Climate Change Impacts on Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study Public Health: a Taiwan Study Huey-Jen Jenny (Jenny) Su Distinguished Professor Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health, Vice President National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, TAIWAN 1
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Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study Huey-Jen Jenny (Jenny) Su Distinguished Professor Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health,
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Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan on Public Health: a Taiwan
Study Study
Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan on Public Health: a Taiwan
Study Study Huey-Jen Jenny (Jenny) Su
Distinguished Professor Dept. of Environmental and Occupational
Extreme rainfall and primary health effect Extreme rainfall and primary health effect Extreme rainfall and primary health effect Extreme rainfall and primary health effect
Wettest tropical cyclones in TaiwanHighest known recorded totals
Examining the Spatial Relationships among Examining the Spatial Relationships among Cardiovascular Mortality after the Extreme Cardiovascular Mortality after the Extreme
Temperature EventsTemperature Events
Examining the Spatial Relationships among Examining the Spatial Relationships among Cardiovascular Mortality after the Extreme Cardiovascular Mortality after the Extreme
Temperature EventsTemperature Events
Extreme temperature events
Cold events (24 events)R2=0.767
Heat events (14 events)R2=0.569
Coefficients 95% C.I. Coefficients95% C.I.
Cardiovascular mortality before extreme temperature events
Reported dengue fever incidence by temperature, relative humidity, Reported dengue fever incidence by temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and rainfall, and
frequency of Breteua Index≧5 from July 1988 to December 2003 frequency of Breteua Index≧5 from July 1988 to December 2003
Reported dengue fever incidence by temperature, relative humidity, Reported dengue fever incidence by temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and rainfall, and
frequency of Breteua Index≧5 from July 1988 to December 2003 frequency of Breteua Index≧5 from July 1988 to December 2003
JUL 1988 JAN 1990JUL 1991 JAN 1993JUL 1994 JAN 1996JUL 1997 JAN 1999JUL 2000 JAN 2002
Predictor for Predictor for Occurrence of Occurrence of Dengue Fever Dengue Fever
in Taiwanin Taiwan
Weather as an Weather as an Effective Effective
Predictor for Predictor for Occurrence of Occurrence of Dengue Fever Dengue Fever
in Taiwanin Taiwan
0 50 100 150 200
0
20
40
60
Actual incidencePredicted incidence (Jul. 1988-Dec. 2003)Forecast incidence (Jan. 2004-Jun. 2006)
Inci
denc
e ra
te (
1/10
0,00
0)
The actual incidence, predicted incidence and forecast incidence from Jan. 2004 to May 2006 by auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of weather variation in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Risk map of dengue fever Risk map of dengue fever transmission estimated when transmission estimated when average monthly temperature average monthly temperature increased by 1 °C across the increased by 1 °C across the
yearyear
Risk map of dengue fever transmission based on
temperature and population density data between 1998
to 200286 high risk areas
Risk map of dengue fever Risk map of dengue fever transmission estimated when transmission estimated when average monthly temperature average monthly temperature
under CCCma A2 scenario under CCCma A2 scenario (increased about 2°C)(increased about 2°C)
48 high risk areas 102 high risk areas
Risk map of dengue fever transmissionRisk map of dengue fever transmissionThe areas with high risk of reporting dengue fever infection would likely to expand from south to north, and human population at high risk for dengue fever transmission would increase 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267) along with increasing temperature.
Pre- and post-typhoon and infectious disease Pre- and post-typhoon and infectious disease incidence rate using Poisson regressionincidence rate using Poisson regression
Pre- and post-typhoon and infectious disease Pre- and post-typhoon and infectious disease incidence rate using Poisson regressionincidence rate using Poisson regression
Disease Name ICD-9 Week& Lag-day# RR※
Japanese Encephalitis
620 8 5-15 1.11 (0.74-1.65)
Scrub Typhus 812 8 6-21 0.97 (0.79-1.19)
Dengue Fever 061 8 3-14 1.36 (1.26-1.47)*
Amoebiasis 006 8 14-28 1.83 (1.03-3.26)*
HAV 701 8 15-50 0.85 (0.52-1.40)
Scarlet Fever 341 4 1-3 1.37 (1.16-1.60)*
Typhoid fever 002 8 7-21 1.91 (1.14-3.20)*
Enterovirus 749 4 2-10 1.39 (1.02-1.91)*&The weeks Pre- and Post-Typhoon # Information from CDC※Rate Ration * p<0.05
Definition of Extreme PrecipitationDefinition of Extreme Precipitation130-200 mm/day: heavy rain200-350 mm/day: torrential rain>350 mm/day: extreme torrential rain(As defined by Taiwan CBW)
Averaged 99th percentile of precipitation for the 352 townships in Taiwan was 92.80 mm/day
ExtrapolationExtrapolationStudy extrapolated the available precipitation and temperature data for every townships.
Extreme precipitation affects infectious disease distributions in Taiwan, 1994–2008
identified that extreme precipitation were associated with the occurrence of 8 climate-related infectious diseases with lags of 0–70 days
1. Time series analysis for Log-term effects in overall Taiwan
2. Grating Models of every townships for regional assessment
Meteorological DataMeteorological DataThe accumulated daily precipitation and mean daily temperature data from Central Weather Bureau (CBW) of Taiwan during 1994 to 2008 were acquired.
Infectious Disease DefinitionsInfectious Disease DefinitionsThe computerized database with recorded daily notification of 8 legal infectious disease cases from Taiwan CDC, 1994–2008. Chen et al., 2011
Relative risk of precipitation on 8 climate-Relative risk of precipitation on 8 climate-related infectious diseases in Taiwan related infectious diseases in Taiwan
Relative risk of precipitation on 8 climate-Relative risk of precipitation on 8 climate-related infectious diseases in Taiwan related infectious diseases in Taiwan
This survey was conducted with 271 adolescents in three junior high schools in mountainous regions of southern Taiwan which were worst-affected by Typhoon Morakot.
In total, 73 students (26.9%) had a diagnosis of PTSD. Of these, 65 had PTSD related to Typhoon Morakot, 3 had PTSD related to traumatic events other than Typhoon Morakot (one experienced a traffic accident, one witnessed a brother’s traffic accident, and one was severely hurt in a fight), and 5 had PTSD related to both Typhoon Morakot and other factors.
Yen et al., 2010
A multidimensional anxiety assessment of A multidimensional anxiety assessment of adolescents after Typhoon Morakot-adolescents after Typhoon Morakot-
29 Relationship between mean daily Relationship between mean daily ambient temperature range and ambient temperature range and
hospitalhospitaladmissions for schizophrenia: results admissions for schizophrenia: results from a national cohort of psychiatric from a national cohort of psychiatric
inpatientsinpatients
Relationship between mean daily Relationship between mean daily ambient temperature range and ambient temperature range and
hospitalhospitaladmissions for schizophrenia: results admissions for schizophrenia: results from a national cohort of psychiatric from a national cohort of psychiatric
inpatientsinpatients
Relationships between mean and mean daily range of temperature and relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of schizophrenia admissions in Taipei city, 1996–2007.Analyzed by generalized linear models with Poisson regression, and adjusted for age, gender, daily precipitation, calendar month, and hospital authority