomalyred: modelled temperature anomaly, with anthropogenic factorsblue: modelled temperature anomaly, without anthropogenic factors
Prologue
Climate change is already taking place … … and we know why
Sie
ge
nth
ale
r e
t a
l., (
20
05
)Jo
os
& S
pa
hn
i (2
00
8)
last 10‘000years
last 200years
last 50years
Outline
Prologue
> How can we determine the human impact on climate?
> What will happen with the climate in the future?
> What can we do against climate change?
Conclusions
How can we determine the human impact on climate?
The greenhouse effect
(Dennis Hartmann)
without greenhouseeffect: -18°C globalaverage surfacetemperature
with greenhouseeffect: 14°C globalaverage surfacetemperature
How can we determine the human impact on climate?
Excursus: Measuring water vapourand clouds
> Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas(approx. 65% of the greenhouse effect)
> The water vapour feedback is approx. 0.5°C/°C
> Clouds (water and ice droplets) have a strong influence on the radiation balance in the atmosphere
> Water vapour and cloud measurements are essential for the understanding of the climate system and for weather prediction
How can we determine the human impact on climate?
A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements
ASMUWARA, the all-sky multi-wavelength radiometerIn operation at the Institute of Applied Physics, Univ. of Bern
How can we determine the human impact on climate?
A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements
(Martin, 2006)
How can we determine the human impact on climate?
A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements
above: temperature profiles over Bern
left: multispectral images of clouds
MW
IR(Martin, 2003)
What will happen with the climate in the future?
CO2 emission scenarios …
rapid economic growth,technological changes,fossil intensive energy
sustainable economiesand societies,reduced econ. growth
rapid economic growth,technological changes,non-fossil energy
(IPCC, 2001)
What will happen with the climate in the future?
… and the expected temperature change
Emissions
(IPCC, 2001)
What will happen with the climate in the future?
… and the expected temperature change
(IPCC, 2007)
non-fossilscenario
fossilscenario
What will happen with the climate in the future?
Alpine temperature and humidity towards 2100
2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 (11 different climate models):
Temperature [ºC]
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
7
6
5
4
3
2
Precipitation [%]
+60
+40
+20
0
-20
-40
-60
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
(Ja
cob
, 2
00
5)
=> warm and humid winters, hot and dry summers
What will happen with the climate in the future?
What will happen with the climatein the future? Some examples
(IPCC, 2001)
What will happen with the climate in the future?
Protect or insure?
Present Climate
Future Climate ??
protect insure
(Schär, 2004; Heck, SwissRE)
What will happen with the climate in the future?
Melting glaciers and their impact onriver discharge
(Sh
ab
alo
va e
t a
l 20
03
)
Seasonal water discharge of river Rhineat Rheinfelden today and in 2100 (+4.8°C)
(Ste
ine
r, 2
00
5)
1850
2003
What will happen with the climate in the future?
Alpine temperature and humidity towards 2100
winter summer
What can we do against climate change?
What can we do against climate change?
Two strategies:
Adaptation (Anpassung)> adapt to climate change> typical example: construct river dams against floods> immediate effect, but local impact
Mitigation (Milderung)> mitigate climate change> typical example: use bike instead of car> global impact, but delayed effect
What can we do against climate change?
The efficiency of regulations …
catalyser in cars in 1986
low-sulphur fuel oil in the 70s
(BFS, BAFU, 2009)
What can we do against climate change?
… and the impact of regulationson the economy
Economic performance is not affected byenvironmental regulations, taxes, etc.!
(OECD, OcCC 2005)
Conclusions
Conclusions
Climate change is taking place,and the reasons for climate change are known.
Combating climate change> costs -- but doing nothing will cost much more!> requires global cooperation and investments
for the far future.> is a matter of society, economy and politics.
Every measure (adaptation and mitigation) is helpful.
Appendix
References
IPCC: International Panel onClimate Change
part of UNO, founded in 1988
reports approx every 5 years
Working group 1 report 2007:• 600 authors• 40 countries• 600 peer reviewers
http://www.ipcc.ch
Appendix
Climate research in Switzerland andat the University of Bern
NCCR Climate (http://www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch)> Swiss centre of excellence for climate research> start 2001, expected end 2013, NFS funded> 130 researchers, 13 institutions (Universities, ETH, etc.)> University of Bern is leading house and coordinator
Oeschger Centre (http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch)> Climate research centre at the University of Bern> coordinates, funds and promotes climate research> interdisciplinary (sciences, humanities, economy, law, …)> Graduate School of Climate Sciences