Climate Change, Geology, Astronomy and Fossil Fuels · However, Individual volcanic eruptions cool the planet because the particles ejected from volcanoes shade incoming solar radiation.

Climate Change, Geology, Astronomy and Fossil Fuels

www.RayLeonard.consulting

Planetary temperatures have varied by about 20

degrees C in the past 500 million years. In the

past 300 million years there have been two very

cold periods, including the present, bracketing

an extremely warm period. Even the more

pessimistic global warming scenarios by 2100 are

far below early Tertiary temperatures

➢Plate tectonics

➢Volcanic activity

➢ Solar Radiation

➢Ocean currents

➢Air currents

➢Atmospheric

composition

Extreme

volcanism

Opening of Drake

passage

Antarctic glaciation

Pangaea

supercontinent

Formation of

Arctic polar cap

21st century

human

warmingMilankovitch

cycles

A number of factors have long, medium

and short term influence on climate

Climate Change has been a constant through Earth’s history

Plate Tectonics: Certain configurations can

lead to extremely warm or cold climates➢ 300 MYA a multi-continental mass located near

the South pole resulted in massive glaciation

and a cold climate in early Carboniferous time

➢ By 250 MMYA the continental mass straddled

the equator, reaching both polar regions with

the lack of global current circulation resulting

in the hot Permian-Triassic climate

➢ The creation of the Drake passage, separating

South America and Antarctica, 34 MYA, allowed

formation of the Circumpolar current, resulting

in Antarctic glaciation and cooling during

Tertiary

➢ By 3 MYA, continued cooling allowed a

permanent north polar cap in the restricted

circulation Arctic Ocean, giving the planet two

polar caps for the first time, resulting in record

low temperatures

➢ Due to pace of tectonic movements, this is

not a factor in current climate change

debate

CCSM3

Volcanic activity is a factor and has varied through time

However, Individual volcanic eruptions cool the

planet because the particles ejected from

volcanoes shade incoming solar radiation. But

the largest eruptions in the past 150 years

appeared to only temporarily depress global

temperatures by 0.2-0.3 degree C in a

subsequent 1-3 year period. They did not have a

noticeable effect on CO2 atmospheric content

and are not a significant factor in the current

climate change debate.

As discussed later high atmospheric CO2 content is

associated with a warm climate. Massive volcanic

activity releases CO2 in the atmosphere. The late

Cretaceous through Paleogene was a period of

extremely high volcanic activity with the

separation of South America and Africa, followed by

the breakup of the various southern continents plus

opening of the North Atlantic. This level of

volcanic activity was far higher than the individual

eruptions we see at present.

Late-Cretaceous-Paleogene spreading and resultant volcanic activityFrom Blakey, Ross and Scotese

Solar and Planetary activity also

needs to be taken into account

Variation in the earths orbit, tilt and axis, combined

with the unbalanced distribution of the continents,

(59% of land is between 15 and 75 degrees north)

has resulted in fluctuations in solar radiation

received in the past millions of years, leading to

cycles of glaciation and warming

Increased solar activity means higher

level of solar radiation leading to

higher temperatures. (ave. 0.2 deg C

between solar max and min since

1950) The lower solar activity in the

17th century and early 19th century

corresponds to cooler global

temperatures. The past 60 years have

seen a decreasing solar max.

Observations from

satellites have confirmed

the 11 year sunspot cycles

“Little ice

age”

Universe Today

SAS, 2014

Ocean currents play a significant role in climate variation The modern ocean current pattern was established

around 34 MYA with the formation of the Antarctic

circumpolar current, isolating the continent and

initiating glaciation. Restricted circulation to the Arctic

and cooling temperatures allowed the formation of the

Artic polar cap over the Arctic ocean about 3 MYA.

