Climate Change Science Tuesday 22 April 2008 Earth Day panel for Sustainable Practice program Dr. E.J. Zita The Evergreen State College [email protected].

Climate Change Science

Tuesday 22 April 2008

Earth Day panel for

Sustainable Practice program

Dr. E.J. Zita

The Evergreen State College

[email protected]

http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita/meetings/08AprEarthDay/SustainablePanel

Zita and lawnmowers

Physicist and organic farmerBA, Physics & Philosophy, Carleton College

Ph.D., Physics, UW-Madison

Earth lit by fossil fuels

Global warming - the debate now is about impacts and options

Stern Review: climate impacts could cost up to 20% of GDP;

Curbing climate emissions could be achieved with an investment of 1-3% of GDP.

Summer 2006 news:

Organizers of the annual Capital Lakefair Festival in Olympia, Wash., blamed heat for lagging attendance from last year."When in Olympia, Wash., do you see temperatures of 101 degrees?" asked Teri Chmielewski, vice president of the fair. "People just don't want to come out of their houses."

Record Cascade avalanche season 2007

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/10avalanches.html

Global temperatures in 1970

Global temperatures: 1970-2007

Warmest years all in the last decade:

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html

New records:1) 20062) 20073) 20054) 19985) 20026) 20037) 2004

Despite the fact that we are currently in a solar minimum and a cool La Niña …

IPCC temperature projections for A1B

Next decade:

2020-2029

End of century:

2090-2099

AR4 SPM1 Fig.6Temperature increases in °C relative to the period 1980-1999

T differences

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html

Temperatures in the past 1000 yrs

• t

Temperatures in the past six ice ages

• t

underwear

Greenhouse gases absorb and re-radiate infrared radiation

Without greenhouse gases such as water vapor and CO2,

Earth would have been too cold to support life for billions of years…

… but now we’ve got too much of a good thing…

Atmospheric CO2 has recently risen far above the historical peak of 280-300 ppm

Temperature and CO2 levels rise together

Land glaciers on all continents are melting rapidly; This melt rate has accelerated in the past decade

Mountain pine beetle migrates faster than Cascade lodgepole pine

Record fire seasons in 2005, 2006, 2007

Global warming exaggerates weather patterns, drives extreme events

Warming makes hurricanes stronger

http://www.livescience.com/environment/ap_050731_hurricanes_stronger.html

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html

Power ~ velocity3

More droughts and floods, as the water cycle accelerates in a warming world

Chehalis floods, Dec. 2007

A northbound Kayak on I-5Jim Thode http://www.pbase.com/jimthode/image/89914178

Global warming disproportionately impacts those living closer to the land, and those with fewer resources for adaptation

Sea level rise: 1 m by 2100?

http://www.ci.olympia.wa.us/community/sustainability/Climate_Change/Climate_Concerns.htm

but Greenland melt is accelerating

Ice loss rate is over 40 cubic miles per year

(this has doubled in the last decade)

Sea level rise 4-8 m by 2100?

Feedback mechanisms accelerate warming

Ice-albedo feedback: melting → more solar energy absorption → heating → more melting → more solar energy absorption . . .

Poles are warming faster

Ice-albedo feedback

Northwest passage is opening

Arctic Ocean may be ice-free before 2050

Tipping point ~ 500 ppm CO2

“Fingerprints” of anthropogenic warming

• Poles warm more than lower latitudes

• Land warms more than water

• Stratosphere cools while troposphere warms

Evidence of anthropogenic interference

• Correlation: high CO2 since industrial revolution

• Cause: Low C14/C12 (*) in modern atmosphere: injection of fossil carbon

• Effect: Failure to fall into cyclic ice age after recent interglacial

*

Connecting forcings with Temp changes

Humans emit over 7 billion tons of C/year

Carbon emissions must zero out before concentrations can level out.

Goal: keep atmospheric CO2 levels below the 500 ppm tipping point

Transportation and electricity

Rate of carbon emission vs. time

Pacala & Socolow (Princeton), “Stabilization Wedges” Science 305, 968, 2004 Aug. 13

The atmosphere as a bathtub, with current annual inputs and outputs of carbon. The level is rising by about 4 billion tons per year.

The Carbon and Climate Problem

The Carbon and Climate Problem

… and then work to reduce emissions in the second half of the century (orange line)

We can prevent doubling of CO2 if we can keep emissions flat for the next 50 years

Pacala & Socolow, Princeton

Wedge Strategies currently available

Choose 10 wedges from among all 4 sectors

Energy options:

Electricity: Natural gas is twice as clean as coal

Nuclear fission? Fusion doesn’t work yet.

Hydrogen is a fossil fuel … unless electrolyzed with

WIND or solar power

Geothermal & OTEC – not much available

Transportation: Higher MPG – drive less –

Denser cities – mass transit – walk/bike/telecommute

Evergreen student research

Coming up next:

John Pumilio: MES research on reducing TESC’s carbon footprint

Rob Cole: Human rights implications, carbon monitoring, …

This Thursday 24 April at 4:00, LH 2MES thesis presentation byAndy Deffobis

Helping Tumwater Go Green

Image sourcesIce albedo feedback: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/feedback.stmFountain http://www.liveolympia.com/Portals/6/HeritageParkFountain.jpgWarmest2005 http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.htmlTincreases http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/Orca http://wdfw.wa.gov/science/articles/pcb/index.htmlStern report http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/planetearthunderthreat/stern-report.jpgUndies:

http://personal.lse.ac.uk/berge/happyhour/2006-2007_michaelmas/Preuve%20du%20rechauffement.jpgForestFires: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20060708/a7459_1887.jpgEconomistHeatIsOn: http://www.economist.com/Images/20060909/20060909issuecovUS400.jpgSmokestacks: http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bay_environment/blog/smokestacks.jpgBearSUV: http://www.weedenco.com/welling/Global%20Warming.gifBearsStranded: http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/02_1/polarbrsDM010207_468x762.jpgGlacierRetreat: Athabasca Glacier, Canadian Rockies, was near the sign in 1890 and has since melted back to

its current location due to global warming.http://www.answersingenesis.org/assets/images/articleImages/2006/09/global-warming-3.jpg

GWpredictions: http://www.ethicurean.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/global_warming_predictions_map_2.jpg

GWbrokaw http://www.usnews.com/usnews/discovery/discovery-global_files/global_promo.jpgHurricane http://www.profindsearch.com/Img/Hurricanes_Global_Warming.jpgGwvacation http://trulyequal.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/fear-global-warming.jpgNY_GW: New York City under a 3-5 meter rise in sea-level due to global warminghttp://www.inhabitat.com/2007/11/21/ipcc-global-warming-is-real-and-we-must-act-now/windfarm http://planetsave.com/files/2007/07/wind-farm.jpgriced paddies http://www.britannica.com/eb/art-2007/Terraced-rice-paddies-Bali-Indonesiacows http://www.rockinh.net/Stockman's.htmgreen building http://www.archidose.org/Blog/culver1.jpgnatural gas logs http://www.thegrillstoreandmore.com/image/products/big-pics/523347b.jpgbiofuels environment.newscientist.com

Sources of CO2 emissions

Uncertain future

US needs to live more lightly

Follow California’s example