Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors KEVIN S. MCKELVEY 1 , JEFFREY P. COPELAND 1 , MICHAEL K. SCHWARTZ 1 , JEREMY S. LITTELL 2 , KEITH B. AUBRY 3 , JOHN R. SQUIRES 1 , SEAN A. PARKS 1 , MARKETA M. ELSNER 2 , GUILLAUME S. MAUGER 2 1 USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2 Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3 USFS ,PNW, Eco. Apps, available in preprint
Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors K EVIN S. M C K ELVEY 1, J EFFREY P. C OPELAND 1, M ICHAEL.
Jan 15, 2016
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Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors
KEVIN S. MCKELVEY1, JEFFREY P. COPELAND1, MICHAEL K. SCHWARTZ1, JEREMY S. LITTELL2, KEITH B. AUBRY3, JOHN R. SQUIRES1, SEAN A. PARKS1, MARKETA M. ELSNER2, GUILLAUME S. MAUGER2
1USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3USFS ,PNW, Olympia WA. Eco. Apps, available in preprint
Historical Wolverine Locations (1827 to 1960)
Aubry et al. 2007
Late May in northwestern Alaska
Wolverine Reproductive DensWeaning late April to early Mayrequires snow Magoun and Copeland (1998)
5 females, 15 dens
All wolverine dens with high quality spatial coordinatesU.S.CanadaScandinavia
High resolution snow coverageMODIS (daily, 0.5km, worldwide)7 yrs data
Chose May 15 as date for weaningPersistent snow cover through May 15
Copeland, J.P., et al. 2010. The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine: Do climatic constraints limit their geographic distribution? Canadian Journal of Zoology 88:233-246.
ScandinaviaFrom: Copeland et al. 2010
Stats for dens
North America 562 dens 65 North America
327 Norway160 Sweden 10 Finland
550 (97.9%) were in snowpixels
ALL were snow dens
Majority in pixels covered5+ years
From: Copeland et al. 2010
Notable misses: Quebec (extirpated) Southern Rockies (extirpated)Southern Scandinavia (recolonizing)
Range matches snow
Range map: Jokkmokk SE,2005
From: Copeland et al. 2010
89% of locations, all ages, both sexes, all seasonsPattern stronger in summer in all study areas
From: Copeland et al. 2010
Dispersal analysis based on resistance modeling
Greater Yellowstone area
From: Copeland et al. 2010
0.205
0.21
0.215
0.22
0.225
0.23
0.235
0.24
0 5 10 15 20 25
Resistance Value
Rx
y (
Ma
nte
l)
Schwartz et al. 2009. Wolverine gene flow across a narrow climatic niche. Ecology 90: 3222-3232.
Straight path
Greater Yellowstone area
From: Copeland et al. 2010
Genetic models indicate high preference for movementwithin snow-defined areas
Montana
Idaho
GreaterYellowstoneArea, WY
From: Schwartz et al. 2009
Conclusions:
Wolverine are an organism adapted to the “Hudsonian” zoneHistorical range Den requirementsWorldwide current rangeHabitat use patternsDispersal patterns
Areas with persistent snow cover through May 15 provides effectiveproxy for habitat requirements
Past, Present---Future?
10 IPCC AR4 models screened for regional skillAverage, cool (pcm1), hot (miroc 3.2)2030-2059, 2070-2099
Historical reconstructionA1B emission scenario
Delta downscaling to 1/16 deg
VIC to generate spring snowpack
Best fit crosswalk to May 15 MODIS data
http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf
Resample to 0.5km; 93.7% correct classification
Historical downscaled VIC May 15 MODIS (Copeland et al. 2010)
From : McKelvey et al. 2011
Historical 2030-2059 Average
2070-2099 Average
67% retained
37% retainedFrom : McKelvey et al. 2011
Hot Average Cool
2070-2099
From : McKelvey et al. 2011
Historical 2030-2059 2070-2099
From : McKelvey et al. 2011
Snow polygons > 1000 km2
2070-2099 Average
From : McKelvey et al. 2011
Sierra Nevada (Tahoe area)
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