El Nino, an anomalous warming of the Pacific Current, is

associated with warmer global temperatures. El Nino

currents occur at 2 to 7 year intervals. With the warming

ocean they are getting stronger; the three strongest ever

recorded have been in 1984, 1998 and 2016. Strongest El Nino associated with warmest

global temperatures ever recorded in 2016

NOAA

NOAA

Air currents and melting of the Arctic Polar Cap will also play

role in changing climate, particularly in the northern hemisphere

The Arctic and Antarctic polar ice caps have contributed to

polar climates that are separated from temperate zones by

powerful jet streams. The rapidly warming arctic is weakening

the jet stream in the northern hemisphere, allowing warm air

to reach northern latitudes (accelerating melting) and

occasionally, cold (and eventually cool) air to penetrate south.

By mid century, the northern polar cap will have largely

disappeared part of the year, making this phenomenon far more

common. Westerlies and trade winds appear to be losing

energy affecting currents in ways we are only discovering now.

NOAA

The composition of the atmosphere, in particular, Carbon Dioxide

(CO2) is tied to global temperatures throughout Earth’s history

The three major greenhouse

gases are CO2, 76% (80% of

emissions come from fossil

fuels), Methane 16% (20% from

fossil fuels) and Nitrous Oxide

6% (10% from fossil fuels)

CO2 levels in geologic history can be estimated from the fossil and

geochemical record. Actual measurement in ice cores of the past

million years have verified the methodology. The formation of the

Antarctic and Arctic ice caps, as well and the Carboniferous glaciation

corresponds to the lower CO2 levels .

Antarctic ice cap

Arctic ice cap

Carboniferous

glaciation

CO2 is the primary GHG

NOAA

Foster et al, 2017,

adapted, Montenez, 2018

Permo-Triassic heat

and extinction

Increase in CO2 adds “human-

induced factor” to natural processes

Pace of CO2

increase rising;

ave. 2 ppm/year

2000-2010,

ave. 3 ppm

2010-2019.

➢ CO2 increase coincided with industrial revolution in late 1800’s

➢ Pace increased after WW2 (1950’s) with industrial expansion in

USA, Europe, USSR and Japan

➢ Additional pulse in 21st century with industrialization of China

➢ Initial CO2 increase from coal, followed by oil with resurgence

of coal in 21st century in China

➢ Minor temperature increase until 1960

Methane Emissions: What is real story?Methane is natural gas and it is 25X more potent as GHG in long term. (80X in

short term) With the proposal of utilization of natural gas as a bridge fuel

with 60% production increase by 2040, the actual methane emissions from

natural gas production, transport and use is an important question.

• Methane concentrations are rising at almost double (257% vs 146%) the rate of CO2

since pre-industrial time.

• As a result, even though methane currently accounts for only 16% of greenhouse

gases, it is estimated to be the cause of 25% of the greenhouse gas increase

• Natural gas production has been rising at a higher rate than other fossil fuels and it

is possible that methane leaks in the production, transmission and use are a factor

in the increase in the past decade.

The biggest danger of future methane

emissions increase may come from a

different source. With the warming of

the arctic extensive melting of the

permafrost is already taking place

releasing large amounts of methane.

Source, National Geographic, 2014

Methane

emission

when

ice

cover

removed

Temperatures have not been increasing uniformly

Since 1980, land air

temperatures have been

rising at rate of 0.35 deg.

C per decade, 50% higher

than the overall rise

Arctic temperatures since 1980

are rising at TWICE the rate of

land temperatures.

Temperatures at high altitudes

in temperate latitudes are

warming at same rate as Arctic

causing rapid melting of

glaciers

NASA GISS

How are the accelerated temperature

increases affecting the polar regions?In the Arctic, the proportion of

multi year ice has dropped from

60% to 30% since 1984. When

multi year ice is gone, probably by

mid-century, the pole will be ice

free in the summer months.

Due to the warming Pacific

Ocean, West Antarctica has

experienced double the

temperature increase of the

rest of the continent since 1950

While most of

Antarctica may

take centuries to

melt, the West

Antarctica ice

sheet is in

danger of more

immediate

collapse, possibly

in this century

NASA

EFFECTS TO BE FELT IN THE 21ST CENTURYOcean acidification: approximately

30% of increased CO2 is absorbed by

ocean, reducing pH. Acidity of ocean

has increased by 30% in past half

century and will increase another 30%

by 2050. Dying of coral reefs is

“canary in coal mine” and early

indicator of major marine life

changes.

Sea Level Rise: If rate of sea level rise continues increase by 50% every 15

years, rise of 2 meters by 2100 will devastate East and Gulf Coast, USA

NOAANOAA

Source

NOAA

What has happened so far in 2019?

Despite the solar activity at a minimum

in the 11-year cycle and a weak El Nino

current, global temperatures in June

were the highest ever recorded for that

month and July was the hottest month

on the planet since temperatures have

been recorded

The weakening jet stream

allowed high pressure with North

Africa like temperatures to drift

north over Europe resulting in

temperatures around 40 deg. C in

Paris, London and Berlin. This

happened in June and July. The

heat wave headed for Greenland!Jet Stream July 24, 2019. Source

Earth Simulator, NASA. Below temp.

anomaly July 27

2019

“Wobble” in the jet stream” July 27: Greenland 20-25 degrees hotter

than normal

The events in 2019 have especially impacted the Arctic

North polar cap of 2019 has limited

solid ice by SeptemberThe heat waves of June and July drifting north

from Europe to Greenland resulted in a melt of

>40% and 60% of glacial areas, four times the

normal amount

Over 60% of Greenland surface area

melting in first week of August

The hot and dry weather caused massive

fires in Siberia, and lesser fires in Alaska

and Canada in August. Note fires in the

Amazon and Central Africa.

Areas of solid

>90% ice

Summer

melts over

4x normal

area

A look a recent geologic history shows

possibility of accelerated pace of change

Gornitz, NASA 2012

Current sea level rise has accelerated to 4.4

MM/year. During the MWP-1Ag event around 13,800

years ago, sea level rise averaged 26-53 mm/year

for several hundred years. This was likely due in

large part to breaking off of a major ice sheet from

Antarctica.

Computer

models

“fingerprint”

much of

meltwater to

Antarctica

Other events indicating possibility of accelerated change (and warming) above current

predictions:1. With the rapid temperature rise in the Arctic, the melting of the permafrost will accelerate, releasing vast

quantities of methane, which is 80 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 in the short (10-year) term

2. Weakening of the northern jet stream rapidly changing the northern hemisphere climate: The recent drift

of the heatwave to Europe and drift north to Greenland shows how this is taking place

3. We have yet to see a change in the global currents, but with the warming of the oceans (and increased

strength of the last three major El Nino’s), breaking of ice barriers to the north and massive flow of cold

meltwater from Greenland, a shift could be coming

4. Breaking off of a major ice sheet from Greenland or West Antarctica could case a 5-10 M sea level rise in a

century or less. This happened less than 14,0000 year ago.

How will climate change affect Nigeria?

Nigeria will be one of the most

adversely affected countries

on the planet by climate

change in the coming decades

Ways in which Nigeria

will be affected➢Rising temperature with

consequences for human

health

➢Drought in northern portion

of country with resulting

agriculture loss

➢ Increased risk of extreme

precipitation events in

South, leading to flooding

➢ Sea level rise, resulting in

flooding and even

relocations

Climate Change impacts in Nigeria

By 2100 Lagos climate will resemble Burkino Faso or Chad temperatures

in high and moderate emission scenarios. Climate Central and World

Meteorological Association. 2017

Northern Nigeria is projected to lose up to

50% of agricultural productivity due to

increased temperatures and drought

Sea level rise: By 2100,

Lagos and the Niger Delta

will be seriously affected

by sea level rise estimated

at 2 meters

National Geographic 2014

Z. N. Musa et al. 2019

Based on current trends, what is likely future?

Simulations have been run, identifying potential

scenarios depending on how the nations of the

world react to the enfolding climate change.

❑ RCP2.6: Immediate reduction in use of fossil

fuels, net zero CO2 emission in 50 years.

Temperature increase about 2 degrees C. CO2

atmosphere content limited to below 500 PPM.

