Climate Change and the Philippines

Climate Change

and the Philippines

•Reviewing the Science

•Impacts on the Philippines

•Sound Responses

Reviewing the Science• Greenhouse warming makes earth habitable Without CO2, Earth’s mean temperature will be about -

18°C (no liquid water)

• Unprecedented rise in CO2 concentrations is causing global warming, environmental damage

Inconvenient Truth 1:IT’S OUR FAULT!

• Impact of human CO2 emissions now exceed natural influences on climate

Inconvenient Truth 2:IT’S WARMING UP!

• Climate forecasting tools work . . .

. . . and they predict a warmer planet

Inconvenient Truth 3:IT’S NOT JUST THE TEMPERATURE

Indicators of Global Warming:Heat waves, warm weatherOcean warming, sea level riseGlaciers meltingPolar warmingSpreading diseaseEarlier spring arrivalRange shifts and pop. changesCoral reef bleachingHeavy snowfalls, floodingDroughts and fires

Myths Busted!• Claim: It’s all a natural cycle – the sun,

volcanoes, etc.

• Facts:

-Sunlight has been steady, volcanoes emit just less than 1% of human GHG emissions

• Claim:

-The warming is local, not global, since weather stations that measure temperature are mostly found near cities

No correlationbetween level ofurbanization andobserved warming

What about the Philippines?

DEMOGRAPHIC

• Population: 76,504,077 as of 2000

• Population Density: 255 persons per square kilometer as of 2000

• Indigenous people: 8%

• Poverty Incidence Rating: 28.4% as of 2000

What about the Philippines?

ECONOMIC

Agricultural Sector

• 47% of the total land area of the Philippines is agricultural land

• 2/3 of the population depends on agriculture for livelihood

• ½ of the labor force is engaged in agricultural activities

What about the Philippines?

ECONOMIC

Fisheries Sector

• Comprises at least 5% of the Gross National Product

• Employs about one million fishermen and fish farmers, mostly in the rural areas

What about the Philippines?

ECONOMICTourism Sector• Anchor Destinations: Laoag-Vigan, Baguio-

Banaue, Manila, Subic-Clark, Palawan, Cebu, Bohol, Davao, Boracay

• Last 2004 the Philippines received 2.29 million visitors with a total receipt of $ 1.99 billion

• Projections show that the Philippines will receive 5 million visitors with a projected receipt of $4.59 billion by 2010

What about the Philippines?

ECOSYSTEM

• Total number of islands: 7,107 islands

• Total Land Area: 300,000 square kilometer

• Forest Cover: 7,168,400 hectares

• Coastal Area: 36,289 kilometer, roughly equivalent to the Earth’s circumference

• Coral Cover: 26,000 square kilometer, 2nd largest coral cover in the world

What about the Philippines?BIODIVERSITY• Terrestrial:• Plants: 9,253, 6,091 of which are endemic• Birds: 535 identified species, 186 of which are

endemic• Mammals: 167 identified species, 102 of which are

endemic• Reptiles: 237 identified species, 160 of which are

endemic• Amphibian: 89 identified species, 76 of which are

endemic

What about the Philippines?BIODIVERSITY

• Freshwater:

• Fishes: 281 identified species, 67 of which are endemic

• Marine:

• Reef fishes: 915 identified species

• Coral: At least 400 scleractinian coral species, 12 of which are endemic

• Mangrove: At least 30 species

What about the Philippines?

• Many well-known impacts of global warming (GW) are not applicable to RP

-Deadly heat waves are unlikely, no melting glaciers around

-Tropical, marine conditions tend to keep our weather and climate stable

• Our responses to climate change must be based on realistic scenarios and local needs

Climate Change and the Philippines

• Sea level rise

• Anomalies in (a) temperature, (b) rainfall and (c) tropical cyclone activity

• . . . Which then cause impacts on other sectors: agriculture, forests, water resources, health

Sea Level Rise in the Philippines

• indicates that a one-meter rise in sea level is projected to affect 64 out of 81 provinces, covering at least 703 out of 1,610 municipalities, and inundating almost 700 million square meters of land. The red mark indicates provinces that are at threat.

Cebu and Mactan Island

Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Zamboanga del Norte. A one meter rise in sea

level is projected to inundate 3,781.89 hectares in Zamboanga del Sur, 3,274.02 hectares in

Zamboanga Sibugay and 1,057.05 hectares in Zamboanga del Norte.

Camarines Sur, a one meter rise in sea level is projected to inundate 2,268 hectares of land. It has a population of at least 1,551,549 people.

A one meter rise in sea level is projected to inundate 6,428.16 hectares of land. It has a

population of at least 755,412 people from 81 cultural groups.

A one meter rise in sea level is projected to inundate 7,972.83 hectares of land. At least 90% of the land area

of the Municipality of Pata and 34% of the Municipality of Marunggas It has a population of at least 619,668 people

which includes the Badjaos of the Sulu seas .

