Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts In the Asia In the Asia - - Pacific Region Pacific Region - - Outcomes from the AIM Model Outcomes from the AIM Model - - The Twelfth Asia The Twelfth Asia - - Pacific Seminar Pacific Seminar on Climate Change on Climate Change 30 July 30 July - - 2 August 2002 2 August 2002 Bangkok Bangkok Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies
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Climate Change Impacts In the Asia-Pacific Region€¦ · In the Asia-Pacific Region - Outcomes from the AIM Model - The Twelfth Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change 30 July - 2
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Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsIn the AsiaIn the Asia--Pacific RegionPacific Region
-- Outcomes from the AIM Model Outcomes from the AIM Model --
30 July 30 July -- 2 August 20022 August 2002Bangkok Bangkok
Mikiko KainumaMikiko KainumaNational Institute for Environmental StudiesNational Institute for Environmental Studies
Contents1. Introduction of the AIM (Asian-
Pacific Integrated Model for Climate Change Analysis) model structure
2. Environmental Impacts of projected climate change based on the IPCC/SRES emission scenarios
3 Impacts and effectiveness of
Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:The AIM Approach
Mitigation strategy
ofClimate Change
Adaptationstrategy
ofClimate Change
IPCCUNEPOECD
Eco-AsiaIEAAPNEMFWWF
National Government
Private Company
Apply
Chinese Team
Japanese Team
Indian Team
Korean Team
ThaiTeam
MalaysianTeam
Population Model
lifestyle
Land-use modelEnergy Model
Technology
Economic Model
Atmospheric Chemistry
Climate Change
Ocean Uptake
Carbon Cycle
Ecosystem
Water ResourceSea Level
Rise
Agriculture
HumanHealth
GHG Emission
Climate Change
Climate Impact
Model Development
CO2 Emission (Gt-C)19
90
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
LATIN AMERICANORTH AMERICA
AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTASIA PACIFIC
EUROPE+FORMER USSR01234567
High Growth ScenarioGtC
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
LATIN AMERICANORTH AMERICAAFRICA+MIDDLE EASTASIA PACIFICEUROPE+FORMER USSR
01234567
Low Growth Scenario
GtC
Projection of CO2 emission in the five regionsProjection of CO2 emission in the five regions
Socioeconomic development scenariosfor climate change prediction
Dominance of Economic Value
Balanced Economic/Ecological
Values
Regional Solutions
Global Governance
A2: Cultural Pluralism
B2: Regional Coexistence
population
Economic growthtechnology energy
Agriculture(land use)
Driving Forces
A1: High Growth(A1FI)
(A1T)(A1B)
B1: recycle-based
CO2 Emission ProjectionsBased on SRES Storylines
Car
bon D
ioxi
de E
mis
sions
Inde
x
Year
(1990=1)
A2( Cultural Pluralism)
B1(Recycled-based)
B2(Regional Coexistence)
A1B(High Growth Balanced)
A1FI(High Growth Fossil Intensive)
A1T(High Growth Technology)
0
1
2
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
A1FIA2
B1
ºC
Different development path would Different development path would cause different climate change scenariocause different climate change scenario
1.4 ºC~5.8 ºC
2000 2050 2100
Temperature change between 1990 and 2100
0
0.5
1
Fitte
d pr
obab
ility
and
freq
uenc
y of
occ
urre
nces
1 2 3 4 5 6Temperature change (ºC)
Geometric mean= 2.88 CS.D. of logarithm= 0.346
←5%
1.6
3 C
←50
% 2
.88 C
←95
% 5
.1ºC
Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM
°
1~1.
51.
5~2
2~2.
52.
5~3
3~3.
53.
5~4
4~4.
54.
5~5
5~5.
55.
5~6
B 1 2.0±0.5
A1T 2.5±0.6
B 2 2.7±0.6
A1B 2.9±0.6
A2 3.8±0.8A1F I 4.5±0.9
All 3.1±1.1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temperature change (C)
Freq
uenc
y of
occu
rrenc
es
ºC
Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF
< -
30
-20 ~
-15-5~
0
10~
1525~
30Japan 4.6±9.9%
China 7.2±9.4%
India 3.7±19.5%0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Freq
uenc
y of
oc
curre
nce
Precipitation chang
Precipitation changeTemperature change
<1.0
1.0-
1.5
1.5-
2.0
2.0-
2.5
2.5-
3.0
3.0-
3.5
3.5-
4.0
4.0-
4.5
4.5-
5.0
5.0-
5.5
5.5-
6.0
6.0-
6.5
6.5-
7.0
> 7.
0
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Freq
uenc
y of
oc
curre
nce
Temperature chanGlobal 3.1±1.1 ºC
Japan 3.7±1.3 ºC
China 3.9± 1.4 ºC
India 3.1± 1.1 ºC
e (%)ge (℃)
Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100
Without CO2 fertilization
-100~
-70-70
~-60
-60~
-50-50
~-40
-40~
-30-30
~-20
-20~
-10-10~
00~
1010~2020~
3030~
4040~5050~
Japan 24.3±4.4%
China 33.2±12.5%
India -34.3±16.1%
Canada 90.6±19.8%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Productivity cha
Freq
uenc
y of
oc
curre
nce
-100~-70
-70~-60
-60~-50
-50~-40
-40~-30
-30~-20
-20~-10-10~
00~1010~
2020~3030~
4040~5050~
Japan -6.5±1.5%
China -5.9±10.6%
India -53.2±19.9%
Canada 29.7±6.9%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Productivity chang
Freq
uenc
y of
oc
curre
nce
With CO2 fertilization
e (%)nge (%)
A simulation of Malaria epidemic potential
AIM/HEALTH
Change of country population ratio living in Malarial epidemic area from 1990 to 2100
No change0~
55~
1010~
1515~
2020~
2525~
3030~
3535~
4040~
4545~
5050~
5555~
6060~
65
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
Freq
uenc
y of
oc
curre
nce
Change of percentage (
Brazil 33.6±16
China 17.9±6.7%
India 3.7±1.7%
Indonesia 10.7±4.5%
%) .7%
Impacts of Emission Reduction on
global climate and global economy
Impacts of emission reduction on global climate and global economy in year 2100
Post-SRES
0~0.
