Climate Change in the American West

• Climate changein the West 1/20/13

EcoWest missionInform and advance conservation in the AmericanWest by analyzing, visualizing, and sharing dataon environmental trends.1/20/13 EcoWest decks This is one of six presentations that illustrate key environmental metrics. Libraries for each topic contain additional slides. IssueSample metrics WaterPer capita water consumption, price of water,trends in transfers Biodiversity Number of endangered species, governmentfunding for species protection WildfiresSize and number of wildfires, suppression costs Land Area protected by land trusts, location ofproposed wilderness areas ClimatePrecipitation models, expected impacts Politics Conservation funding, public opinionDownload presentations and libraries at ecowest.org1/20/13 Table of contents1. Temperature2. Precipitation3. Water impacts4. Biodiversity impacts5. Wildfire impacts6. Greenhouse gases7. Other air pollution1/20/13 Key points Temperature: The West is already warming faster than many parts of the country and even higher temperatures are expected in the decades to come Precipitation Models predict the Southwest will get drier and the Pacific Northwest will get wetter, but the projections elsewhere are more ambiguous Water impacts Changes to the vital winter snowpack and the timing of the spring snowmelt will pose challenges to aquatic species and water managers Biodiversity impacts Plants and animals are expected to move upslope and toward the North Pole in response to the changing climate but many barriers stand in the way Wildfire impacts Warmer temperatures and a thinner snowpack will continue to make the Wests wildfire season longer and more destructive. Greenhouse gases Power plants, transportation, and industry account for the great majority of GHG emissions in the West, where only a few states have significant carbon sinks Other air pollution The nation has made significant progress in addressing many types of air pollution, but millions of Westerners remain at risk from airborne toxics1/20/13 TEMPERATURE1/20/13 125 years of warming in 30 secondsSource: NASA 1/20/13 U.S. average temperatures: 1951-2006Averagetemperature (F)Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Projected temperature change by 2080sHigh emissions (A2) scenarioMean temperaturedeparture (F) Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Days above 90FSource: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Hours per day above 100F in Phoenix Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 PRECIPITATION1/20/13 US average precipitation: 1951-2002100th MeridianAnnual precipitation(inches) Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 U.S. average precipitation change: 1951-2002Average precipitation change(inches) Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Precipitation change by 2080s:Low emissions (B1) scenarioAverage precipitation change(millimeters) Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Precipitation change by 2080s:High emissions (A2) scenario Average precipitation change (millimeters)Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Projected precipitation changes: 2080-2099 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Most of Southwest expected to get drier Source: Tetra Tech , Natural Resources Defense Council 1/20/13 WATER IMPACTS1/20/13 Climate change effects on water cycle Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Changes in snowfall: 1949-2005Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Trends in April 1 snowpack: 1950-2002 Decrease Increase Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program1/20/13 Trends in peak streamflow timingObserved trends: 1948-2002 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Trends in peak streamflow timingProjected trends: 2080-2099Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Projected changes in median runoff:2041-2060 vs. 1901-1970 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS 1/20/13 Temperature and precipitation limit plant distribution Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 U.S. average temperatures: 1951-2006Mount Whitney, 14,505 feetDeath Valley, -282 feet Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Average precipitation: 1951-2002Annualprecip.(inches)Source: Climate Wizard 1/20/13 Climate change andincreasing CO2 willshift mosaic ofecosystemsSource: U.S. Forest Service 1/20/13 Decreasing habitat for coldwater fishSource: U.S. Global Change Research Program 1/20/13 Birds are already on the moveSource: Associated Press, Audubon Society, NOAA 1/20/13 Pikas habitat threatened by climate changeSource: Photo by Mitch Tobin 1/20/13 Projected change in suitable habitat for pika1/20/13 Whitebark pine: current viability Source: Crookston et al. (2010) 1/20/13 Whitebark pine: 2090 viabilitySource: Crookston et al. (2010) 1/20/13 WILDFIRE IMPACTS 1/20/13 Wildfires are arriving earlier and lasting longer Source: Westerling et al. (2006) 1/20/13 Change in burned area projected from 1C warmingSource: National Research Council 1/20/13 Mountain pine beetle attacking lodgepole forests1/20/13 Climate anomalies connected to tree mortality Source: Biodiversity and Climate Research Center, Conservation Biology Institute 1/20/13 Climate anomalies connected to tree mortality Source: Biodiversity and Climate Research Center, Conservation Biology Institute 1/20/13 Biotic agents and climate-related tree mortalitySource: Biodiversity and Climate Research