Climate Change and the Work of the IPCC · 2017. 8. 30. · What is the IPCC • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the World Climate Organization (WMO)

Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Climate Change and

the Work of the IPCCIPCC Open Symposium:

Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - A Basis of Climate Actions

Taka Hiraishi (IPCC TFI Co-chair)

(IPCC 33, Abu Dhabi)

What is the IPCC

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the World Climate Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1998. Its members are those of WMO and UNEP.

• The main IPCC products are Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Methodology Reports and Technical Papers. They reflect the state-of-the-art understanding of the subject matter and are written so that they are comprehensible to the non-specialist.

• IPCC’s report production process contains two review steps to reflect a wide range scientific views, and IPCC always tries to be “POLICY-RELEVANT” and “POLICY-NON-PRESCRIPTIVE”.

(Switzerland) (USA) (Germany) (Japan)

Organisation of IPCC

In addition to the small secretariat in Geneva, there are 4 Technical Support Units .

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IPCC Writing and Review Process

IPCC

IPCC Reports are compiled through diligent PEER REVIEWS, and thus they are not only the views of the small number of the authors.

First Assessment Reports (1990)

WG-IEmissions from human activities

increase substantially GHG concentrations

This results in additional warming

0.3oC per decade

SLR 6 cm per decade

WG-IIAssessed impacts on main sectors

Uncertainties with regard to timing, magnitude and regional patters

Impacts felt most severely in regions under stress

WG-IIISectoral subgroups on adaptive and mitigative response options

Flexible approach of shorter term and more intensive action over the longer term

Draft Convention text

Special committee on participation of developing countriesIPCC

Second Assessment Reports (1995)

WG-IIClimate change adds new stressMost systems are sensitive Impacts difficult to quantify Successful adaptation depends on technology, institutions, finance and informationVulnerability increases as adaptive capacity decreasesDetection difficult, unexpected changes possible

WG-IGHG concentrations continued to increaseAerosols produce negative radiative forcing Climate has changed over the past century Balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate Climate change expected to continue

WG-IIIPortfolio of mitigation, adaptation, knowledge improvement

Earlier mitigation increases flexibility in moving towards stabilization

Significant "no-regrets" opportunities

Risk of damage and precautionary principle provide rationales for action beyond no-regrets

IPCC

Third Assessment Report (2001)

WG-IConfidence in ability of models to project future climate has increased

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities Emissions of GHGs and aerosols continue to alter the atmosphereTemperature and sea level expected to riseAtmospheric climate change will persist for many centuries

WG-IIRecent regional climate changes affected many physical and biological systems Preliminary indications that human systems have been affectedNatural systems are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damagedMany human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerableProjected changes in climate extremes could have major consequencesRisks for large scale and possibly irreversible impacts need to be quantifiedAdaptation necessary to complement mitigationThose with least resources are most vulnerableAdaptation, sustainable development and equity mutually reinforcing

WG IIIPortfolio of mitigation, technology development and reduction of scientific uncertainty increases flexibility in moving towards stabilizationAlternative development paths result in different greenhouse gas emissionsClimate change mitigation affected by and have impacts on development, sustainability and equitySignificant tech. progress, faster than anticipatedForests, agricultural lands offer significant, not necessarily permanent mitigation potential550ppmv, 450ppmv or below over the next 100 possible with known technological options Limitations possible at no or negative social costsIntegration with non-climate policy objectives

IPCC

IPCC Special Reports

LUCF (2000)

Emission Scenarios(2000)

Technology Transfer (2000)

CO2 Capture and Storage (2005)

Ozone Layer (2005)

Aviation (1999)

Regional Impacts (1997)

Renewable Energy (2011)

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports (AR4)

• WG-I: “The Physical Science Basis” (February 2007)

• WG-II: "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" (April 2007)

• WG-III: "Mitigation of Climate Change"(May 2007)

AR4 Synthesis (November 2007)

Two important lines of AR4

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.

• Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.

Change of GHGs from Ice-Core and Modern Data

• The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. ..

• The global atmospheric concentration of methane has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in the early 1990s, and was 1774 ppb in 2005. ..

• The global atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005. ..

Observations:

Temperature, Sea level and snow cover

Global and Continental Temperature Change

Global SurfaceTemperature Projection

Projected warming and Sea Level Rise

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Projections of Surface Temperatures

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Table SPM-1Illustrative examples of global impacts projected for climate changes (and sea-level and atmospheric carbon dioxide where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase in global average surface temperature in the 21st century. [T20.7] The black lines link impacts, dotted arrows indicate impacts continuing with increasing temperature. Entries are placed so that the left hand side of text indicates approximate onset of a given impact. Quantitative entries for water scarcity and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change relative to the conditions projected across the range of SRES scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 (see Endbox 3). Adaptation to climate change is not included in these estimations. All entries are from published studies recorded in the chapters of the Assessment. Sources are given in the right hand column of the Table. Confidence levels for all statements are high.

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Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century (Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.5).

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emission scenarios.

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Figure SPM-1Locations of significant changes in observations of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies.

These met the following criteria: (1) Ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which ~70 are new since the Third Assessment) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes (NAM, …, PR) do not add up to the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related to Marine and Freshwater (MFR) systems. [F1.8, F1.9; Working Group I Fourth Assessment F3.9b]

IPCC AR4 WG-III Chapt.13. Page 776

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2007 Nobel Peace Prize!• Oslo, 10 December 2007 –• The Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. were awarded of the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

AR5 process has started, and will be completed inSeptember 2013 - October 2014

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (NGGIP)<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/>

IPCC Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/>

IPCC - NGGIP Products(1)“1995” and “Revised 1996” IPCC Guidelines for National

Greenhouse Gas Inventories<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm>

(cf. COP Decisions 4/CP.1, 9/CP.2, 2/CP.3 & 17/CP.8)

Volume 1Reporting

Instructions

Volume 2Workbook

+IPCC Software

Volume 3ReferenceManual

IPCC NGGIP Products (2)IPPC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty

Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/> (All UN language versions)

Published in 2000Endorsed by SBSTA12 (June 2000)Require its use by Annex-I Parties -“should”.

For Non-Annex-I Parties, Dec.17/CP.8 encourages its use.

Complements the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines

Background Papers: IPCC Expert Meeting on Good Practice Guidance and

Uncertainty Management in National GHG Inventories

Published in late 2002

<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/gpg-bgp.htm>

IPCC NGGIP Products (3)IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, 2003<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm>

- Actions by SBSTA at 19th, 20th, 21st sessions and Dec. 13/CP.9 (General) and Dec. 15/CP.10 (Art 3.3/3.4)

Complements the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines.

GPG-LULUCF provides supplementary methods and good practice guidance for estimating,

measuring, monitoring and reporting on carbon stock changes

and greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF activities under Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4, and Articles 6

and 12 of the Kyoto Protocol.

Recent Output of the NGGIP

2006 IPCC Inventory Guidelines, (2,000 pages, 10 Kgs. Adopted by IPCC 26 (Mauritius, April 2006)

• Revision of the Revised 1996GLs was completed in April 2006. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.htm

• UNFCCC SBSTA is considering its implementation – for Annex-I Parties

Thank you for your attention!