❑ RCP4.5: Peak of CO2 emissions at 40 Gt/yr,

reducing to 50% of level by 2080. Temperature

increase about 3 degrees C. CO2 atmosphere

content limited to below 700 ppm.

❑ RCP6: Likely result of Paris climate accord,

CO2 emissions peak at 60 Gt/yr. in 2080,

temperature increase about 3.5 degrees C.

CO2 content above 800 ppm by 2100

❑ RCP8.5: No restriction on combustion of fossil

fuels, following trend of first 15 years of 21st

century. CO2 emission reach 100 Gt./yr.,

temperature increase up to 5 degrees C and

CO2 atmosphere content 1000 ppm by 2100.

Unfortunately, RCP2.6 will not

happen. However, enough of

the world recognizes the

danger so that RCP8.5 is

equally unlikely to occur.

What needs to happen for

RCP4.5 be the path that is

followed rather than RCP 6?

COAL

Natural Gas/LNG

Greenhouse Gas Emissions for oil are less than coal and greater than natural gas. However,

there is a wide difference in Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different Oil Types!

Since it is unrealistic to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in the near term, we can

at least shift to lower GHG emitting fossil fuels

Adapted from Carnegie

Endowment Oil Climate Index

Hydrocarbons produced by tight

oil/fracking

Flaring of

associated

gas removes

low GHG

benefits of

tight oil

production!

HC Emission plan to achieve RCP 4.5 Climate change Goals

The plan is to reduce coal production, have oil

production “plateau” and utilize natural gas as

“transition fuel” while building up renewable +

nuclear share of energy generation. This will

result in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels gradually

reducing from present level of 33 billion tons/year

to 31 billion tons in 2040 with further reduction to

25 billion tons in 2060. To incentivize nations to

move in this direction, the following steps will be

necessary:

1. A “SMART” targeted carbon tax, starting with

the highest GHG emitting fossil fuels

2. Halt construction of new coal-fired power

station as soon as practical

3. Reduction and then elimination of gas flaring

4. Utilization of the proceeds from the carbon tax

used as directed in each country

0

5000

10000

15000

2016 2025 2040 2060

HC production (MMT/yr)

Coal Oil Gas

0

50

100

150

2016 2025 2040 2060

OIL PRODUCTION TYPEHeavy and ultra heavy conventional tight oil and NGL's

0

10

20

30

40

2016 2025 2040 2060

CO2 Emissions (billion tons/yr)

Coal Oil Gas

Recent events in USA have made this scenario possible

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

DryGasProduction(bcf/d)

ChartTitle

AllOther Lower48offshore Tightgas ShaleGasSource:EIA&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc. EIA2019/AEO 2019/AEO1990-2030AGGREGATEDOIL&GASSUPPLYFORECASTS

Shale Gas

Shalegasaccountsfor67%(59bcf/d)ofU.S.naturalgasproductiontodayandisexpectedtoincreaseto75%(80bcf/d)by2032

U.S.naturalgasproductionhasincreased68%from53to88bcf/dsince2000

Tight GasLower48Offshore

AllOther

History Projections

Utilizing “fracking”, USA gas production has doubled from

2006 to the present with the price declining by 70%. Gas is

replacing coal in electricity generation, resulting in

largest GHG decline in USA of any county in past decade.

USA Electricity Generation

USCA,

2019

What has USA surge in LNG Exports done to world price?

➢US LNG exports have increased to 140

billion cubic feet/month by mid 2019,

making US #3 exporter in the world. This

amount will double by end 2020. By

2030, US will be #1 exporter.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

US Gulf and East Coast Other new LNG oil index

2019 LNG Costs

transportation liquification supply cost total

➢US Gulf and East Coast costs are lower than

competitors due to existing infrastructure

and often “brownfield” construction of

facilities at former import stations and

lowest price of gas supply

➢ The current spot price has dropped to

below $5/mmbtu, making the shift from

coal to LNG more affordable for the rest of

the world and defeating efforts to price

LNG on par with oilJuly 2019Jan 2018

USA Tight Oil Production is the new dominant factor in the oil market

❖ From April 2015 to September 2016, USA tight oil production

declined by 0.5 MMBOD, however, the industry cut costs,

improved technology and found a more economic play in the

Permian Basin. USA tight oil production (not including NGL’s)

increased by >2 MMBOD in 2017-18.