Trends in Regional Surface Temperatures

• Nearly all non-urban stations in the region show a rise in mean temperatures between 1960 to 1998

-More hot days, warm nights, fewer cold days and nights

• Not enough to cause heat waves, but may affect agricultureIRRI (2004): Rice yields decline with higher nighttime temperatures

Trends in Tropical Cyclones• Typhoons need warm sea surface temperatures

(SSTs) to form; higher SSTs means more frequent, stronger storms

• Number of storms in the West Pacific has been increasing

• Rise in typhoon crossings is most pronounced over Visayas

Tragedies After Tragedies!• 1991 – Ormoc Flashlood (Region 8)

Triggered by unusually heavy and continuous rains brought about by Tropical Storm Uring

• 1999 – Cherry Hill Landslide (Region 4) Triggered by three consecutive days of persistent moderate to heavy rains

• 2000 – Payatas Garbage Slide (NCR) Triggered by continuous moderate to heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila

Tragedies After Tragedies!• 2001 – Baguio - La Trinidad Landslides

(CAR) Triggered by record breaking hour rainfall of 1,085.5 mm in Baguio City

• 2001 – Camuigin Flashflood (Region 10) Triggered by continuous light to moderate rains brought about by Typhoon Nanang

• 2003 – Southern Leyte - Surigao Disasters (Region 8) Triggered by record-breaking hour rainfall of 1,119.0 mm in Surigao and 699.0 mm in Leyte

Tragedies After Tragedies!• 2004 – Aurora – Infanta Floods (Regions 3, 4)

Triggered by 20 days of persistent moderate to heavy rains brought about by Typhoon Unding, Tropical Storm Violeta, Tropical Depression Winnie and Typhoon Yoyong which also affected Regions 1, 2, 5, CAR, NCR.

• 2006 – Guinsaugon, Leyte Landslide (Region 8) Triggered by five days of persistent moderate to heavy rains which is equivalent to almost three months of the area's average annual precipitation.

• 2006 – Legazpi Mudslide (Region 5) Triggered by persistent moderate to heavy rains brought by Super Typhoon Reming which also affected Regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, CAR, NCR.

Stronger Typhoons?• Effect of global warming on typhoon strength is

currently the subject of intense scientific debate -Other TC requirements: uniform winds along vertical, enough moisture throughout the troposphere

-Not clear how global warming will change these

• Skeptics: Observed rise in TC strength due to (i) better observations, or (ii) natural variation

• What is certain: Philippine populations are much more vulnerable to typhoons than before

Changes in RegionalRainfall Extremes, 1961 to 1998

• What this can mean: longer dry periods,

• but heavier rains during wet season

Change in the frequency of days with rain Change in the proportion of total annual rainfall contributed by heavy rain

NORMAL EL NINO LA NINA ALL YEARS

Changes in Mean AnnualRainfall over the Philippines

•Significant reduction over Northeastern Luzon•Significant increase over Western Visayas during La Niña•Under investigation: Change in the start of rainy season

Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate

Making a Bad Situation Worse

• Energy: Bulk of local power supply in RP comes from hydroelectricity

-Any decrease in rainfall means more reliance on imported coal and oil

• Agriculture–Less rain or too much rain means less harvest

–Changes in timing of rain also critical

–CO2 rise favors crops, but weeds like it more

–CO2 rise can enhance corn growth, but only in roots and stalk, not its edible parts

• Forests and Biodiversity–Moist forests will shrink, turn into dry forests prone to fires

–Global warming raises flood risk, worsening habitat degradation and species loss]

– However, human impact still much more damaging

• Health– Disease vectors (e.g. mosquitoes) will expand their range

– Displacement due to disasters will be a worsening human health issue

• Water Resources– Rainfall is decreasing over Luzon and parts of Mindanao where major dams are found

– Rainfall is increasing in the Visayas where there are no major dams

– Sea level rise may cause salinity intrusion; Laguna Lake at risk

• Marine Resources– Warmer temperatures can kill coral (as in

1998)

– Higher CO2 in atmosphere can disrupt carbonate chemistry, make shell and bone formation difficult

So What Should the Philippines Do?

Status of CO2 Capture and Storage Tech

• Capture technologies already feasible but . . .

