Munich Re – Ernst Rauch Oktober 2019 Climate Change – Global Warming Munich Re’s Perspective 1 Climate Change – Global Warming Munich Re’s Perspective 52 nd IMIA Meeting Vienna – 23 October 2019 Ernst Rauch Chief Climate & Geo Scientist Global Head Climate & Public Sector Business Development Quelle: Stoonn / shutterstock.com Climate change today increasing temperatures – higher weather hazards 2 approx. 1°C warming since 1900 Sea Level Rise Extreme weather events Wildfire extent Source: Munich Re, based on National Centers for Environmental Information/NOAA.
11
Embed
Climate Change Global Warming Munich Re’s Perspective€¦ · Location of maximum cyclone intensity is moving southward over time 6 distance southward from equator Source: NATHAN
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Munich Re – Ernst Rauch Oktober 2019
Climate Change – Global WarmingMunich Re’s Perspective 1
Climate Change – Global Warming
Munich Re’s Perspective
52nd IMIA Meeting Vienna – 23 October 2019
Ernst Rauch
Chief Climate & Geo Scientist
Global Head Climate & Public Sector Business Development
Inflation adjusted via country-specific consumer price index and consideration of exchange rate fluctuations between local currency and US$.
Geophysical events
Meteorological events
Hydrological events
Climatological events
Uninsured losses (in 2018 values) Insured losses (in 2018 values)
NatCatSERVICE
Global increase in population From 4 billion (1975) to 7.6 billion (2018)
Improved standard of living Middle class is growing rapidly worldwide
Concentration of people / assets
in urban areas
Share of urban population is increasing continually:
37% (1975) - 50% (2010) - 57% (2025)
Settlement and industrialization of
vulnerable areasEspecially coastal areas, areas close to rivers
Increase of complexity and
interdependencies
Increasing complexity of value chains (i.e. production
cycles) in industrial facilities
Climate ChangeIntensification and accumulation of extreme weather
events in certain areas
Not necessarily
problematic for
insurers
(premiums grow
proportionally
with risk)
Problematic for
insurers, if risk
models are not
adjusted
accordingly
Drivers for globally increasing losses from natural hazards
8
Munich Re – Ernst Rauch Oktober 2019
Climate Change – Global WarmingMunich Re’s Perspective 5
9
The NatCat Insurance Gap by income group: still a serious issue not only in low-income countries
*Income classification defined by World Bank: high-income countries GNI ≥ 12,055 US$; low-income countries GNI ≤ 995 US$; based on Munich Re NatCatSERVICE data
Insurance gap in high- (left) and low-income* (right) countries 1980-2017 based on MR NatCatSERVICE
Since 1980 the insurance gap (uninsured losses as a share of overall losses) has significantly decreased
in high-income countries (below 60%), while in low-income countries it is still >95%.
Convective storm events* in West Europe 1980 – 2017uninsured and insured losses
10
Uninsured losses (in 2018 values) Insured losses (in 2018 values)
Inflation adjusted via country-specific consumer price index and consideration of exchange rate fluctuations between local currency and US$.*Convective storm events include: tempest / severe storm, tornado, lightning, hailstorm, flashflood
Inflation adjusted via country-specific consumer price index and consideration of exchange rate fluctuations between local currency and US$. Normalization via local GDP developments measured in US$. *Convective storm events include: tempest / severe storm, tornado, lightning, hailstorm, flashflood
Convective storm events* in West Europe 1980 – 2017 Costliest events ordered by inflation adjusted overall losses