Center, Conservation Biology Institute 1/20/13 Biotic agents and climate-related tree mortality Source: Biodiversity and Climate Research Center, Conservation Biology Institute 1/20/13 GREENHOUSE GASES 1/20/13 Sectors and sources for U.S. GHG emissions 1/20/13 GHG trends by sectorUnited States Western States Electricity GenerationTransportationIndustrial Residential CommercialFugitive Emissions8000 14007000 12006000 10005000 MMTCO2EMMTCO2E 80040003000 6002000 4001000 200019901995200020052006 20090 19901995 2000 2005 2009 Source: World Resources Institute1/20/13 GHG emissions: California, the West, and the U.S.2800California Total Western States Rest of US1800MMTCO2E800 Land Sinks -200 PowerTransport Residential Commercial IndustrialFugitiveIndustrial Agriculture WastePlants Gasses-1200Source: World Resources Institute1/20/13 Western states GHG emissions: 2008 Electricity generation Transportation Fugitive emissions ResidentialIndustrial processes Commercial Agriculture Circle sizes show statesrelative emissions Industrial Waste Source: World Resources Institute1/20/13 GHG emissions in 2008, adjusted for land sinks Sink Non-Circle sizes show statessinkrelative emissions Source: World Resources Institute1/20/13 OTHER AIR POLLUTION1/20/13 Sources and health effects of air pollutionSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Air quality improving even as economy growsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 National levels of six common pollutants Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Improvements in air quality: 1980-20101980 vs. 2010 Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) (24-hr) PM2.5 (24-hr)PM2.5 (annual) PM10 (24-hr) Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) (annual) Lead (Pb) Ozone (O3) (8-hr) Carbon Monoxide (CO) -100% -90%-80%-70%-60%-50% -40%-30% -20%-10% 0%2000 vs. 2010 Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) (24-hr)PM2.5 (24-hr) PM2.5 (annual) PM10 (24-hr)Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) (annual) Lead (Pb)Ozone (O3) (8-hr)Carbon Monoxide (CO) -70% -60%-50% -40% -30% -20% -10%0%Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency1/20/13 Trends in emissions sources1980 vs. 2010Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Direct PM2.5Direct PM10 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)Lead (Pb) Carbon Monoxide (CO)-120.0% -100.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0%0.0% 2000 vs. 2010Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Direct PM2.5Direct PM10 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)Lead (Pb) Carbon Monoxide (CO)-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0% -10.0%0.0%Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 But millions still exposed to unhealthy airSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Cancer risk associated with toxic air pollutantsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Number of bad air days 2002-2010Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 PM 2.5 emissions: 2008Fuel combustion Mobile sourcesDust FireAll other sourecesCircle sizes show statesrelative emissions Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 NOx emissions: 2008Fuel Combustion Mobile sources FireAll other sources Circle sizes show states relative emissionsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 SO2 emissions: 2008Fuel combustion Mobile sourcesFire Industrial ProcessesCircle sizes show statesrelative emissions Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency1/20/13 VOC emissions:VOC Emissions 20082008Fuel combustion Mobile sourcesAgricultureFire Industrial Processes Solvents Circle sizes show states relative emissionsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Carbon Monoxide Emissions 2008CO emissions: 2008 Fuel combustionMobile sources All other sources Circle sizes show states relative emissionsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1/20/13 Download more slides and other librariesecowest.org 1/20/13 EcoWest advisorsJon Christensen, Adjunct Assistant Professor and PritzkerFellow at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainabilityand Department of History at UCLA; former director of BillLane Center for the American West at Stanford.Bruce Hamilton, Deputy Executive Director for the SierraClub, where he has worked for more than 35 years; memberof the World Commission on Protected Areas; former FieldEditor for High Country News.Robert Glennon, Regents Professor and Morris K. UdallProfessor of Law and Public Policy, Rogers College of Law atthe University of Arizona; author of Water Follies andUnquenchable.1/20/13 EcoWest advisorsJonathan Hoekstra, head of WWFs Conservation ScienceProgram, lead author of The Atlas of GlobalConservation, and former Senior Scientist at The NatureConservancy.Timothy Male, Vice President of Conservation Policy forDefenders of Wildlife, where he directs the Habitat andHighways, Conservation Planning, Federal Lands, OregonBiodiversity Partnership, and Economics programs.Thomas Swetnam, Regents Professor ofDendrochronology, Director of the Laboratory of Tree-RingResearch at the University of Arizona, and a leading expert onwildfires and Western forests.1/20/13 Contributors at California Environmental AssociatesMitch TobinEditor of EcoWest.orgCommunications Director at CEAMicah DayAssociate at CEAMatthew ElliottPrincipal at CEAMax LevineAssociate at CEACaroline OttResearch Associate at CEASarah WeldonAffiliated consultant at CEA 1/20/13