Climate Change Copenhagen Discord Climate Change Copenhagen Discord Walter Mendoza February Dialogues Fireflies Ashram February 17, 2010.

Climate Change

Copenhagen Discord

Climate Change

Copenhagen Discord

Walter Mendoza

February DialoguesFireflies AshramFebruary 17, 2010

The basis in Science

The latest is the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report,

"Climate Change 2007".

AR4

The basis in Science

Nobel Peace Prize 2007

Al Gore and IPCC

• Net CO2 emissions = 7.9 GtC/yr

• Net CO2 intake capacity = 3.1 GtC/yr

• Excess CO2 emissions = 4.8 GtC/yr, 55% more than intake capacity

Total and per capita emissions

8

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1.94 2.07

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9.65 9.37

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World average 4 tonnes per person per yearCan sustain 2 tonnes per person per year

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Who?

As is GHG dumping

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Reduce – to converge

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Increase to convergeClimate justice

Equity

THE POLITICS

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

 191 countries have ratified the Convention

recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource

it is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to* gather and share information

greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices

* launch national strategiesfor addressing greenhouse gas emissions and

adapting to expected impacts,* cooperate in preparing for adaptation

to the impacts of climate changeincluding the provision of financial and technological support

to developing countries

THE POLITICS

COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995 

Common but Differentiated responsibilities

Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments

Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP)

to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by

2000

THE POLITICS

The Kyoto Protocol   It is a protocol to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement

under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective

emissions of greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to the year 1990

calculated as an average over the five-yearcommitment period of 2008-12

The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

THE POLITICS

Flexible Mechanisms

CDMs

THE POLITICS

COP13 - Bali 2007

The Bali Action Plan:

Twin track Process

IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% < 1990 levels

THE POLITICS

COP 14 at Poznan, Poland

The National Action Plan on Climate ChangeIndia

Key issues for Copenhagen

350 / 450? ppm

2°C / 1.5°C

ISSUES INVOLVED

• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries

ISSUES INVOLVED

• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries

• bogey

increased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countries

• elephant in the room

population!

ISSUES INVOLVED

• Inadequate current reduction targets compared to urgency of the problem

IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40%

EU : 20% - 30%

US : 17%

Japan : 25%

ISSUES INVOLVED

• Fudging on theCUT OFF – BASE Year:

IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% 1990EU : 20% - 30% 2000?US : 17% 2005Japan : 25% 1990

ISSUES INVOLVED

• Total emissions – per capita emissions

bogey

India and China among the top five emitters – total emissions

total emissions today

Copenhagen Discord

Copenhagen Discord

28

Role of Civil Society Today?

Role of Civil Society

• Significant Role in the run-up to Kyoto

CAN

CSE

• Then commercial interests took over

The Corporation!It is an entity!

It has the rights of an individual

The buck stops with this entity

But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities

Role of Civil Society

As a result today there is a divide:

International NGOs vs Third World NGOs

Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots

beyond Marx and Capitalism

• poverty and oppression are issues of power

• poverty is technology and finance gone haywire

• development causes poverty

IMPLICATIONS• Inequity is growing as theRe-define development:

Traditionally, Development = growth + equity + social justice.

trickle down theory has failed

Percent income

Richest 25% Middle 50% Poorest 25%

1860 58% 30% 12%

1913 69% 25% 6%

1960 72% 25% 3%

Richest 20% Middle 60% Poorest 20%

2000 74% 24% 2%

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Change

The overthrow of oppressive, exploitative structures

Structural AdjustmentAdjusting to reality, pragmatic programmesManaging problems – transfer of technology, knowhow

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformation

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformationeconomic, cultural, social,

political and spiritual institutions

that reflect thevoices and power of the marginalized

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformation

• we have myriads of initiatives and experiments across the country, sub-continet, the world

• they are isolated, random, dispersed

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformation

• we need a myriad democratised intermediary level institutions that link these initiatives

• Focus on entitlements and capabilities

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformation• democracy is the answer to poverty and

scarcity

China is no model – it is an extreme imitation of all that has gone wrong with the west

• democracy is giving voice and action to the marginalized

DecentralisationLayers of Autonomy

local, regional, national, (international)

based on Entitlements and Capabilities

Implies recognition of

local traditions - knowledge, technology skills, culture, …

democratization of science, technology and finance

neither only bottom-up; or top down

beyond Marx and Capitalism

Structural Transformation

• in structural transformation – the independent, autonomous quest for alternatives it’s a subversive function – satyagraha

Our participation in

Structural Transformation

We are part of the problemurban

high transaction costs

excessive mobility

high consumption

conduits of the top-down approach

We can be part of the solutiondealing with our own carbon footprint

respect for the dignity of local capabilities

be the intersection facilitating the cross flow of information, knowledge and other resources

urban resource: decentralised, democratised

beyond Marx and CapitalismLearning from Gandhi

• Gandhi's voluntarism was a major shift in voluntarism practiced in traditional Indian society.

• It emphasized empowerment and transformation of society and acquired a political content.

• However, these voluntary initiatives had none of the organizational characters to classify them as modern.

Structural Transformation

let us be part of the Solutionwith

conviction

commitment

and compassion

This is true satyagraha

Thank You