50.
5~1
1~1.
51.
5~2
2~2.
52.
5~3
3~3.
53.
5~4
4~4.
54.
5~5
5~5.
55.
5~6
SR ES 3.1±1.1C
450ppm 1.7±0.38C
550ppm 2.1±0.45C
650ppm 2.3±0.49C
750ppm 2.5±0.53C0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Temperature change (ºC)
(1) Temperature change from 1990 to 2100
A1F I
A2A1
BB2
A1T
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
4.13.6
1.9
0.90.3
2.9 3.3
0.90.6
0.0
2.3 2.3
0.40.3
0.0
1.2 1.2
0.0 0.00.0
0.01.02.03.04.05.0
GDP loss (%)
(2) Percentage reduction relative tobaseline
Frequency of
occurrence
550ppm 2.1± 0.45ºC450ppm 1.7± 0.38 ºC
SRES 3.1± 1.1ºC
750ppm 2.5± 0.53ºC650ppm 2.3± 0.49ºC
Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization
-70~
-65
-65~
-60
-60~
-55
-55~
-50
-50~
-45
-45~
-40
-40~
-35
-35~
-30
-30~
-25
-25~
-20
-20~
-15
-15~
-10
-10~
-5-5
~0
0~5
5~10
SRES -34±16%
450ppm -14±5.8%
550ppm -20±6.8%
650ppm -26±7.0%
750ppm -29±7.8%
0.000.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Productivity change (%)
Freq
uenc
y of
occu
rrenc
e
-29±7.8%-26±7.0%
-14±5.8%-34±16%
-20±6.8%
Recovery of economic welfare decrease by climate change mitigation
caused by crop productivity change, India, year 2100
-15~
-14.
2-1
4.2~
-13.
4-1
3.4~
-12.
6-1
2.6~
-11.
8-1
1.8~
-11
-11~
-10.
2-1
0.2~
-9.4
-9.4~
-8.6
-8.6~
-7.8
-7.8~
-7-7
~-6
.2-6
.2~-5
.4-5
.4~-4
.6-4
.6~-3
.8-3
.8~-3
-3~
-2.2
-2.2~
-1.4
-1.4~
-0.6
0.000.10
0.200.30
0.40
Equivalent variation change (%)
Frequency of occurrence
SRES
550ppm
650ppm
750ppm
-6.8±2.0%
450ppm -4.3±0.76%
-4.9±1.1%
-5.4±1.4%
-6.0±1.4%
The AIM as INTERNATIONAL The AIM as INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION PROGRAMCOLLABORATION PROGRAM
LHLH
NIESNIES
ERIERI
IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL
IIASAIIASA
Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.
JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)
AITAIT
PUTRAPUTRA
KEIKEISMUSMU
IGSNRRIGSNRR
AIM/Emission ModelAIM/Emission Model
LHLH
NIESNIES
ERIERI
IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL
IIASAIIASA
Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.
JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)
CO2 emissions in Mt-C from all iron and steel sources , 2000CO2 emissions in Mt-C from all iron and steel sources , 2000
AIM/Impact ModelAIM/Impact Model
LHLH
NIESNIES
ERIERI
IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL
IIASAIIASA
Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.
JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)
AITAIT
PUTRAPUTRA
KEIKEISMUSMU
IGSNRRIGSNRR
Increase in drought risks (2 degree C increase)Increase in drought risks (2 degree C increase)
5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
%5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
%
Change of low flow discharge
5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
%5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
5060708090
100110120130140150160170
190180
200
%
Change of low flow discharge
AIM/Material ModelAIM/Material Modelfor economic development and environmental conservationfor economic development and environmental conservation
LHLH
NIESNIES
ERIERI
IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL
IIASAIIASA
Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.
JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)
AITAIT
PUTRAPUTRA
KEIKEISMUSMU
IGSNRRIGSNRR
ChinaChinaIndiaIndia
JapanJapan
•• Country ModelCountry Model•• Computable general equilibrium model with Computable general equilibrium model with
material balancematerial balance•• Recursive dynamicsRecursive dynamics•• Including environmental industry andIncluding environmental industry and
environmental investmentenvironmental investment•• Economic impact due to CO2 & waste constraints, Economic impact due to CO2 & waste constraints,
and recovery by environmental investmentand recovery by environmental investment
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.02000 2005 2010
Year
GD
P ch
ange
[tri.
Yen
at 1
995
pric
e]
GD
P lo
ssG
DP
reco
very
Economic impact due to CO2 and waste constraintsEconomic impact due to CO2 and waste constraints
Target CountryTarget CountryDetailed Model Application (Model A)25 countries