Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Vietnam Tingju Zhu 1 and Mai Van Trinh 2 1 International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 2 Institute for Agricultural Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam June 10-12, 2010 Beijing, China International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security (ARFS)
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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Vietnam
Tingju Zhu1 and Mai Van Trinh2
1International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC2Institute for Agricultural Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam
June 10-12, 2010
Beijing, China
International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security (ARFS)
Background
2
• Area - 332 K km2 with 3300
Km coastline
• Population - 85.8 millions
(2009)
• Rapid economic growth
• Agriculture accounts for
~20% GDP, 65%
employment, 30% exports
• Hydro-climatic disasters
cause serious damages
Potential Climate Change Impacts
3
• Vietnam is among a few countries that will be worst
affected by climate change – tropical location, long
coastal line, mega deltas
• Climate change channelizes its impacts on agriculture
through changes in precipitation, temperature,
atmospheric CO2 concentration, and sea level rise
(inundation and salinity intrusion)
• Hydrological impacts of climate change affects water
availability and irrigation
• Adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic
growth and the status of poverty and malnutrition
Climate Change already under Way?Changes of Precipitation, Temperature and Solar Radiation
during 1971-2007
104 106 108
10
12
14
16
18
20
22Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
104 106 108
10
12
14
16
18
20
22Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
104 106 108
10
12
14
16
18
20
22Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-28
-24
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28mm
oCWatt/m2
Rainfall average temperature
radiation
Selection of Climate Scenarios:Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050
Drier Wetter
• Dry Scenario: IPSL-CM4
• Wet Scenario: GISS-ER
• MONRE Scenario
Baseline: 1971-2000
Two Future Period:
2030 (2016-2045)
2050 (2036-2065)
Climate Change Scenarios (I)
Average Country Climate Moisture Index
All climate change scenarios are from IPCC AR4’s GCM projections for
SRES A2 emission scenario
MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change
scenario for A2
Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050
Climate Change Scenarios (II)
Mean Annual Temperature Changes by Agro-ecological Zone (oC)
Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by Agro-ecological Zone (%)