Climate Change in Central Asia. Engr. Badrul

8/7/2019 Climate Change in Central Asia. Engr. Badrul

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CE 74.9002 Climate Change and Water Resources

Literature review-Regional aspects of observed changes in climatic variables due to

climate change (Central Asia)

by:

Mohammad Badrul [email protected]

Water Engineering and ManagementAsian Institute of Technology

Bangkok, Thailand


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Introduction

Central Asia (CA) is a core region of the Asian continent from the Caspian Sea in the west, Chinain the east, Afghanistan in the south, and Russia in the north. It is also sometimes being referred toas Middle Asia, Inner Asia, Turkestan, and, colloquially, "the 'stans" (the ending in the countries'

names within the region) and is within the scope of the wider Eurasian continent. In moderncontexts, all definitions of Central Asia consensually include these five republics of the formerSoviet Union: Kazakhstan (pop. 16.0 million), Kyrgyzstan (5.5 million), Tajikistan (7.3 million),Turkmenistan (5.1 million), and Uzbekistan (27.6 million), for a total population of 61.5 million asof 2009.

Figure 1. Map of Central Asia

(Source:http://www.sofreco.com/projets/c886/index.htm)

Other areas often included areMongolia, Afghanistan, northernand western Pakistan,northeastern Iran, Kashmir, andsometimes Xinjiang in westernChina and southern Siberia inRussia. During pre-Islamic andearly Islamic times, Central Asiawas a predominantly Iranian

region that included sedentarySogdians, Chorasmians andsemi-nomadic Scythians, Alans.The ancient sedentary population

played an important role in the history of Central Asia. After expansion by Turkic peoples, CentralAsia also became the homeland for many Turkic peoples, including the Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz,and Uyghurs, and Central Asia is sometimes referred to as Turkestan.

Table 1. Territory and region data of CA

CountryArea

km

Population

(2009)

Population

densityper km

NominalGDP

millions ofUSD

(2009)

GDP

per

capita

(2009)

CapitalOfficial

languages

Kazakhstan 2,724,900 16,004,800 6 109,273 $6,823 Astana Kazakh,Russian

Kyrgyzstan 199,900 5,482,000 27 4,570 $850 BishkekKyrgyz,Russian

Tajikistan 143,100 7,349,145 51 4,982 $766 Dushanbe Tajik

Turkmenistan488,100 5,110,000 10 16,197 $3,242 Ashgabat Turkmen

Uzbekistan 447,400 27,606,000 62 32,816 $1,175 Tashkent Uzbek


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Climate

Since Central Asia is not buffered by a large body of water, temperature fluctuations are moresevere. According to the WWF Ecozones system, Central Asia is part of the Palearctic ecozone.The largest biome in Central Asia is the Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands biome.

Central Asia also contains the Montane grasslands and shrublands, Deserts and xeric shrublandsand Temperate coniferous forests biomes.

The context of climate change threats in Central Asia

The socio-economic transition of the CA countries to market economies under new politicalsystems has therefore been since recently aggravated by another transition, namely climate change.On the other hand, Central Asia significantly contributes to global warming by generating largevolumes of GHG emissions. Kazakhstan is the 30th largest emitter of carbon dioxide worldwideand Uzbekistan is the most carbon intensive economy globally. (WRI, 2005)

These emissions are partly a legacy of the past economic and, in particular, industrial policies.

Energy resources were allocated among CA countries as far back as the USSR times in such a waythat Kazakhstan was responsible for the supply of coal, Uzbekistan for natural gas, whileTurkmenistan for oil. These industries are the largest contributors to Central Asians GHGemissions. The concern over climate change is especially growing because climate change affectsthe CA region's water and energy security and can lead to political tension among the countriesunless carefully managed by all of them.

Climate change considerations call for such major policies as the reduction of GHG emissions,including lowering carbon intensity of economies with less fossil fuel (such as oil and coal) mined,burned, traded, introducing cleaner technologies, climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climatechange issues are closely interwoven in the issues of water availability and energy security severelyaffecting the livelihood in the CA region.

