Climate Change in the News IV 2016 LLI.pdf · Climate Change in the News April 2016 2. Climate Change in the News 3. Climate Change in the News 6. Climate Change in the News 7. Climate

Climate Change in the News

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Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef

February 2016Climate Change in the News

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Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef

Climate Change in the NewsApril 2016

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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?

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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska


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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska63 yrs later


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http://geology.com/usgs/glacier-retreat/Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

63 yrs later


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How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?

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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?

1978

2008

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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?

1978

2008

30 yr

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15


17

Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?

19

Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?

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421

538

670

936

2016-2035What Do Current IPCC Reports (models)Predict?

2081-2100C

O2

Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pm)

Compared to a 1986-2005

baseline

WG1AR5_TS_FINAL, p. 89

25

What Is Causing Earth’s Climate to Change?

2100

500

421

538

670600

421 538 670 936in 2100 (84 years)

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_full_record.png

Can we use this to predict (extrapolate)?

27

421

538

670

936

2016-2035 2081-2100C

O2

Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pm)

Compared to a 1986-2005

baseline

What Do Current IPCC Reports (models)Predict?

28

What is the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and World Gross Domestic Product

PPP=purchasing power parity

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32


http://www.wri.org/print/4393832

What are the costs of providing energy?What other costs (if any) exist?

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http://appvoices.org/end-mountaintop-removal/health-impacts/#137

Can we apply economic principles to natural resources? How?

http://www.catf.us/coal/problems/

power_plants/existing/

40

Can we apply economic principles to natural resources? How?

41

Quantity, Q

Uni

t Pr

ice,

P

Private Cost

Social Cost

DemandQP

PP

QS

PS

Social costs are external to normal

market pricing

Equilibrium (reflecting

social costs)

Supply-Demand Curve

Equilibrium (unfettered market)

Ohio “Sin taxes”• Beer, 12%• Wine, 21%• Cigarettes $1.25/pk

How do we pay for these costs?

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Command and Control Policy: 30% Mandatory Cut

180 tons cut 120 tons cut

Older Newer

300 tons cut @ cost $12,000

Before: 600 tonsAfter: 420 tons



$50/ton to reduce emissions $25/ton to reduce emissions

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Older Newer






Carbon Tax: $30/ton (Market-based Mechanism #1)

Government collects $18,00045

Older Newer



Cap-and-Trade Program: 30% Cut (Market Mechanism #2)

Market Price of an allowance to emit

1 ton = $30


300 tons cut @ cost $5,000 + $5,000 - $2,400 = $7,600



$2400 for 80 tons

Permits for 80 tons

Government collection depends on awarding of allowances

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Cap-and-Trade Program: 30% Cut (Market Mechanism #2)

Older NewerHow do we pay for these costs?


300 tons cut @ cost $5,000 + $5,000 - $2,400 = $7,600

Government collection depends on awarding of allowances

Command and Control Policy: 30% Mandatory Cut



Carbon Tax: $30/ton (Market-based Mechanism #1)

Government collects $18,000

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http

://do

cum

ents

.wor

ldba

nk.o

rg/c

urat

ed/e

n/20

15/0

9/25

0538

34/s

tate

-tre

nds-

carb

on-p

rici

ng-2

015


53

ETS=Emissions Trading System

or “Cap and Trade”

$10 tax/ton CO2e = 8.9¢/gal


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World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015

ETS=Emissions Trading System

or “Cap and Trade”


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https://feww.wordpress.com/category/drought/

How do Ecosystem services effect us?

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•9 of 10 largest wheat-importing countries in MidEast•Egypt, largest of those, 38% of calories eaten from wheat•Droughts in MidEast; Syria: “worst long-term drought; most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.”•MidEast & sub-Saharan Africa have world’s highest pop growth rates=> migration to cities=>clamor for better conditions=>gov’t repression, instead.•7 of those 9 wheat importing countries had riots where people died in 2011.

http://www.stimson.org/books-reports/the-arab-

spring-and-climate-change/


The Arab Spring and Climate ChangeA Climate and Security Correlations Series

Edited by Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia February 2013Preface by Anne-Marie Slaughter

WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG

ASSO

CIATED

PRESS/BEN C

URTIS

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World Food Prices 2008-2012

2008 20122009 2010 2011

UN

Wor

ld F

ood

Pric

e In

dex


2002-2004 = 100http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

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How do Ecosystem services effect us?World Food Prices 2008-2012

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Who does not deny Climate Change?