❖ US tight oil plays produce average 85% of ultra-light oil (>40

deg. API), the lowest greenhouse gas emitting oil

❖ By 2040, 1/3 of world oil production will be ultra-light and

natural gas liquids

❖ Tight oil has different qualities from conventional and heavy

crudes, in particluar lacking Vacuum Residue with high

content of Naptha

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

EagleFord Permian Bakken AvgTightOil ConventionalU.S.

U.S.TightOilPlaysAverage2%Intermediate-HeavyOil(<35°API)

&13%LightOil(35-40° API)- 85%isUltra-LightOil(>40° API)

40- 45° API

45- 50° API

>50° API

45- 50° API

>50° API

35- 40° API

40- 45° API

<35° APISource:DrillingInfo&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.

<35° API

35- 40° API

4.30

6.35

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-1

7

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Increm

ental*

Prod

uctio

nSin

ceApril2

015(m

mb/d)

Source:EIA,DrillingInfo&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.

Bakken

AnadarkoNiobrara

Permian

EagleFord

Bakken

Base

Apr2015Max

Niobrara

2015PeakLevel

Permianproductionaccountsfor64%oftightoilgrowthsince2015Marchtightoilproductionwas6.35mmb/d---53%ofallU.S.crude+condensate

barrels Permian Bakken EagleFord Anadarko Niobrara

IncrementalSince2015 2,015,038 397,718 165,633 198,430 184,809

PercentIncrease 64% 30% 14% 58% 55%

Incremental

mmb/d

Since Apr2015

EagleFord

EIA2019/DUC-DPR/dpr-data_MASTER

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Permian-Delaware

Permian-Midland

DJ Basin

Eagle Ford

Bakken

Powder River Basin

Break even price cited by industry* Price when overhead and other costs

included**

Price when cost of land

included

*assumes 10% ROR for individual well. **This number should drop by

about $5/bbl. when new pipeline construction in Permian is completed

Crude oil price

$/barrel

What are the economics of tight oil and is it

profitable at $50/bbl oil?

Source: WSJ, MacKenzie, Dec 2018

In Permian, where virtually all USA growth will take place, $50/bbl. oil will be

profitable, especially for companies that already hold the land position and for DUC’s

What is the future of the tight oil play in the USA?

Production has probably

reached a plateau in two

initial major plays,

Bakken and Eagle Ford, at

1.4 MMBO/D each. Source

US EIA

The Permian Oil play production is still

increasing, as it shifts from the Midland

to the Delaware Basin. Production will

continue to increase by >1 MMBO/D

through the next 2-3 years.

old

Midland

vs. new

Delaware

Technology is driving the Permian boom:

Chevron example shows 100% increase in

Delaware basin and 30% increase in

Midland basin ultimate well recovery in 2

years, increasing lateral length 35%,

decreasing cost per barrel 25% at same

time

US EIA

Is the Tight oil revolution in North America a positive

or negative factor in addressing climate change?There are three positive factors, but two negative factors:✓ Inexpensive gas has facilitated a switch from coal to gas in USA for power generation

✓ The surge in US LNG exports is making the switch from coal to gas for power

affordable for much of the world

✓ Oil produced from tight reservoirs is the lowest GHG emitting oil

However, in the rush to rapid development, the two negative factors

threaten to undermine the positives: flaring and methane emissions

An independent study published by the Journal Science

documented methane leaks at double the level reported by the

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The surge in US

natural gas production is could be a factor in the more rapid

methane increase compared to CO2 in the past decade

Gas flaring by country 2018 in billion cubic

meters. USA may pass Russia as #1 flaring

country in world. Note Nigeria flaring 1/3

amount despite only 12% of USA oil production.

