Climate Change – The Other Theories! Bruce Peachey, P.Eng. September 18, 2003 Petroleum Society of CIM Lloydminster Section.

Climate Change – The Other Climate Change – The Other Theories!Theories!

Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.September 18, 2003September 18, 2003

Petroleum Society of CIMPetroleum Society of CIMLloydminster Section Lloydminster Section

What is Causing the Climate Change? What is the latest data?

• IPCC Science Working Group – Technical Summary

How do the theories stack up against the data?

• What theories eliminated or reduced?Of the remaining theories which is more

strongly supported?What are the implications?

Latest Data Indicates

Globally atmospheric GHGs are up.• Large unexplained CO2 sink in North America reported

Globally average temperatures are higher• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10 years

• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time highs

• More over land than over oceans. Cooling in some areas.

Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days per decade in northern hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates

Precipitation increases (5-10%) over most land areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere

• No observed increase in southern hemisphere• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme weather.

Heavy precipitation events increased in northern latitudes

• Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern Hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates

Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased in Northern Hemisphere by several percent per decade

Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by 2%• Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal

temperature range

Latest Data Indicates Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere decreasing

• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent. Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat

except in coastal areas. El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent

and intense over the last 30 years. Coral bleaching – Increased esp. during El

Nino. No acceleration in sea level rise detected

over last century

Seven Climate Change Views Warming is Not Happening Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation Energy Use Warming Atmosphere Human Impact Minor or Beneficial Can’t Afford the Solutions Water Emissions - Main Climate Change

Driver

Warming Not Happening?

High Uncertainty

Likely

Waste of Fossil Fuels

Should be a real concern. Even coal wouldn’t last for ever. A good reason on its own to reduce fossil

fuel use. Much of the use is for status or convenience

not need. Root problem is societal. “Live for today

attitude”

GHG’s Trapping Solar Radiation Should be happening and increasing Experts can’t agree on how much it

contributes Models force fit to history with scaling factors

and adjustments and used to forecast, but still don’t model clouds, land-use or other human factors.

GHG must be global yet much of the data only shows changes in Northern Hemisphere

Energy Use Warming Atmosphere

Total anthropogenic energy generation is about 550 ExaJoules/yr enough to warm atmosphere 1 degree C per year.

Most energy is turned into heat and reradiated, so would not build up enough.

Some turned into water vapour• Combustion or from Cooling Towers.

Summary – not a major impact.

Human Impact Minor or Beneficial Growing evidence that it is not minor and

that it has been rapidly growing in the last 30-50 years.

Cost vs. Benefits tough to balance• More growing days and warmer north

• More severe storms, loss of natural habitat

• Increases in severity where losses are greatest in people, property or sensitive environments

Can’t Afford the Solutions?

Depends on the cost of the problems and on what needs to be solved.

Many energy reductions are very cost effective and have other benefits

Reducing energy use is the most cost effective solution and most likely to reduce human impacts on climate no matter what the major cause is.

It’s The WATER!

The New Paradigm View

Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr)

Land Ocean

11171

40 (–10% due to human water use)

40

425 385

+4

What is the impact of this!

Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton

Annual Global Water Withdrawals

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Cu

bic

Kil

om

eter

s (G

t/yr

)

Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick

Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get cubic kilometers

Water Emission Calculations

Energy to Atmosphere• 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr (exajoules/yr)• 15-20 times human energy use!

Water to Atmosphere (mainly in Northern Hemisphere)

• 4,000 Gt/yr• -10% of Surface flow to oceans• +5% of Land Evaporation

What Goes Up, Must Come Down Water Added to Atmosphere Must Come Out

• 5% of increase in net land evaporation matches 5-10% increase in precipitation over land

• Water added in Northern Hemisphere, comes out in Northern Hemisphere after forming clouds

When water condenses, heat is liberated• Condensation in coldest areas so they warm the most.

• Energy melts ice, warms air & water

The Heat Pipe Effect

Water added in Hot Dry Areas

Water givesUp Heat and Falls

In Cold Areas

Day/Night Cycles

Water Transport

How Does This Theory Fit the Facts? Source is anthropogenic and increasing Should cause increased warming in cold

areas but relatively little effect in temperatures elsewhere.

Should cause increased rainfall and increase severity of storms Unusual patterns

Increases night time low temperatures due to day/night cycling as dew point is raised

Water – Impacts

Two thirds of global water use is for irrigation. Almost all in Northern Hemisphere

Most of the rest for industry in same region Four countries account for half the world’s

670 million acres of irrigated cropland• Over 60% of the water added doesn’t reach the

plants Also tend to be located near or could affect

areas experiencing the largest effects of climate change

Top Water Emitters from Irrigation

0

5

10

15

20

25

Distribution of Irrigated

Land(%)

Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Sandra Postel

Feeding El Nino & Arctic Warming?

El Nino

Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers

& Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?

Water – Implications

Improvements in irrigation practices may be more important than GHG reductions

• Reduce wasteful irrigation methods; • Select crops that suit the local climate• These changes could be made with a fraction of

the expenditures for GHG mitigation. Focus on the Agriculture Industry Many responses to GHG theory proposed

make water situation worse• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,

nuclear power

The Balance of Evidence - Says... Human Enhanced Water Evaporation

SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation

GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an indicator of energy waste so should still be reduced by reducing energy use

Finding the right solutions means addressing the right problem.

Does It Matter Which Theory is Right? Likely no theory is entirely right. Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions”

which:• Minimize Water added to atmosphere• Reduce Energy Waste Fossil Fuel

Consumption Reduce GHG emissions

• Create Wealth (improve standard of living)

New Paradigms? Not Really Sustainable Development is based on:Reduce

• Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial wants so they are there when future generations need them.

Reuse – Resources more than once Recycle – If you can’t do the first two. Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting

“Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources • Is it really green?

Summary of Our Choices

We have the ability to choose our responses

We should make the choices proactively We should ensure the right actions are

taken rather than the politically correct or expedient ones.

“There is more to life than increasing it’s speed.” - Mahatma Ghandi

Contact Information

New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.

10444 - 20 Avenue

Edmonton, Alberta

Canada T6J 5A2

tel: 780.448-9195

fax: 780.462.7297

email: [email protected]

web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca

Extra SlidesExtra Slides

Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.Bruce Peachey, P.Eng.President, New Paradigm Engineering President, New Paradigm Engineering

Ltd.Ltd.

Global Temperature Increases

Changes in measurement, motivation & technology, might have caused two step changes upwards in temperatures

1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel (how hot and how cold)

Three temperature scales in use Reaumer close to Centigrade

• (0oR= 0oC; 80oR= 100oC so Reaumer gives lower readings)• Was there confusion between units in early records?

Global Temperature Increases

Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts allows better weather forecasts.

Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows.

• Before this did people care if the thermometer was wet?• Wet thermometers give lower average readings

Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the coast. Standardization of procedures, temperature scales,

and higher frequency of readings.

Global Temperature Increases Step 2 - 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature

measurement. Truncated readings have a systemic impact. • “Cooling” in N.A. when Canada went metric? Increase in

negative offset.Deg C AverageActual 15.57 30.25 40.75 -10.18 35.85 28.06Digital 15.5 30.2 40.7 -10.1 35.8 28.025

Thermometer 15 30 40 -10 35 27.5Offset (C) -0.56

Deg FActual 60.026 86.45 105.35 13.676 96.53 90.508Digital 60 86.4 105.3 13.6 96.5 90.45

Thermometer 60 86 105 13 96 90Offset (C) -0.2822

Historical Climate Data - Wyoming

Total of Three Wyoming SitesSource U.S. Historical Climatology Network(N.B. Wyoming less affected by human activity)

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

De

g F

Historical Climate Data - Tennessee

Tennessee 15/15 Time Homogeneous StationsDecade Average - Time Homogeneous Readings

Source - U.S. Historical Climatology Netw ork(N.B. Peaks correspond to peak industrial activity in the region)

5757.257.457.657.8

5858.258.458.658.8

5959.259.459.659.8

60

Deg F

Average (1887-1994)

Decade Averages

Petroleum Exports = 79 Mt/yr

Natural Gas Exports = 62 Mt/yr

Alberta Overall Carbon Balance

Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300,000+ Mt (?)

Agri & Wood Exports = 6 Mt/yr

Petro-ChemicalsExports = 7 Mt/yr

Net to Atmosphere = 31 Mt/yr

Coal Exports = 11 Mt/yr

Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total carbon..But only 50 years based on economic reserves!

What does Ice Core Data Say?

Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate:• CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature.• Increases in CO2/CH4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the

temperature increase.• Decreases in CO2/CH4 lag behind on set of glaciation

Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct atmospheric measurement

• Ice is not inert with respect to CO2/CH4 which it can absorb or adsorb• Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was

trapped in a bubble.• CO2/CH4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice

Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric concentrations.

The Case of the “Missing Carbon”The Facts

Global Carbon Emissions:• Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5.4 Gt/yr• Deforestation & land-use = 0.5-2.5 Gt/yr

Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere: • Calculated increase = 3.4 Gt/yr

Remainder (2-4 Gt/yr) is Missing!• Unexplained sink of CO2 in the northern hemisphere

Are we already sequestering carbon?• Do we get credits for it?

The Textbook Carbon Cycle

Oceans39,100 Gt

Fossil Fuels& Shale

19,300 Gt Vegetation &Humus

1,760 Gt

Atmosphere700 Gt

100 GtCombustion

.5 to 2 Gt

Combustion5 Gt

113 Gt

Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science”

Reality is More Complicated

Oceans39,100 Gt

“Fossil” Fuels& Shale

19,300 Gt Vegetation &Humus

1,760 Gt

Atmosphere700 Gt

100 GtCombustion

.5 to 2 Gt

Combustion5 Gt

113 GtHomes/Landfills etc.

Sewers 1-1.5 Gt

0.6 Gt

(-.4 Gt?)

+/-?

+/-?

? Gt subducted sediments? Gt subsea seeps

? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates

Compare the Numbers Fossil Fuel

Combustion Energy to Atmosphere

• 500 - 750 x 109 GJ/yr• 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules)• Mainly a one shot deal as energy

radiated

Water to Atmosphere• 7.5 – 10 Gt/yr• 1 t CH4 2 t H2O• 1 t Oil 1 t H2O

Carbon to Atmosphere• 3.4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all

sources. (What portion is due to combustion?)

Water Losses (2/3 irrigation)

Energy to Atmosphere• 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr• 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules)• Keeps on giving until it reaches

the ocean! Water to Atmosphere

• 4,000 Gt/yr• -10% of Surface flow to oceans• +5% of Land Evaporation

Carbon to Atmosphere• Unknown (+/-) due to plant

growth vs. decay in new agricultural areas under irrigation

Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations1981-1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)

Altitude (km) Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%)

10-12 59.2 1.03

12-14 11.88 0.49

14-16 4.66 0.54

16-18 3.87 0.73

18-20 3.85 0.84

20-22 4.07 0.54

22-24 4.21 0.38

24-26 4.29 0.34