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http://www.greenhouse2011.com/UserFiles/Presentation/presentationUrl_23.pdf


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http://www.doomsdayprophecies.info/end-of-the-world/rise-of-natural-disasters.jpg62

NatCatSERVICE

Loss events worldwide 1980 – 2014 Number of events

© 2015 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2015

Number

Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)

Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

200

400

600

800

1 000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?

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Published on PR Watch (http://www.prwatch.org)

Home > Lawyer Tormenting Scientists Revealed Working For Coal Company

Lawyer Tormenting Scientists Revealed Working For Coal Company [1]Submitted by Nick Surgey [2] on March 18, 2016 - 12:52pm

Chris Horner, a DC-based lawyer, climate change denier and Fox News regular, is also being paid as a "Regulatory Counsel"for the coal company, Alpha Natural Resources, according to bankruptcy filings reviewed by the Center for Media andDemocracy (CMD). Horner’s repeated filing of lawsuits against leading U.S. climate scientists has been described as"harassment [3]."

Alpha funding for Horner was first reported by Lee Fang [4], writing for the Intercept in August 2015 from earlier bankruptcyfilings, although his role as Counsel was unknown until now.

Horner's role as Regulatory Counsel for Alpha is described in a declaration [5] that he signed, and which was filed with thebankruptcy court on January 11, 2016. Another document shows that funding from Alpha to Horner has continued through toat least the end of January, 2016, which is the most recent reporting period.

As the Wall Street Journal has reported [6], Horner was paid a total of $18,600 by Alpha for the months of May, June and July

647LikeLike


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http://www.vox.com/2015/6/2/8701917/americans-opinion-climate-change

70

Do

We

Trus

t th

e M

odel

(s)?

NoYes

No

Yes

Are the Models Correct?

STOP STOP

STOP STOP


Which square has the highest risk for society?

71

Do

We

Trus

t th

e M

odel

(s)?

NoYes

No

Yes



71

Do

We

Trus

t th

e M

odel

(s)?

NoYes

No

Yes


Blaise Pascal(1623-1662)

Pascal’s wager


71

Do

We

Trus

t th

e M

odel

(s)?

NoYes

No

Yes



71

What can I do to help reduce Climate Change?You’re better off eating vegetables from Argentina than

red meat from a local farm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8395287.stm75


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Time (MYA)

Brai

n Vo

lum

e (c

c)

500

1000

1500

(not linear)6.0 3.0 1.02.0 0.5 0.0

“Lucy”H. habilis

H. erectus

H. neanderthalensis/sapiens

How would a Martian Scientist View Homo sapiens?

You are here

Australopithecus

80

Time (MYA)

Brai

n Vo

lum

e (c

c)

500

1000

1500

(not linear)6.0 3.0 1.02.0 0.5 0.0

“Lucy”H. habilis

H. erectus

H. neanderthalensis/sapiens

10,000 yr

How would a Martian Scientist View Homo sapiens?

You are here

Australopithecus

80

8,000BCE 4,000BCE TODAY

2B

4B

6B

8B

Wor

ld P

opul

atio

n *

200 yr

You are here

Why is atmospheric CO2 increasing?

81

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

of C

arbo

n/yr

Coal

Industrial Revolution

1775

Global CO2 Emissions 1836-2010 (as of April 2014)

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2010.ems

0

2500

5000

7500

1000018

36

1865

1894

1923

1952

1981

2010

Oil

Nat. Gas

Cement

Total

What are the direct, human-caused CO2 sources?

You are here

Why is atmospheric CO2 increasing?

82

-0.50

-0.25

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

from

Sta

ndar

d, ºC

(190

1-20

00)

Mean for 1901-2000 = 0

Trend line

You are here

What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?

83

Voyager 1

The Pale Blue Dot

1990

3,700,000,000 mi from Earth

Video next

What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?

You are here

84

The Pale Blue Dot

3,700,000,000 mi from Earthhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=923jxZY2NPI

What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?You are here

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Climate Change in the News IV 2016 LLI.pdf · Climate Change in the News April 2016 2. Climate Change in the News 3. Climate Change in the News 6. Climate Change in the News 7. Climate

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