Source: Adapted from Statistica, 2019

Projected

Est. 21.0

BCM in

2019

Source: Alvarez et al,

Science, 2018

Paris Climate Agreement, while well-meaning, is

seriously flawed and needs to be renegotiated

Key points in climate agreement: (signed November 2016)

➢ Limit temperature increase to 2 degrees C above global temperature in

1880, with hope(?) to limit to 1.5 deg. C increase

➢ Each country to set internal goal, no enforcement mechanism

➢ Non-binding commitments to mobilize finances of $100 billion USD by 2025

to support growth of renewable energy and mitigate hardships of shift from

fossil fuels

➢ Review of progress and targets every five years

Flaws in the agreement

➢ Goal is unrealistic and unachievable. Increase of 1.1 degrees has already

taken place. 2018 IPCC report predicts 3.2 degree C increase if pledges

through 2030 implemented with continuing trend.

➢ There is no mechanism to drive the shift to renewables and lower carbon

emission hydrocarbons and no penalty for failure to achieve goals

➢ The voluntary goals do not solve the problem. Developed nations that have

already been reducing emissions are asked to continue to do so while the

developing nations, can continue to increase.

➢ The agreement does not address cross nation contributions, such as exports

of high GHG emitting fossil fuels or funding of coal fired power plants in

other countries.

Fossil fuel emissions (80% of total)

What can be done in Nigeria to address Climate Change?There are three broad areas that can be addressed1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel industry: Nigeria is a

major oil and gas producer and should continue to enact programs to reduce

flaring and methane emissions. Such efforts have started and need to be

intensified.

2. Assume a regional leadership role: Nigeria is the largest country in sub-

Saharan Africa in many categories and this region, taken as a whole, could

make a material difference for the world to reach an RCP 4.5 scenario and

avoid the worst climate scenarios. Organizations such as OAS and ECOWAS

may provide the forum to propose and ultimately implement regional policies.

3. Be realistic about preparations for the future: Even in a realistic best-case

scenario (RCP 4.5) there will be severe climate change repercussions for

Nigeria. This will include temperature rise, drought in the north and

increased severe weather events, flooding and sea level rise along the coast

and in the Niger Delta. Preparations need to be made accordingly.

Cycle 22

plateau

Cycle 23 plateau

Cycle 24 plateau

Cycle 20-21 plateau

However, increasing CO2 levels appear to be the dominating factor. 2019

temperatures comparable to 2016/7 despite solar minimum and weak El

Nino. New warmer plateau could start as early as 2023 if strong El Nino

occurs during next solar radiation cycle.

Cycle 25

plateau?

Can we predict the future temperature?

El Nino years: Size

reflects intensity

A

ECP

A,EC,P: Result of

Volcanic

eruptions?

We are in the midst of the latest interglacial

cycle, with the astronomical parameters most

similar to the cycle 400,000 years ago. Without

the human factor (increased CO2 and methane)

we would expect the next “ice age” to begin

within the next 5-10,000 years.

Solar radiation maximum has been decreasing for

the past 60 years; without the CO2 effect, we could

be heading to a “Dalton Minimum” associated with

the cooler temperatures of the early 19th century

Similar Milankovich parameters

Dalton

Minimum

New

minimum?

Best, 2018

Royal Obs. Belgium

Ice volume

2019 ave.

temp.

similar to

2017 with

June/July

equal to

2016

Summary and Conclusions There are multiple factors that affect climate

change. To point to any one factor alone is inaccurate and potentially misleading

Without the effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, the climate would probably be headed for a cooler period, in the near term due to decreased solar radiation and in the longer term due to the ending of the current interglacial cycle

The increased CO2 content, clearly linked to the combustion of fossil fuels, is likely to change this trend, leading to a warming period.

The factors affecting climate tend to reinforce each other, therefore, this process is accelerating.

The most realistic course of action, avoiding the extreme outcome would be to shift to use of the lower greenhouse gas emitting hydrocarbons in the coming decades while building up energy generation from renewable and low carbon energy sources.

This will require an unprecedented level of world cooperation, including a much stronger agreement than the current Paris Climate Accord

“if we do not deal with reality,

reality will deal with us”