Page 1
Climate Change Climate Change
Professor Matthew EnglandProfessor Matthew England
Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory
School of Mathematics, Faculty of ScienceSchool of Mathematics, Faculty of Science
The University of New South WalesThe University of New South Wales
Page 2
Causes of climate change
Page 3
CO2 Concentration is Rising
190
290
1959
2004
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Page 5
Why is Venus hotter than Mercury?
Mercury temperature = ~85C
Venus temperature = 500 C
Answer -
The Greenhouse Effect!
Page 7
NH air temperatures since 1000 A.D.
Page 9
Global 20th Century Temperature Trends
Page 11
Is the Antarctic changing?… observations
Larsson-B Ice Shelf Collapse 31 January to 7 March 2002
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html
Page 12
Twentieth Century Land-Ice Changes
Davis et al., Vaughan; Science, 2005
Page 13
Melting of the Greenland Ice-sheet
Page 14
Australian temperature trend, 1950 – present day
Page 15
Australian rainfall trend, 1950 – present day
Page 16
Total annual inflow into Perth Dams
IPCC-WG2 [2007]
Page 18
Southern Annular Mode
Page 19
Southern Annular Mode
… trend due to ozone delpletion & greenhouse gas increases
Page 20
How much will our climate change in the future?
… models
Page 22
Climate Modelling
Governing equations
Forcing conditions
Initial conditions Model
output
Page 23
Models of the ocean and atmosphere
• Solve governing equations over a discrete grid
• Use (sparse) observations in forcing functions
• Integrate solutions forward in time
• Assess simulation vs. observed fields
Page 28
1000 20001500500Year
The Past and the Future
Instrumental Data Proxy Reconstructions Model Simulations
2100
5.8
IPCC highand lowprojection
1.4
Spörerminimum
Maunderminimum
Daltonminimum
0
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.4
∆T
-0.8
Page 29
Rahmstorf et al.
We are currently tracking at the very high end of emission scenarios and temperature projections
Page 30
Annual mean change in temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines) (Unit: °C) for the SRES
scenario A2, showing the period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990.
Annual-mean temperature change predicted for 2070-2100 in IPCC Third Assessment Report models
Page 31
Climate Change simulation to year 2054
Page 34
Figure 1. Model Simulation of Trend in Hurricanes (from Knutson et al, 2004)
CONTROL
2050
Page 35
• The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century
• These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …)
• A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, storm tracks, …
• These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies
CONCLUSIONS
Page 36
• The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century
• These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …)
• A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks
• These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies
CONCLUSIONS
Page 37
• The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century
• These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …)
• A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks
• These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies
CONCLUSIONS
Page 38
• The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century
• These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …)
• A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks
• These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies
CONCLUSIONS
Page 39
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 40
Physical oceanography and climate science
The study of the physics, properties, and dynamics of the oceans and coupled climate system
Page 41
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 42
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
http://www.ipcc.ch
Page 44
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Page 45
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 46
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 47
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 48
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 49
Some issues re. climate science
• Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability
• Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest”
• Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review
• Climate scientists should not prescribe policy
• Inexpert debate - unlike any other science
• Opportunities for innovation and economic growth
• We have succeeded before: CFC’s, …
• Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science
Page 50
Climate Change Climate Change
Professor Matthew EnglandProfessor Matthew England
Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory
School of Mathematics, Faculty of ScienceSchool of Mathematics, Faculty of Science
The University of New South WalesThe University of New South Wales
Page 51
Milankovitch Forcing: Variation in Incident Solar Radiation Due to Natural Variations in Earth’s Orbit
• Eccentricity:100,000 Year Cycle
• Obliquity:41,000 Year Cycle
• Precession:26,000 Year Cycle
Page 52
Simulation: Global Warming Scenario
(Rahmstorf & Ganopolski, Clim. Change 1999)
Page 53
Antarctic Circumpolar Current
Page 54
Southern Ocean water-massesSouthern Ocean water-masses
Page 55
The Greenhouse fingerprint