• CO2 storage remains a challenge– Only industrial CO2 use is a mature market

– Geologic storage feasible only in oil fields

– Deep ocean storage: still in research

– Transport of captured CO2 to storage may just emit more CO2

• Not likely to be an option for the Philippines

Summary of 1994 RP Emissions

Energy49%

Waste7%

Agriculture33% Industry

11%

Summary of 1994 RP Emissions

SECTOR CO2 Emission

(103 tons)

Energy 50.0

Agriculture 33.1

Industry 10.6

Waste 7.1

TOTAL 100.8

Today: Emissions are about 60% higher due to growth

Where We Stand and What it Means

CO2 Emissions per Capita (tons)

CO2 Emission in 2002

• Even if the Philippines stops emitting CO2 there will be little effect on global warming

• We should reduce emissions for its other benefits: cleaner air, less oil dependence, cheaper energy

Actions Needed• Manage Risk

(Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability)– We can’t reduce the hazard, but we can lessen exposure and vulnerability by evacuating disaster-prone areas or enhancing preparedness

• Develop and promote new crops and farming technology

• Institute new insurance mechanisms– Spread out the risk

– Help victims recover

– Provide incentives (lower premiums) for improving preparation among vulnerable sectors

Keyword: Co-Benefits• Adaptation: Build new dams – for flood control,

irrigation, energy, water supply

• Mitigate CO2 as a co-benefit of– Energy efficiency

– Renewables (biomass, solar, wind):

Reduced dependence on foreign oil

– Clean mass transport: Improved air quality

• Find alternative livelihoods for people at risk– Reduce their vulnerability, reduce pressure on natural resources

Why not abandon imported fossil fuels, switch everything to local,

renewable energy?

• Fraction of energy sourced locally (56%) is already higher than in many industrial countries

• Renewable sources have become cheaper, but

– Are too site-selective

– Can’t supply energy on demand

• Renewable energy will get better

Cepalco (CDO), 1MW in 2-hectare lot

Ilocos Wind Power

Plant How Many Trees?

• Ateneo: 14,000 students emit 3500 tons/yr, 250 kg per student

• A tropical tree removes 8 kg per year of CO2 (or 8 tons per hectare)

– Old trees don’t count; trees must reach maturity

– Trees may be cut, but should NOT be burned nor allowed to rot

• Number of trees each student needs to plant:~ 31 trees per student

250 hectares to reforest

2 times the size of the campus

• To sequester current emissions: each Filipino should plant at least 100 trees per year

• What this means:

Planting trees enhance surroundings and habitats, but it will never be enough against climate change

Want to reduce youremissions? A Better Way!

• Solid Waste Management

-Reduce, Reuse and Recycle

-Segregate Waste

-Adopt a Street Project

-Zero Trash Burning

RecyclingRecycling one aluminum can saves enough energy to run a TV for three hours -- or the equivalent of a half a gallon of gasoline. It

takes 95% less energy to recycle aluminum than it does to make it from raw materials.

Recycle Steel "Tin" Cans - A 60-watt light bulb can be run for over a day on the amount of energy saved by recycling 1 pound of steel. In one year in the United States, the recycling of steel saves enough energy to heat and light 18,000,000 homes! It takes 60% less energy to recycle steel than it does to make it from raw materials.

Recycle Paper - Each ton (2000 pounds) of recycled paper can save 17 trees, 380 gallons of oil, three cubic yards of landfill space, 4000 kilowatts of energy, and 7000 gallons of water. This represents a 64% energy savings, a 58% water savings, and 60 pounds less of air pollution! The 17 trees saved can absorb a total of 250 pounds of carbon dioxide from the air each year. Burning that same ton of paper would create 1500 pounds of carbon dioxide. It takes 40% less energy to recycle newspaper than it does to make it from raw materials.

Recycle Plastic - Recycling plastic saves twice as much energy as burning it in an incinerator. It takes 70% less energy to recycle plastics than it does to make it from raw materials.

Recycle Glass - The energy saved from recycling one glass bottle can run a 100-watt light bulb for four hours. It also causes 20% less air pollution and 50% less water pollution than when a new bottle is made from raw materials. It takes 40% less energy to recycle glass than it does to make it from raw materials.

Reuse and/or Recycle Your Grocery Bags - When 1 ton of plastic bags is reused or recycled, the energy equivalent of 11 barrels of oil are saved.

Use a Reusable Cloth, Hemp or Mesh Shopping Bag - A sturdy, reusable bag needs only be used 11 times to have a lower environmental impact than using 11 disposable plastic bags

Buy Products with the Least Amount of Packaging - Reducing trash by purchasing products with minimal packaging saves 1000 pounds of carbon dioxide from entering our atmosphere.

Want to reduce youremissions? A Better Way!

EAT LESS MEAT!• Heller and Keolian (2000): Impact of meat

eating is nearly the same as driving a car

• Philippine 1990 livestock production emitted 10,000 tons of CO2 equivalent

-Equal to our industrial emissions, or 10 percent of our total

• Ecology 101: feeding a vegetarian uses 90 percent less land than a meat eater

• Impacts on many sectors are currently unclear, but may become more pronounced as warming continues

• Science needed: Focus on understanding, adaptation and preparation

• Old hard lessons: save energy, walk, eat more veggies; reach out to the grassroots

• Filipinos should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but for the right reasons

Final Notes