Climate change and your cup of coffee

Climate Change: a threat to coffee small-holders and our morning cup of coffee?

Jeremy Haggar, Natural Resource Institute, UK

Coffee and climate change in the news

Temperature change for Atitlan, Guatemala:

Note the 1oC rise is equivalent to 150m in altitude or

the difference between a normal good coffee and a gourmet coffee

Mean Temperature(°C) for the Months May-October Lat 15N Lon 91W (Guatemala)

-0.80-0.60-0.40-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40

1960 1970 1980 1990

Year

Dev

iati

on

fro

m a

vera

ge

61-9

0

Average = 25.84 °C

Std. Dev.= ± 0.31 °C

What do coffee producers say is happening?

The majority of coffee farmers considered that the climate has changed, with more hot days, changes in the rainfall patterns becoming more unpredictable with rainfall erratic and in general no rainfall.

This had led to a decline in yields, and more pests and diseases. Many farmers were introducing more shade to the coffee plantations, but some were reducing the area in coffee.

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

50

Rainfall isnormal

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rainfall hassubstantially

changed

Brazil Tanzania Uganda/CI Kenya Guatemala Vietnam

Impact of Hurricane Stan in Guatemala 2005-La Niña

20% coffee harvest lost on Pacific slope of Guatemala

Lost production from coops estimated at $4 million

Greater climate variability is what most producers are currently experiencing - national production vs rainfall in Nicaragua

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Rai

nfa

ll m

m /

100

0s s

acks

of

coff

ee

Production

Rainfall

Average rain1971-2000

El NiñoLa Niña

El Niño

La Niña

Economic impact of production variations on small producers in Nicaragua

2005-06 2006-07100lb sacks green coffee 41 17.5US$ income 3310 1424Production cost US$ 930 771Net income US$ 2380 653Average farm size 2 ha of coffee

Once again farmers are falling into debt,cannot afford to send their kids to school,nor renovate their coffee plantations

The climate change predictions for coffee regions

- Central America much drier

- Colombia, S Brazil wetter

- East Africa wetter?

- SE Asia more seasonal

Brazil – Large changes in distribution of coffee

Source: Pinto, Assad

Expected Changes for Coffee in Brazil

Estimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of Sao Paulo, relative to values from 2003:

Estimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of Minas Gerais, relative to values from 2003

Projections for Kenya CIAT 2010 Temperature rise of 2.2 – 2.4oC by 2050 Rainfall increase of 135 – 205 mm by 2050

Current 2050

Lower altitudinal limit masl 1000 1400

Upper altitudinal limit masl 2100 2300

Changes coffee suitability in Kenya (CIAT for Sangana PPP)

Green increase in suitability Orange-red loss of suitability for coffee

Current and future coffee production suitability by altitude for Nicaragua

Analysis of vulnerability to climate change of small-holders

CIAT/CATIE

What may happen to coffee in Central America

Likely consequences

Elimination of low-altitude coffee also eliminate environmental services from shaded coffee

Expansion of coffee at high altitude will compete with forest and conservation of water resources

Does coffee production also contribute to climate change?

Of 59g CO2 emissions per cup, PCF-Tchibo study44% from agrochemicals on-farmMethods do not contemplate sinks e.g. shade trees

Can we unlock the carbon stocks in shaded coffee and applying them to the carbon footprint of a cup of coffee

Can we make coffee carbon neutral?

36 - 70 t C / ha

Comparison of carbon footprint vs. C sequestered in 9 years

Coffee Carbon Footprinting

3. What are our options to adapt to climate change?

More efficient use of water ?

Some areas may introduce irrigation but in others water for irrigation will become limiting

Need to intensify reduction in water use and management of contamination from wet milling

Developing more resilient production systemsGradual renovation of the

coffee plantationDeveloping appropriate shade

levels and typesBuilding soil fertilitySoil and water conservation Diversifying income

Past-future yield variation

0

200

400

600

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

lbs

gre

en

co

ffe

e p

er

ac

re

The benefits of shade Shaded coffee landscapes less

vulnerable to effects of excess rainfall and landslides

Introduction or increase in shade at high altitudes

But there are limits to what shade can do

Potential of new coffee varieties

New hybrids between traditional varieties and Ethiopian landraces (CIRAD/PROMECAFE/CATIE):

Possibly greater resistance Increased cup quality at lower

to drought altitudes/higher temperatures

Chemical (cup) characteristics of hybrids are less sensitive to altitude (temperature) than traditional varieties

Bertrand 2006

Support to producers…

Develop examples with pilot groups to reinforce their capacity to confront the impacts of climate change

Improve their access to technical and financial mechanisms

www.AdapCC.org

Expected Results…

Detailed information about the climate impacts and risks to coffee production

Joint vision of the measures to confront risks

Methods to identify adaptation strategies

Options for long term financial security

Network of institutions and producers to exchange experiences

Other industry initiatives to combat climate change

Climate friendly standards

Rainforest Alliance and 4C climate modules

Develop climate adaptation and mitigation plans

Reduce GHG emissions Sustainable production

practices for resilience Preparedness for natural

disasters

PPP GIZ, Neumann Coffee Group, Tchibo etc

Invest in adaptation capacity in Guatemala, Brazil, Tanzania and Vietnam

Coffee Under Pressure Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, CRS, CIAT

Model of impacts and diversification options

Socioeconomic livelihoods and institutional adaptation capacity

And what for our 3 coffees?Guatemala Direct trade Produced by Mam ethnic group in Hueheutenango Union Coffee roasters – one of UK speciality coffee companies Very high altitude production may even expand with climate

change

And what for our 3 coffees?Kenyan Fairtrade African countries continue to

loose coffee producers Considerable need to invest in

production and organization for better market access – so Fairtrade is critical

With climate change highest altitude prooducers will survive but lower altitude leave production

Buyers say Kenyan coffee is loosing it’s distinctive blackcurrant flavour – so the coffee may not be the same

And what for our 3 coffees?Brazilian Naturals Vast majority of coffee beans

processed via dry method

Coffee is produced under sun without shade trees highly technified with mechanical harvesting

Major component of most Italian style coffee blends e.g. LavAzza

Major shift in coffee producing areas moving south

And humanities capacity to adapt