CRICOS #00212K Environmental health: protecting the ecosystems beyond the Millennium Development Goals Prof Colin D Butler ARC Future Fellow November 24-27, 2013, Ibadan, Nigeria Climate change health impacts, current adaptation strategies and the future
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CRICOS #00212K
Environmental health: protecting the ecosystems beyond the
Millennium Development Goals
Prof Colin D Butler ARC Future Fellow
November 24-27, 2013, Ibadan, Nigeria
Climate change health impacts, current adaptation
strategies and the future
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SummaryClimate change science
Climate change and health: primary, secondary and
tertiary effects.
Rich countries mostly to blame; poor countries will
suffer first, but rich countries will be affected
The best adaptation in poor countries is development,
but that needs equity, education and slower population
growth (including in Nigeria)
The health lobby must use its voice to call for energy
transformation.3
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Most radiation
absorbed by
Earth, warming it
solar strength varies slightly
Aerosols: net cooling
effect
Feedback - additional
GHGs
4
Climate change:
basic science
some energy radiated
back to space as
infrared wavesSome infrared trapped
by minor atmospheric
gases, warming Earth
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CH4 CO2
Green house gases
N2O
Sulfate particles
Radiative forcing
NO2
CH4
O3
CH4
CO2
Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof
Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen,
Denmark
wetlands, rice, tundra,
biomass burning,
deforestation
CO2 CH4, black carbon
CO2
5
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Global mean surface temperature: 1850-2012 Rainfall intensity : 1900-2011
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Sea Level: 1993-2012
Earth system
observations
Greenland ice melt 2013
Held, 2013
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Secondary
Tertiary
Primary
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Heat waves, fewer cold
waves, injuries, floods,
fires, occupational heat
Infectious diseases,
especially vector borne,
allergies, air pollutantssecondary
primary
tertiary
famine, conflict,
population
displacement, refugees
8
Mentalhealth
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despair, economic loss,
exposure to asbestos,
mould
40.3o 7.1.13; 40.2o 8.1.13
Bundaberg 25.1.13
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Typhoon Haiyan - 2013
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Old location
12
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3650m
(13,000 feet)
13
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Waterscarcity
Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
• sea level rise
• pre-existing hunger
• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence[May RM, 2007 Lowy
Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions