8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
1/22
Climate and Fisheries
Kevin D. Friedland and Michael J. FogartyNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
2/22
Expected Changes in Ocean Dynamics Under Global Climate Change
-Increased water temperature-Increased melting of sea ice-Changes in salinity due to runoff and evaporation-Changes in major current systems
-Increased stratification-Changes in position and intensity of frontal zones-Changes in upwelling intensity-Changes in turbulence and mixing-Changes in distribution of marine organisms-Shifts in productivity of exploited species
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
3/22
AtmosphericForcing
OceanDynamics
BiologicalResponse
Ice CoverWater Temperature
Wind Speed& Direction
Precipitation& Runoff Wind-driven
Currents
Salinity
Buoyancy-driven Flow
Stratification& Fronts Upwelling
Downwelling
PrimaryProduction
SecondaryProduction
FishRecruitment& Production
Fishery Yield Turbulent
Mixing
Atmospheric Temperature
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
4/22
The North AtlanticOscillation affects:
Temperature PatternsWind FieldsPrecipitation
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
5/22
NAO Affects Cod Recruitmentin the North Atlantic
Brander and Mohn 2004
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
6/22
Beaugrand et al 2003
Plankton and Cod Recruitment
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
7/22
Maine Lobster Landings and theNorth Atlantic Oscillation
1945 1965 1985
Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
a n
n g s
o
u s a n
NA
OWi n t er I n d ex
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
8/22
7 6 W 7 4 W 7 2 W 7 0 W 6 8 W
3 6 N
3 8 N
4 0 N
4 2 N
4 4 N
A r e a 5
A r e a 7
A r e a 1
A r e a 3
A r e a 6
Friedland and Hare, in review
Long-term Sea Surface Temperature
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
9/22
8
9
10
11
12
14
8
10
8
10
12
14
10
12
14
14
16
12
14
16
10
12
14
14
16
12
14
16
18
20
21
22
7
8
9
10
11
1 86 0 1 88 0 1 90 0 1 92 0 1 94 0 1 96 0 1 98 0 2 00 020
21
22
1 86 0 1 88 0 1 90 0 1 92 0 1 94 0 1 96 0 1 98 0 2 00 0
7
8
9
M e a n a n n u a
l t e m p e r a
t u r e ,
C
A H
I
J
K
L
M
N
B
C
D
S umm
er -wi n
t er
t em p er a
t ur e
d i f f er en
c e , C
E
F
G
Year
Trends in Long-term SSTand Seasonal SSTDifference
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
10/22
Gulf of Maine (Area 1) detail
8
9
10
11
12
14
A H
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
11/22
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-2
-1
0
1
2
N o r m a
l i z e
d m
i n i m a
( - ) a n
d m a x
i m a
( - )
Year
Scaled minima and maxima for all areas
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
12/22
Gulf of Maine Cod Landingsand Temperature
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
0
5
10
15
20
L a n d i n g s ( ' 0 0 0 m t )
6
8
10
12
T em
p er a t ur e
( C )
Cod Temp
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
13/22
Effect of Temperature onMean Latitude of Occurrence
Murawski 1993
BluefishSpiny Dogfish
Winter Flounder Red Hake
Longfin SquidSilver Hake
Long Horn SculpinWhite Hake
PollockAmerican PlaiceHaddock
Temperature Change Coefficent
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7-0.1-0.2
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
14/22
Offshore hake southern deepwater species
Cold conditionsWarm conditions
Response: move
to cooler conditions
Courtesy Ken Frank, BIO
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
15/22
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
b
N o r t
h A t l a n t i c
O s c
i l l a
t i o n
Year
D
e n
O e v e r r e c r u i t m
e n
t ( l o g
) a
Recruitment and NAO Time Series
Friedland et al 2007
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
16/22
20
25
30
35
40
60s
20
25
30
35
40 70s
L a
t i t u d e
( N )
1.0 m 2 sec -1
80s
-70 -65 -60 -55 -5020
25
30
35
40 90s
-65 -60 -55 -50
00s
50s
Longitude (W)
Ekman Transport
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
17/22
Early SpringPhytoplankton BloomFavors HaddockRecruitment On TheScotian Shelf
Platt et al. 2003
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
18/22
Georges Bank Haddock Recruitment andSpring Bloom Start Date
40 50 60 70 80
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
L o g
R e c r u
i t s S S B - 1
T-test MethodCumVar Method
Day of year
Friedland et al. in prep
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
19/22
Need Mechanistic Understanding of ClimateEffects on Living Marine Resources
GLOBEC and other Climate
Programs Addressing thisNeed
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
20/22
Climate can Affect Basic Productivity Patterns
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
21/22
Effects of an Environmental Shift
If Intrinsic rate of increase is affected
FavorableEnvironment
UnfavorableEnvironment
8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
22/22
Conclusions
-Decadal-scale variation in ocean climate evident.-North Atlantic Oscillation dominant feature in thisregion.-Changes in NAO have been linked to changes incod recruitment.-Changes in fish distribution have been linked totemperature & NAO.-Migratory species may be impacted by factorsoccurring in distant locations.-Complex interactions between exploitation andharvesting can be expected.