Climate Communication in Context Stephan Lewandowsky University of Bristol and University of Western Australia [email protected] @STWorg Salzburg, 25 September 2017
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Climate Communication in Context
Stephan LewandowskyUniversity of Bristol and University of Western Australia
@STWorg
Salzburg, 25 September 2017
• Communication of climate change requires
– knowledge of climate change
– knowledge of society
• Strength of scientific consensus
• Strength and techniques of opposition
2
How to communicate climate change
• Communication of climate change requires
– knowledge of climate change
– knowledge of society
• Strength of scientific consensus
• Strength and techniques of opposition
3
How to communicate climate change
Would you Eat These Oysters?
4
• 97 out of 100 microbiologists,
after independent tests, recommend against eating these oysters because they are contaminated
• 2 out of 100 are unsure• 1 says they are safe
Scientific Consensus
• The climate is changing.
• Humans are causing it.
• It’s a problem.
97.1%agreement
in climate
literature
97.5%agreement
among climate
scientists
Consensus on Consensus
6
Notwithstanding the Consensus
Oklahoma State Capitol“With all the hysteria, all the fear, all the phony science, could it be that manmade global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? I believe it is.”
—U.S. Senator James InhofeCongressional Record, 2003
• Communication of climate change requires
– knowledge of climate change
– knowledge of society
• Strength of scientific consensus
• Strength and techniques of opposition
8
How to communicate climate change
Asymmetric Attitudes to Science
• In laboratory experiments with synthetic scenarios:
– no clear cognitive differences between people with different worldviews or political leanings
• In surveys involving actual scientific issues:
– rejection seems centered on political right
– no evidence of symmetry
– no evidence of science rejection by political left
• Vaccinations (Hamilton, Lewandowsky)
• Genetically Modified Organisms (Lewandowsky, Hamilton)
• HIV-AIDS (Lewandowsky)• Tobacco-lung cancer
(Lewandowsky)
Worldview and Climate Science(e.g., Lewandowsky et al., 2013)
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2
-1
0
1
2
Free Market
Clim
ate
r = -.70
Alternative Realities
Some People are Receptive to Contrarian Messages
12
• “… official climate models got their predictions so hopelessly wrong …. [in 2007] none of them predicted a temporary fall in global temperatures of 0.7 degrees, equal to their entire net rise in the 20th century…”
Christopher Booker, 22 October 2016
“fall of 0.7 degrees”
0.7C
January 2007 – January 2008
Sea Level Rise
Blind Test With Economists and Statisticians
• 6 different scenarios involving various climate indicators
– contrarian statements sampled from media and online sources
– Google search reveals high prevalence on contrarian blogs
– Hence statements not cherry-picked
– mainstream scientific statements checked by climate experts
Lewandowsky, Ballard, Oberauer, & Benestad (2016).
Sample Trial
Combine items into correctness score
Statisticians
Misleading contrarian interpretations reduce people’s acceptance of
climate science(Ranney & Clark, 2016; McCright et al., 2016)
False Media Balance
(nearly 1,000 media articles; Brüggemann & Engesser, 2017)
Public Perception of Consensus
“Balance as bias” media coverage
• Communication of climate change requires
– knowledge of climate change
– knowledge of society
• Strength of scientific consensus
• Strength and techniques of opposition
27
How to communicate climate change
Knowledge of Consensus is “Gateway Belief”
28
Communicating Consensus
29
Suspicion and Inoculation
• Research shows that correction is effective if people are:
– provided with an alternative
– skeptical of a source
– suspicious of motives underlying initial information
• Research shows that misinformation finds less traction
– if people are warned or inoculated
30
97.1%agreement
in climate
literature
97.5%agreement
among climate
scientists
Inoculation (Cook, Lewandowsky, & Ecker, 2017)
31
Information about the tobacco industry’s use of “fake experts” to generate appearance of a debate when there was none
Inoculation (Cook, Lewandowsky, & Ecker, 2017)
Inoculation messages
neutralized effects of ‘false balance’
32
Summary of Interventions
33
35
Rhetorical Symmetry Does Not Imply Substantive Symmetry
• Not all opinions deserve to be balanced
• No, you are not entitled to your opinion….
• …. unless it is supported by fact, evidence, or argument
36
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