As a climate change response policy, all the five countries have already established anenvironmental legal and regulatory framework (specifically air protection laws) for meeting theircommitments under the UNFCCC. Central Asian countries are non-Annex countries and theircommitments are to carry out a GHG emissions inventory periodically, as well as vulnerability andmitigation studies. However, any GHG reductions by CA countries would contribute to the ease ofthe global warming issue especially when we consider that mitigation of climate change issueshould be a joint international effort. Moreover, the Kyoto Protocol has opened up newopportunities for participating of CA countries in GHG mitigation projects.

To alleviate the situation in the years to come, the CA countries, with the assistance of theinternational community, undertake activities primarily in two directions. Firstly, they amend theirnational legislation to take into account climate change in their socio-economic and environmentalpolicies and, secondly, this legislation opens up possibilities of designing and implementingnational climate change policies and practical actions in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. Theycarry out greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories and participate in the Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) efforts.

Climate change and water availability in Central Asia


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Water availability is one of the major concerns for the Central Asia region. Water managementpolicies and their harmonization are crucial because of water interdependence of countries in theregion as it is shown in Fig. 2. Climate change is anticipated to alter the hydrological cycle, and isunlikely to relieve the limitations placed by water scarcity upon the region. Water is an importantlimiting factor for ecosystems, food and fibre production, human settlements, and human health inthis arid region of the world. Climate change and human activities may further influence the levelsof the Caspian and Aral Seas, which will affect associated ecosystems, agriculture, and human

health in the surrounding areas. Win-win opportunities exist which offer the potential to reducecurrent pressures on resources and improve the human welfare in the region and also offer thepotential to reduce their vulnerability to adverse impacts from climate change.

Figure 2. Water management in

Central Asia (Source: UNEP, 2003)

Many experts believe that the CentralAsian climate will significantly warm up,resulting in major environmental,economic and social disruptions. 46

Glaciers are already shrinking, which mayeventually decrease water flows (Fig. 3).From the 1950s to the 1990s, the Pamir-Alai glaciers lost 19 per cent of their ice,with the process now gaining in intensity.For several decades, the area of glaciersin different regions of Tien Shan, Gissaro-Alai, Pamirs and Dzhungarskiy andZailiyskiy Alatau has decreased at theaverage rate of about 1 per cent per year.According to some model predictions, theavailability of water in Syr Darya maydecrease by up to 30 per cent and in AmuDarya by up to 40 per cent. Some other models do not predict such dramatic declines, but noscenario shows an increase in water flow; in all models, the demand for water grows faster than thenatural supply. Increasing occurrence of droughts and decreased grain productivity are also widelypredicted. Given high uncertainties over these projections and the potentially serious consequencesfor human security and development in the region, it is necessary to constantly update and improvethe knowledge (and its use in policy decisions) of natural processes in glaciers and mountain areas(UNDP 2005).

Figure 3. Projected degradation ofglaciers by 2050 (Source: Tajikistan

2002: State of the Environmentreport)

While climate variations and changesin the mountain ecosystems seriouslyaffect water quantity, environmentalpollution reduces its quality, oftenmaking it unsuitable for irrigation,drinking or commercial purposes.Since the 1960s, the water quality in


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Central Asia has drastically deteriorated. The main reason for this has been the discharge of heavilypolluted water through drainage systems currently making up to 15 per cent of the river flowvolume of the Aral Sea basin. Since the 1960s, mineralization of water in the lower reaches of theAmu Darya and Syr Darya has at least doubled, and water has also become unacceptable fordrinking. (Central Asia HDR 2005, UNDP).

