Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa · Globalization of risk Climate change and increasing climate variabilit,y water shortages and soil losses place severe limits

Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in WestAfrica

René Gommes1

1FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division

WMO-ECOWAS-ILRI-AfDB-FAO-AEMet-ICRISATInternational Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Changein West African Agriculture, Ouagadougou, 27-30 April

2009

René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8019100.stm26 April 2009

Overview

Risk is the "product" of an extreme factor and a vulnerable

system

Globalization of risk

Climate change and increasing climate variability, water

shortages and soil losses place severe limits on food production

(Lester R. Brown, Sci.Am. May 2009)


Overview: the growing role of agriculture

Risk is the "product" of extreme conditions and a vulnerable

system; risk increases and undergoes globalization

Agriculture is a major player in climate change: as a source of

greenhouse gases and user of water resources; therefore,

agriculture is also an integral component of the solutions

Mitigation is the long-term solution, but adaptation continues

to be needed now

International Multilateral Environmental Agreements must

develop mechanisms that are relevant for smallholders in

semi-arid countries


Food aid and food prices. A lesson?Source: Hess & Syroka, CRMG/ARD, 2004


Due to demand, food prices remain highFood prices remain at high levels in many developing countries; February 2009 prices overprevious year: Niger, sorghum +29 % ; Senegal, imported rice +48 %


Causes of high food pricesSource: Evans, 2008: Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Income growth and increasing demand, notably in emerging

economies like China and India, about 50%

Biofuels as a source of demand for grain, about 30%

Climate variability, maybe 10%

Food supply is quite inelastic, i.e. supply responds relatively

slowly to increases in demand

Costs of agricultural inputs � and especially energy � are rising

Speculation, urbanization...

Land and water scarcity and rice and whet yield gaps

Long-term neglect of agricultural investments


Agriculture is a major player in climate change

Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gases: about 30%

of emissions

Most agricultural GHG are "losses" that can be reduced by

increasing e�ciency of agriculture

Agriculture "manages" about 45% of land biomass and about

90% of e�ective water uses

About 80 GT of soil carbon were lost through degradation

since 1850


Carbon pools (GtonsC)Williams et al., 2007


Mitigation potentialGlobal mitigation potential @ 0-20 US$/tCO2


Mitigation and adaptation

Adaptation measures: water harvesting techniques, warning

systems, crop insurance, micro-climate manipulation, advisory

services to farmers incl. Farm Adaptive Dynamic Optimization,

breeding for higher WUE

Mitigation and adaptation

"careful" biofuel approach (environmental and food securityimpacts)advantages of soil sequestration include: increased soil fertility,optimized used of fertilizer (reduction of emissions), improvedsoil biodiversity, improved soil water storage capacity, i.e. moreregular agricultural outputsoil carbon sequestration through various forms of conservationagriculture: potential is real, but insu�cient data are availableto ¨sell¨ the concept as a post-Kyoto option (see LatinAmerican experience)soil sequestration to be introduced in combination with otherrisk-reducing techniques (Insurance, micro-credit)


2008 picture of the year, SwedenEthanol factory in Brazil


Opportunities for involving people in C sequestrationApplies to grasslands; Source: Petri, Batello, Villani & Nachtergaele, 2009


An option for the post-2012 regimeFAO submission to AWG-LCA3: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/smsn/igo/010.pdf

1 Soil carbon to be recognized as an acceptable sequestration

option

2 Operational issues (e.g. accuracy and cost of carbon mapping)

to be sorted out

3 Governments to design national policies to

1 in general, improve use of weather and climate products byfarmers

2 promote local soil carbon sequestration initiatives in crop- andrange-lands. Practices include conservation tillage, mulching,cover crops, integrated nutrient management including use ofmanure and compost, and agroforestry, as well as improvedmanagement of pastures and rangelands.

3 reduce risk associated with of initial adoption of carbonstorage practices

4 distribute bene�ts to small-holders


To conclude...

CC & increasing climate variability, rising temperatures, water

shortages & soil losses place severe limits on food production.

Food scarcity and resulting higher prices are pushing some

countries into chaos (L.R. Brown, Sci.Am. May 2009)

Need to improve capacity to model and plan the future

Even in the absence of a declared climate crisis (comparable to

the Sahelian droughts), vulnerability of West African countries

has increased due to global factors and internal ones

associated with land use

Adaptation and soil carbon restoration has the potential to

help alleviate the risks by

increasing output & reducing variability of food productiontriggering post-2012 UNFCCC �nancial mechanisms that applyin small and non-forested countriesdeveloping national policies to promote soil carbon storage &reduce risks during the adoption phase of the new policies


Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa · Globalization of risk Climate change and increasing climate variabilit,y water shortages and soil losses place severe limits

Documents