IIM Ahmedabad Climate Change and Sustainable Development The Case of India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad Presentation for the International Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development November 19-20, 2002, Seoul, Korea
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IIM Ahmedabad
Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentThe Case of India
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Presentation for theInternational Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
November 19-20, 2002, Seoul, Korea
IIM Ahmedabad
Presentation Agenda
• Climate Change and India: Status
• Future Emissions Trends
• South Asia Regional CooperationEnergy and Electricity MarketsImpacts and Vulnerability
• Linking Climate Policies with Development Goals
• COP 8 - The Delhi Ministerial Declaration
• Kyoto and Beyond
IIM Ahmedabad
Climate Change and India:Emissions Status
IIM Ahmedabad
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Index (1975=100)
E lectricity
E n ergy
C arb on
G D P
GDP, Energy, Electricity, Carbon
IIM Ahmedabad
GDP Intensity of Energy,Electricity and Carbon
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Intenstity Index (1975=1)
E lectricity
C arb on
E n ergy
IIM Ahmedabad
GHG Emissions
Emissions 1990 2000 CAGR
Carbon 162 (58%) 253 (65%) 4.56
Methane 17.1 (36%) 19.5 (29%) 1.32
N2O 0.21 (6%) 0.28 (6%) 2.92
CO2 equivalent 1017 1424 3.42
IIM Ahmedabad
Decoupling Carbon and Energy: Policy Measures
• Energy Efficiency and Conservation
• Renewable Energy
• Vehicle Efficiency and Transport Fuel Improvements
• Electricity Reforms
• Forestry and Land Restoration
IIM Ahmedabad
Carbon Mitigation(1900-200)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Car
bon
(MT
)
Energy Con (Supply)
Energy Con (Demand-side)
Gas Flaring
Biogas
Stove
Renewable Power
111 Million ton Carbon Mitigation from 1990 - 2000
• Common but Differentiated Responsibilities• High Priority to Adaptation• Technology Transfer
Energy, Transport, Industry, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity,Forestry, Water Management
• Access to Clean Energy Services• Diversified Energy Supply (Clean/ Renewable)
IIM Ahmedabad
Kyoto and Beyond
IIM Ahmedabad
Kyoto and BeyondMitigation Regime
Policies and MeasuresCommitment (Targets, Time Tables, Timing, Allocation)Extended CDM regimeNon-Binding TargetsWhat is “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?Resource Sharing versus Burden Sharing
• Impacts and AdaptationPrevention / InsuranceFuture socioeconomic scenarios
• Technology and Financial Transfers
• Institutions
• Capacity building
IIM Ahmedabad
Conclusions• Despite no commitments, India mitigated 111 MT carbon in
last decade and shifted 2002 baseline by 7%
• Development of regional energy, electricity and water marketswould reduce electricity costs, lower emissions and promotesustainable development
• Early signal about post-Kyoto mitigation regime are critical forstrategic shift in future emissions baseline
• Concentrations stabilization regime shall significantly impactsub-continent’s energy system
• Beyond national sustainable development policies, theemissions mitigation and adaptation policies will have to becrafted for own sake