Targets for improved efficiency in irrigation as a complementary climate change adaptation

strategy could lead to savings in water use, which would be more important than any changes likelyto result from climate change over the next few decades. Throughout the CA states, options toreduce water use include lining more irrigation canals to reduce seepage losses (up to 40% ofdiverted water is lost in arterial channels) and reducing the area of crop and pasture irrigated byinefficient flooding methods while increasing the area of more-valuable fruit and vegetable cropsirrigated by efficient drip and below-ground irrigation systems. Turkmenistan has experiencedtensions with Uzbekistan over water allocations from one of the most important water sources inthe region, the Amu Darya, flowing through the eastern part of the country (UNEP, 2003). At thesame time, this crucial water source has been regularly listed among the most polluted water bodiesin Central Asia.

The top-priority issue in a large part of the

Central Asia is the understanding of theCaspian Sea Level changes causes andpossibility of its long-term fluctuationsprediction. Fluctuations of the Caspian Sealevel are also a point of interest as an indexof a regional climate change, which isconnected with its global change (Fig.4).Present changes of the Caspian Sea level arecaused by certain variance of the waterbalance components and mainly by riverrunoff and visible vaporation. Differentapproaches have been used to forecast long-term variations of the Caspian Sea level andwater balance components. However,successful forecast that explain long-termchanges (tendencies) in the Caspian Sealevel is still absent.

Figure 4. Annual levels of the Caspian Sea measured in baku post ( the Azerbaijan western

coast).

PrecipitationMore than one hundred stations measure precipitation in Central Asia for many decades. Selectionof the representative station for the whole region seems to be an impossible task. Precipitation has ahigh degree of fluctuation. Maximum precipitation occurs in one region in Central Asia, then inanother region. Sometimes even the precipitation at two locations separated by a short distancediffers greatly from each other. Fluctuations in the air currents over Central Asia interact with thethermal situation and with another unique atmosphere feature creating a variable precipitationdistribution in the region.


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Figure 5. Caspian sea climate mean annual precipitation (DEWA UNEP/GRID-Europe)

Figure 6. Drought in Central and Southwest Asia.

Trends in precipitation and temperatures, water content in the rivers of Central Asia.

To evaluate the trends in precipitation changes in Central Asia we selected observation postsoperating continuously for the last 50 years. Statistical analysis showed that the precipitation variesfrom year to year. Correlations between precipitation at different locations are very low, whichindicates a high variability in processes determining the precipitation pattern in Central Asia[Agaltseva, 2007]. The relationship between air temperatures measured at the various observation

posts in Central Asia is quite high. For example the relationship between annual temperature valuesmeasured at Tashkent and Samarkand stations (distance is more than 300km) has a correlationcoefficient 0.82. In order to evaluate changes in the amount of precipitation linear trends werecounted for stations with records longer than 50 years. Average value of the slope corresponding tothe linear trend in the precipitation in Central Asia is 5mm per year (this is correct for the previous50 years). This amount does not include the increasing evaporation caused by increasing airtemperatures. It is possible to conclude that increasing precipitation in Central Asia does not affectthe increase of water content in rivers. The annual average air temperature in the region for the last30 years has increased from 1.5 (Ferghana Valley) to 2.2 degrees C (Tashkent and Khorezm).These numbers are high and coincide with the values found for the Central Asian region in otherresearches [Ososkova, 2000].

Figure 7. An averagetemperature values forthe winter half of the yearand their averaging byTashkent Station.


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In figure 7 the temperature increased is clearly visible and almost exponential since 1975, andsummer in Central Asia has become a bit cooler. This is the only way to explain the 2.2 degree Cannual increase, taking into account results on the figure 7.

We will consider two graphs. Figure 8 shows the chronology of the inflow to the Tohtogulreservoir for the last 60 years. Representative position situated at the largest tributary of the SyrDarya River above, which no water abstraction for irrigation occurs [Shults, 1965].

Figure 8. Historical data of the inflow inthe Tohktogul reservoir and the trend forthe last 60 years (moving averaging).

