Climate Change and the Threat to National Security

Climate Change and National Security

American Security Project

INTRODUCTION: THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The Earth is Warming

Changes in global surface temperatures since 1880

The Earth is Warming

Average Surface Temperature by decade since the 1880s

The Climate has always changed…

10,000 Years of Stability

Global Temperature Changes Since 10,000 BC5

We are no longer stable

Global Temperature Changes the last 2000 years

So- why is the Temperature Increasing?

So- why is the Temperature Increasing?

Increasing Concentrations of CO2

The Science is Definitive

Objections are Political, not Scientific

Result of Increasing Concentration of CO2:

Global Warming

The Threats of Climate Change

The Military Worries about the Threats of Climate Change

“The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world.”

The Military Worries about the Threats of Climate Change “A changing climate will have

real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions.”• Increased humanitarian

assistance and disaster relief • Installations vulnerable to

rising sea levels • Droughts and wildfires

threaten training activities• Supply chains could be

threatened• Ensuring equipment works

under more extreme weather conditions

Militaries Around the World Worry About the Threat of Climate Change

Why Does the Military Worry About Climate Change?

• “Accelerant of Instability”

• “Threat Multiplier”

• New “Hot Spots” for Instability

Global “Hot Spots”

• A global issue that will be felt at the regional level.

• How these local changes in weather and climate affect security in each region will depend on local responses.

Hot Spots: South Asia

Hot Spots: The Pacific

Hot Spots: The Middle East

Fuel and Water are central to Mideast Operations


The Key Dams of Iraq – If you control water in the Middle East, you control the government.


The Syria and Iraqi Drought, 2006-2010

Hot Spots: Sub Saharan Africa

Hot Spots: The United States of America

Coastal Threats Extreme Weather


Military Bases Infrastructure


Energy Agriculture

The Military’s Solution: Risk Management

• There is no absolute certainty for climate predictions.

• But - the military does not wait until there is 100% certainty.

• On the battlefield, waiting for certainty means it is already too late.

Cheney’s “1% Doctrine”

Questions?

Climate Change and the Threat to National Security

Government & Nonprofit