Climate Change in New York Findings of the UCS Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and The Cornell Climate Impacts Initiative Art DeGaetano Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University Director Northeast Regional Climate Center
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Climate Change in New York Findings of the UCS Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and The Cornell Climate Impacts Initiative Art DeGaetano Professor,
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Climate Change in New York
Findings of the UCSNortheast Climate Impacts
Assessmentand
The Cornell Climate Impacts InitiativeArt DeGaetano
Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University
Director Northeast Regional Climate Center
The Climate of New York is Already Changing
• Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970
• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970
• The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950
• There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970
Northeast Winter Temp
Significant Change in Winter Climate!
38.5
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
41.5
42
42.5
30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Latit
ude
(o N)
Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature (o F)
Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
4.8oF
4.8o
The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing
• Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950
• There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950
• Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970
• In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall
New York Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs)
These Changes Affect Design Criteria for Flooding
Central Park1940 - 1960 1970-2006
2-yr 3.10 3.86
50-yr 6.21 7.31
100-yr 7.22 8.39
2-yr 2.43 2.49
50-yr 4.46 5.73
100-yr 5.08 6.86
Ithaca
Lake Effect Snow
Adirondacks Snow Cover
What About Beyond 2007?
Anthropogenic Forcing
Clicker Question
• What are the major sources of anthropogenic methane
NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
•More Coastal Erosion
•Wetland Inundation and Loss
Lake Ontario Levels
Impacts on Human Health•Extreme Heat
•Air Quality
•Pollen Allergens
Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City
Photo credit: Associated Press
Source: NECIA, 2007
(see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality
Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Centuryspruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White;
ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Impacts on Agriculture
•Dairy
•Crops
•Pests and
Weeds
Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr Winter-Chill Requirement
(dark orange- most years meet requirement)
Days Below -4 F (dark orange- potential spread of
Kudzu range)
July Dairy Thermal Heat Index (THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red)