Climate Change as a Driver in Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Eastern Washington Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment Conference Seattle, Washington February 12, 2009 Elaine E. Oneil 1 , Jeffrey A. Hicke 2 , Donald McKenzie 3 , and James A. Lutz 1 1 College of Forest Resources, University of Washington 2 Department of Geography, University of Idaho 3 Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, U.S. Forest Service
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Climate Change as a Driver in Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Eastern Washington Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment Conference Seattle,
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Climate Change as a Driver in Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Eastern
Washington
Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment Conference
Seattle, WashingtonFebruary 12, 2009
Elaine E. Oneil1, Jeffrey A. Hicke2, Donald McKenzie3, and James A. Lutz1
1College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
2Department of Geography, University of Idaho3Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, U.S. Forest
Service
J. Hicke
Photo credit: Don Hanley
Photo credit: Don Hanley
MPB and host as co-drivers of MPB epidemics with climate change
Host Susceptibility a function of changes in summer VPD Linked to the likelihood of a tree, or stand, being attacked
as a function of poor vigor. Warmer and drier summers leading to increased moisture stress and
reduced vigor within pine forests Warmer and/or drier winters reducing snowpack and effective moisture
retention into late spring/early summer
Risk of MPB attack linked to changes in annual temperature regimes Linked to the likelihood of MPB attack as a function of MPB
population dynamics and proximity to host trees Climate change enhancing insect survival and reproduction at higher
elevations and leading to asynchronous development at lower elevations
Acres affected by Mountain Pine Beetle in Washington State
Adapted from: DeLucia, E. H., H. Maherali, et al. (2000). "Climate-driven changes in biomass allocation in pines." Global Change Biology 6(5): 587-593.
Leaf/sapwood area relationships for pine species
Average Summer VPD
MPB and host as co-drivers of MPB epidemics with climate change
Host Susceptibility a function of changes in summer VPD Linked to the likelihood of a tree, or stand, being attacked
as a function of poor vigor. Warmer and drier summers leading to increased moisture stress and
reduced vigor within pine forests Warmer and/or drier winters reducing snowpack and effective moisture
retention into late spring/early summer
Risk of MPB attack linked to changes in annual temperature regimes Linked to the likelihood of MPB attack as a function of MPB
population dynamics and proximity to host trees Climate change enhancing insect survival and reproduction at higher
elevations and leading to asynchronous development at lower elevations
Research Questions • Do Tmax and Tmin increase in lock step?
– future VPD’s are likely underestimated
• Improve predictions of Tdew in increasingly arid environments– future VPD’s are likely underestimated.
• Determine if, and how quickly, leaf area – sapwood area ratios might change in response to changing VPD – Keys into increasing vulnerability to MPB and likelihood
of loss of the species altogether
• Will other phenotypes/genotypes of MPB invade low elevation sites
Blue Print for Management Action
Determine a stress index for lodgepole in their current niches
Refine estimates of future stress based on climate scenarios
Determine if LP can modify its LA/SA ratios in response to the change in VPD (aka research)
Determine how stand carrying capacity changes in response to climate shifts and manage stands to stay within the carrying capacity of the site
• Determine how habitat types will move and change in their constituency with climate change
• Determine how to model that change to increase forest ecosystem resilience