Analysis of the figure 8 shows an increaseof the water content in the Syr Darya riversince 1975 that perfectly coincides with theexplosive growth of the temperature. Andfor the Narin River it is possible to see asudden rough drop of the water volume in2005. There was a smoother decreasing in

water content of the Vakhsh River for thesame period of time. It is important toremember that Narin River mostly fills in with melted snow and melting of seasonal snow mainlyforms the water in it. Water of the Vakhsh River in a significant amount is obtained by melting ofthe perennial ice. The recent data displayed in Figures 7 and 8 gives a reason to assume that theglaciers and snowfields in Central Asia decreased from 1975 to 2005 year. And after all they havereduced so much that in the future the Syr Darya River will have only a continuous drought invegetation periods and water content in these rivers will decrease with the income reducing fromthe irrigation land. Precipitation will transform to runoff without stage of freezing and will be lostfor irrigation in Summer time. The simple research was done in another river basins [Beven, 1987].

Figure 9. Variations in Ice cover and sea level for the Caspian Sea


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Central Asia contribution to global climate change

Carbon intensity of economic activity is determined by the past and current economic developmentpolicies, especially by the amount of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, burned in energy, transport,and industry, and other sectors. Energy resources were allocated among CA countries as far back asthe USSR times in such a way that Kazakhstan was responsible for the supply of coal, Uzbekistan for natural gas, while Turkmenistan for oil. These industries are the largest contributors to CentralAsian GHG emissions.

Kyrghyzstan

Industrial recession during the past 10 years has led to reduction in GHG emissions from stationarysources (See Figure 10). Due to a lack of mineral accessible fuels and finances, the country hasconsiderably increased electricity production from hydropower, in particular in winter. This keepsGHG emissions at a low level but requires water savings for irrigation purposes during winter time.Still, energy sector accounts for the largest share of total GHG emissions (74%) even that its totalshare decreased from 80% in 1990. Since recently, transport pollution has significantly increasedand now is a major source of air pollution in the country, as well as significant contributor of GHGemissions (Environment and sustainable development in Central Asia, 2005). Despiote recebntdecline associated with overall economic recession in the coutry, current GHG emissions are on therise and are expected to increase by 25% up to 25 MtCO2e/yr already by 2010.

Figure 10. Kyrgyzstan: GHG emissions in Gg of CO2 equivalentSource: First National Communication of theKyrgyz Republic on Climate Change under theUNFCCC, Bishkek, 2003

Kazakhstan

With annual GHG emissions of more than 200MtCO2e/yr, Kazakhstan is by far the largestGHG emitter in Central Asia. Its energy sectorgenerates about 80% of total emissions, out of

which about 90 % refer to emissions due tofuel combustion and about 10 % - to fugitiveemissions related to extraction, transportation and processing of fuel (see Figure 7). The GHGinventory in Kazakhstan shows that the 2005 GHG emissions with a direct greenhouse effectamounted to 240.7 mln.t of CO2

equivalent, including 187.7 million t from the energy sector, 16.1

million t from the industrial sector, 20.2 million t from agriculture and 16.6 million t from waste.For the 1990-1995 period, mid-annual increase rates of GHG emissions in the atmosphere were 6.7%. The Co-sequestration by the forestry sector and land use amounted to 5.9 million t in 2005 asshown in table 3. Thus, GHG net emissions were 234.8 million t in the CO 2 equivalent. Total CO2

emissions were 186.3 million t without carbon sequestration by forests and 180.4 million t with it in2005.

Table 2. GHG emissions in Kazakhstan, mln t of CO2 equivalent

GHG categories 1990 1992 1994 2000 2005

CO2 238.3 261.2 243.7 137.3 186.3

CH4 64.0 57.8 46.3 33.9 42.7

N2O 27.0 25.1 17.6 9.0 11.7

Total emissions 329.3 344.1 307.6 180.2 240.7Net emissions(sources sinks)

321.2 336.9 302.7 173.1 234.8


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Since 1990 is the base year for the majority of countries for the Kyoto Protocol purposesKazakhstan's current total GHG emissions are now well below its 1990 level (i.e. emission in 2005accounted to 73% of 2005 emissions). However given high rates of economic growth andaccelerated development in fuel and energy as well as mining sectors, it is projected that averageannual GHG emission will grow and could reach the 1990 level (or around 300.9-344.8 mln. t CO 2

equivalent) already by the end of first Kyoto period (2008-2012) and increase further up to 340-390mln. t by 2015 (Fig.11).

