Climate change and public health

ASTHO: Climate Change and Public HealthFebruary 19, 2008

Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

and SARS

Physical and Environmental

Factors including Climate

Ecological Factors

Humans

Wildlife

Animals

E I D

Social, Political, and Economic

Factors

Genetic and Biological Factors

Convergence Model

Infectious Disease EcologyAccelerating prevention, control, & elimination

of ecology-mediated microbial threats

• Systems approach with cross-cutting themes

• Global approach

Animal Health Human Health

Ecosystem Health

PresentMammals

Natural Earth Cycles and Wobbles

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Changes in temperature, sea level and northern hemisphere snow cover

Direct observations of recent climate change (IPCC, 2007)

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health*

Food

Coastal flooding

Infectious Dx

Air Quality

Heat

Civil conflict

Climate change effects:•Temperature•Sea level•Precipitation•Extreme events

Malnutrition

Displacement

Morbidity/mortality

Respiratory diseases

Direct effects

Morbidity/mortality/displacement

DroughtWater

* Excludes major impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems

Equity

Some regions will be more affected than others:– The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)

– Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)

– Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)

– Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)

Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:– Coral reefs, marine shell organisms

– Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions

– 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change

• Incomplete knowledge and few long-term studies

• Ecological cycles are complex and vary between regions

• Many confounding factors of human origin– Land-use patterns– agricultural and industrial development– water management– cultural and behavioral factors, etc.

• Many global changes appear to be occurring (Sutherst 2004 and others)

– Climate– Atmospheric composition– Urbanization– Land use, landcover, and biodiversity– Trade and travel– Civil unrest and unstable governments– Other factors

• Global climate change likely to present emerging disease threats

Assessing effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases

Source: Data from Chan et al. 1999; Figure in Gubler et al. 2001

Public Health Response to Climate Change

• Modeling and long-term ecological and epidemiological research on influence of environmental changes on disease cycles• Strengthen public health infrastructure to improve

measures to reduce the spread of disease or disease

vectors and hosts

• Enhanced surveillance

- Human cases in previously disease-free areas

-Introduction of new vectors, hosts, or pathogens

-Changing transmission patterns recognition and response

- Identify potential vulnerable populations

•Preparedness: Review, evaluate and prepare countermeasures (vaccines, therapeutic agents, insecticides, etc.)

•Training & Education: PH workforce

Key technologies to reduce emissions

• Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower,solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage

• More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels;modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

• Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available

Buildings

Transportation

Energy Supply

Key policies to reduce emissions

• Appropriate incentives for development of technologies

• Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns, especially in building, transport and industrial sectors

• Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes

• Appropriate energy infrastructure investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions