CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING FOR ALASKA’S FUTURE BIOME AND SPECIES SHIFTS.

CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING FOR ALASKA’S FUTUREBIOME AND SPECIES SHIFTS

How will ecosystems and species shift with changing climate in Alaska?

Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the FutureWith US Fish and Wildlife Service and other partners

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What is climate change?

Because ocean currents and air currents control climate, warming in one part of the globe may cause cooling elsewhere

Heat increases evaporation and transpiration, so clouds and rainfall also change

Usually refers to the complex effects of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Incoming radiation from the sun gets trapped as heat

Why are there no exact answers?

Other factors besides greenhouse gases affect climate, e.g volcanoes, solar variation, and ocean currents

Weather varies from day to day Climate varies over cycles of years,

centuries, and millennia Water vapor also traps heat, and

climate in turn effects how much water vapor is in the atmosphere

We don’t know exactly how much carbon will be released, because this depends on global development and international cooperation

http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html

How do we know it’s happening?

Measurements Average yearly temperatures Precipitation Atmospheric gases

Models Past and present trends Linking oceans, atmosphere,

and energy from the sun

What can we do about climate change?

Mitigation = stopping it from happening Energy conservation

Insulation, fuel efficiency, waste reduction Renewable energy

Wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro Carbon storage

Trees, oceans, and soils can all store carbon and keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere

Adaptation = dealing with the effects that are already occurring Reactive: as each crisis happens Proactive: planning ahead

Wind turbines at Selawik AKhttp://www.avec.org/galleries/Selawik/Selawik_WindTurbines.jpg

Forecast Planning One Future

Scenario Planning Multiple Futures

Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future

Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting

What we know today

+10%-10% Uncertainties

Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group

What we know today

Scenarios: “what if” stories

Everyday choices are based on scenarios Applying for a job Deciding what to wear Buying a lottery ticket

Examining scenarios What are possible outcomes? What is the likelihood of each outcome? How much do we want to avoid the bad

outcomes? How desirable are the good outcomes? How do we balance time and costs against risks?

http://mareeconway.com/blog

Scenarios and adaptation

Plan for several potential futures, not just one

Consider human choices and political changes

Account for uncertainty When the future is

uncertain, resiliency is important

Communicate and collaborate

http://mareeconway.com/blog

http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/faculty/peterson/susfut/resilience/rLandscape.html

SNAP scenarios

What is most important to Alaskans and other Arctic partners? What changes are most likely? What changes will have the greatest impact? What are we best able to predict? How can we adapt to those changes?

Scenarios are linked to SNAP models Climate models Models of how people use land and

resources Other models linked to climate and human

behavior www.snap.uaf.edu

SNAP climate models

Climate projections are based on global models Three possible scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions Different models of how the ocean and atmosphere may respond

SNAP selected the models that were most accurate in the far north

We scaled down the model to account for local features such as mountains and coastlines

Global Circulation Model (ECHAM5) Figure 1A from Frankenberg et al., Science, Sept. 11, 2009

What data does SNAP have?

Temperature Precipitation (rain and snow) Every month of every year from

1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)

5 models, 3 emission scenarios Available as maps, graphs,

charts, raw data On line, downloadable, in

Google Earth, or in printable formats

Projected January temperatures, 1980 and 2099

Processed data

Raw data on temperature and precipitation can be linked to other models to create more useful products

Examples include thaw dates, freeze-up dates, season length, soil temperature, and water availability

Days between spring thaw and autumn

freeze-up

2090-20992060-20692000-2009

Complex linked models

Shifting plants and animals (biomes and ecosystems)

Soil temperature and permafrost Water availability Farms and gardens Forest fire

Soil temperature at one meter depth: 1980’s, 2040’s, and 2080’s (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF)

Examples of SNAP projects

How will climate change affect Alaska’s National Parks?

Will farmers near Fairbanks be able to plant new crops?

Will plant and animals species shift?

Will hydroelectric dams have enough water?

Can we expect more forest fires? Can tour companies plan for

more summer visitors?www.nenananewslink.com

alaskarenewableenergy.org

Biomes Caribou Alaska marmot Trumpeter swans Reed canary grass

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Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the FutureWith US Fish and Wildlife Service and other partners

Project Partners

Goals

Identify lands and waters in Alaska that likely serve as landscape-level migration corridors currently and into the future given climate change

Identify conservation strategies with our partners that will help maintain landscape-level connectivity

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+

1 (Precipitation)

1 (Temperature)

=

Precipitation Temperature

Mean decadal

Starting:2000-09

Future:2030-392060-692090-99

Classification and regression trees

Climate change forecasted from composite model using RandomForestTM at 5km grid

MISSING! Sea level rise & Permafrost change

Used for Training Data

Alaska BiomesDerived from Unified Ecoregions“Nowacki et al 2001”

Arctic

Boreal

Boreal Transition

North Pacific Maritime

Aleutians

Western Tundra

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Current biomes in Alaska and western Canada

http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/geogratis/en/collection/detail.do?id=4361

Predicted biome/climate 2000-2009

Arctic

AK Boreal

Boreal Transition

N. Pacific Maritime

Aleutian Islands

Western Tundra

Predicted biome/climate 2030-2039

Predicted biome/climate 2060-2069

Predicted biome/climate 2090-2099

Potential Change: Current - 2100(Note that actual species shifts lag behind climate shifts)

Resiliency

Red = 3 changes

Orange = 2 changes

Light Green = 1 change

Dark Green = No Changes (refugia)

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Modeling Trumpeter Swan Occurrence:Future Predictions based on Ice Free DaysSNAP data and Connectivity

Trumpeter Swan Data(2005 Trumpeter Swan Survey, a census flown every 5 years in August)Provided by Debbie Groves via Bob Platte

Tundra Swan dataare not available, yet29

302090-2099

2060-2069

2030-20392000-2009

2099 with nonforest + ice-free masks

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ALASKA MARMOT

Photo: AKNHP website

Known occurrences of Alaska Marmots

A new layer: DEM roughness

2009

20992069

2039

Marmot distribution using climate and roughness

Modeling Canary Reed Grass:Future Predictions of an Invasive Species

(based on Road Proximity and SNAP climatologies and Connectivity)

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2009 + roads + known occurrences

2039

2069 2099

GREEN = none

YELLOW = low

RED = high

Reed Canary Grass potential distribution

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How can we forecast climate and caribou distribution?

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Future Potential Caribou Range Distribution(all herds combined)

2009 2030-2039

2060-2069 2090-2099

legend:

purple= winter green= summer

Conservation Strategies?

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Lessons from species modeling…

Creation of climatic niche is possible to suggest trends but must be done thoughtfully and acknowledge limitations

Even simple models of distribution shifts require more data than we have readily available

Classic connectivity models are scale- and species-dependent

Invasive plant spread likely to accelerate

Recommendations:

Better modeling• More species• More data inputs• Scenario analysis

Delineation and monitoring• Refugia • Regions of extreme change

Anticipatory adaptation • Assisted migration?• New protected areas?• New protected species?