Figure 11. Forecasts of CO2 emissions

of Kazakhstan's energy sector,

in mln. t.

Uzbekistan

According to the first NationalCommunication of the Republic ofUzbekistan under the UN FCCC (2001),total GHG emissions reached 160.5million tons of CO2-equivalent andmade up 0.7% of global GHG emissions

in 1999. Major sources of GHGemissions are enterprises of the fuel and energy sector, construction industry, metallurgical andchemical industry, automobile and railway transport, agriculture, mining and transportation ofminerals as well as waste storage and processing. A share of industrial processes related toextraction, transportation and combustion of fossil fuels amounts to over 73% (117.8 million tonsof the CO2-equivalent, 1999). A note should be made that for the ten years' period of 1990-1999GHG emissions continue to grow by 11% (110 million tons CO2equivalent, 1990). It is expectedthat the rate of GHG emissions growth will increase by 16% by 2010 in comparison to he 1990level. The major GHG is carbon dioxide, which makes 67% of all GHG emissions. Its main sourceis the energy sector of country, notable energy production and use.

Turkmenistan

In 1994 Turkenistans GHG emissions were 52 Mt CO2 eq/yr with energy sector contributing about93.5% of the total amount. It is expected that the total GHG emissions will increase by 62% by2010, mainly as a result of the planned increased in oil and gas production activities. Nevertheless,Turkmenistan is interested in developing its abundant renewable energy potential (wind and solar)and would like to explore the use of carbon financing for implementation of projects in this area.Since 1995, Turkmenistan is a non-Annex I party to UNFCCC and since 1999 is a party to theKyoto Protocol.

Tadjikistan

GHG emissions are insignificant and do not influence the climatic system. The main sources ofGHGs in Tajikistan are cement and aluminum production, fossil fuel combustion in transport,

industrial and communal sectors, agriculture and land use change, including the reduction of timberbiomass in forests. Household and industrial wastes contribute a small part of greenhouse gasemissions. (National State of the Environment Report. Tadjikistan, 2002). According to experts'assessments, contribution of Tajikistan to the global warming during 1970-2000 totaled 300 mt ofCO2, including emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. The results of GHGinventory show that largest emissions in Tajikistan were registered in 1991 and amounted to 31 mtof CO2-equivalent without consideration of their removal by natural sinks. The least emissionswere observed in 1998 and amounted to 6.3 million tones (Fig.12).


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Figure 12. Tajikistan: Total

GHG emissions, in mln t CO2

equiv.

Source: Tajikistan 2002: State ofthe Environment Report

CO2emissionsThe biggest reduction is observedin CO2

emissions and a small

reduction in emissions of CH4,PFCs and N2O. CO2

emissions

per capita in the period underreview have reduced from 3.8 to 0.5 tonnes; they are the lowest in Central Asia. Tajikistan takes the100th place in the world as regards the volume of GHG emissions. High capacity of hydropowerplants explain a low level of CO2

emissions nowadays and in the future. In the period of 1990-1998,

the biggest CO2 emissions were observed in 1991 (22.6 million tonnes), mainly because of fossilfuels combustion. The size of CO2

emissions in the period under review decreased by more than 10

times, mainly because of the decline in energy-related activities. CO2 emissions are mainly

produced by: fossil fuel combustion in industry, transport and residential sector (82-92 %);production of cement, lime, aluminum, ferrous metals and ammonia (8-18 %). Because of illegaltree cuttings, the CO2 sequestration by forests and other forest biomass decreased by 35% tobecome 588 thousand tones in 1990 and only 447 thousand tones in 1994.

