CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY Elizabeth Marshall, USDA, Economic Research Service Keith Weller Keith Weller B r u c e F r i t z Photos courtesy of USDA/ARS The views expressed are the author’s and should not be attributed to ERS or USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2012
Bruce Fritz. Keith Weller. Elizabeth Marshall, USDA, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and the Agricultural Economy. Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24 , 2012. Keith Weller. Photos courtesy of USDA/ARS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
Elizabeth Marshall, USDA, Economic Research Service
Keith
Wel
ler
Kei
th W
elle
r
Bruce Fritz
Photos courtesy of USDA/ARS
The views expressed are the author’s and should not be attributed to ERS or USDA
Agricultural Outlook ForumFebruary 24, 2012
AGRICULTURE & ADAPTATION
Plant Systems
Cropping Systems
Farming Systems
International MarketsDomestic Markets
Agroecosystems
Photos courtesy of USDA/ARS, USDA/AMS, USDA/FAS
Keith
Wel
ler
Photo supplied by Geovantage, Inc.
Scot
t Bau
er
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT Economic impact estimates are
sensitive to a number of research elements: Scope of the Assessment
Adaptation Opportunities and Constraints Climate and Yield Projections (and
associated time horizon) Methodology Used, Model
Specification
SCOPE: ADAPTATION OPTIONSFARM PRODUCTION PRACTICES Diversify crop and livestock types and varieties Change the intensification of production Use alternative fallow and tillage practices Implement irrigation practices Change timing of farm operations
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS Develop new crop varieties Develop early warning systems that provide daily
weather predictions and seasonal forecasts Develop water management innovations Develop farm-level resource management innovations
FARM FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Purchase crop insurance to reduce the risks of climate-
related income loss Invest in crop shares and futures to reduce the risks of
climate-related income loss Diversify source of household income
Map courtesy of NOAA
Photos courtesy of NRCS/Lynn Betts
Source: Adapted from Smit and Skinner, 2002
SCOPE: ADAPTATION CONSTRAINTS
Photos courtesy of USDA/ARS
Doug
Wils
on
Scot
t Bau
er
Jack
Dyk
inga
SCOPE: TRADE EFFECTS
Source: UNCTAD
Photo courtesy of USDA/ARS, Doug WilsonTrade Flows for Corn
CLIMATE AND YIELD PROJECTIONS Several studies have underlying yield assumptions
broadly consistent with the IPCC (2007) findings: “moderate climate change will likely increase yields of
North American rain-fed agriculture” Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid-
to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1 to 3°C, and then decrease beyond that.