Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?

Climate Change and the Economic Crisis:Is prosperity possible without growth?

Dr. Peter A. Victor

26 March 2010

LowGrowCanada

Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?

LowGrowCanada

You bet!

‘Business as usual’

GDP per Capita

GHG Emissions

Poverty

UnemploymentDebt to GDP Ratio

A low/no growth scenarioHow?• Macro demand and supply stabilized

(stable population and labour force)• Carbon price• Shorter work year• More generous anti-poverty programs

GDP per Capita

GHG EmissionsUnemployment

Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio

Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario

1. Maximum sustainable global GDP:– GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity– Larger if carbon footprint reduced

2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita:– Allow for increase in population

3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita:– Some multiple of average GDP/capita

4. LowGrow simulation for Canada

Global biocapacity

Global ecological footprint

Carbon footprint

Global biocapacity

Global ecological footprint

Carbon footprintCarbon footprintfor ecological footprint = biocapacity

[1963]

[1995]

[1976]

[2004]

[1976]

Poverty

Unemployment

GHG Emissions

Debt to GDP Ratio

GDP per Capita

A Canadian degrowth scenario

The scenarios compared: growth drivers

The scenarios compared: growth drivers

Conclusions1. Simulations suggest that ‘prosperity’ does not require

GDP growth

2. Depends on level of ‘sustainable’ income which inpart depends on response to climate crisis

3. Changes in the economic system require clarification