El Nio/La Nia-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occursacross the tropical Pacific Ocean with on average five year intervals. It is characterized byvariations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean - warming orcooling known as El Nio and La Nia respectively - and air surface pressure in the tropicalwestern Pacific - the Southern Oscillation. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase,El Nio, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, L Nia,accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific. Mechanisms that cause the oscillationremain under study.

ENSO causes extreme weather such as floods, droughts and other weather disturbances in manyregions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularlythose bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. In popular usage, the El Nio-SouthernOscillation is often called just "El Nio". El Nio is Spanish for "the boy" and refers to the Christchild, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed aroundChristmas. The expression of ENSO is potentially subject to dramatic changes as a result of globalwarming, and is a target for research in this regard. El Nio events occur every 3-6 years, last 9-12months, sometimes even up to 18 months, and have a big impact on world weather. The majorimpacts of El Nio are temperature anomalies, changes in precipitation variability, floods and

droughts throughout the world.

El Nio phenomena dramatically affects the weather throughout the world. Among other weatheranomalies, El Nio events are responsible for:

A shift of thunderstorm activity eastward from Indonesia to the south Pacific, which leadsto abnormally dry conditions and severe droughts during both warm and cold seasons inAustralia, the Philippines, Indonesia, southeastern Africa and Brazil.

During the summer season the Indian monsoon is less intensive than normal and therefore itis much less rainy than usual in India.


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Climate change response policies in Central Asia

Important directions of national adaptation policy (NAP) measures on adaptation to climate changein the CA region include: In-depth research on climate change, its impacts on natural resources, national economy,

public health and development of specific adaptation measures; Improvement of the systematic observation networks and environmental monitoring to

revise and renew adaptation measures;

Improvement of the system of data collection, interpretation and dissemination; Enhancement of weather forecasting, climate modeling and early warning systems for

minimization of natural disasters risk and preparedness to extreme phenomena; Capacity building to strengthen institutional, technical and human resources to promote

adaptation and research in fields of climate and hydrological investigations, geographicalinformation systems, environmental impact assessment, protection and re-cultivation oflands, rational use of water resources, conservation of ecosystems, sustainable agriculture,infrastructure

Development and health protection; Implementation of specific projects on adaptation in priority areas related to rational use of

natural resources, development of national economy and human health protection.

Conclusions

Data shows that CO2

emissions were reduced substantially in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan andKyrgyzstan after 1992. It is argued that main decrease in CO2 emissions in these countries is due toa serious economic contraction after the collapse of Soviet Union. Other factors contributing to thisresult are improvements in energy intensities and decline in energy related activities in general.Even though other two Central Asian countries, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, also experiencedsimilar economic contraction for the same period, their CO2

emissions have increased. This could

be explained by their energy use patterns and energy market structures. Energy intensities haveincreased significantly for these countries. It is suggested that liberalization of energy sectorsimproves energy intensities. It can be argued that, with the liberalization, Turkmenistan andUzbekistan can find possibilities to improve energy intensity effects and in return to reduce CO 2emission levels. The Central Asian countries have been experiencing a recovery since thebeginning of 2000. Therefore, it is possible that CO2

emissions will begin to increase in the future

unless energy intensities and carbon content of energy can be decreased via policy changes and/orbehavioral adaptation.Research over a decade of 1992-2001 demonstrated that:

Population effect on GHG emissions is mainly stable in Central Asian countries. The observed reduction of overall CO2 emissions in Central Asia is largely due to the crisis

that these countries experiences after gaining their independence from the Soviet Union. Fuel shift among fossil fuels took place mainly in Uzbekistan. Fuel switch from fossil fuels to

non-fossil fuels took place in all countries except Uzbekistan. Energy intensities are key elements of energy-saving and carbon-reduction plans.

While Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan (only recently) improved their energyintensities, Uzbekistan has problems in reducing their energy efficiencies. It is argued thatliberalization of energy sectors improves energy intensities. Therefore, it can be argued that, withliberalization, especially Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan can find possibilities to improve energyintensity effects and in return reduce CO2 emission levels.


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Climate Change in Central Asia. Engr. Badrul

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