Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy Are we being Fair? Sunday 7 th May 2006 Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv HSBC Director.

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energyAre we being Fair?

Sunday 7th May 2006

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental SciencesLay Chairman, Norwich East DeaneryCRed

• In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of

5kW

• In USA it is 10 kW

1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy

• In Europe it is 5.7 kW

• Globally it is around 2kW

• ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

• This series will look at the Environment, Climate Change and Global Warming.– Is it natural– It is man made– What can be done about it?

• Today’s talk will review Climate Change and then examine the history of energy use.

• Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices facing us

• Then: what can we do about it?• what should we as Christians do about it?

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental SciencesLay Chairman, Norwich East DeaneryCRed

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

0 1000 1500 2000 2500500

Year

En

ergy

Con

sum

pti

on

Nuclear Fusion ??

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

We are currently using our resources unsustainably and unfairly

Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predictedIs Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasawww.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years20031979

CRed

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

In 1974 Bramber Parish Council decided to go without street lighting for three days as a saving.

( this was during a critical power period during a Miner’s Strike).

Afterwards, the parish treasurer was pleased to announce that, as a result electricity to the value of £11.59 had been saved.

He added, however, that there was a bill of £18.48 for switching the electricity off and another of £12.00 for switching it on again.

It had cost the council £18.89 to spend three days in darkness.

An example of where saving resources and money are not the same

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

From the Independent

29th January 1996

similar warning have been issued in technical press for this winter

What is wrong with this title?

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

• No shortage of energy on the planet

• Potential shortage of energy in the form to which we have become accustomed.

Fossil fuels

• FUEL CRISIS.

THE ENERGY CRISIS - The Non-Existent Crisis

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

• ~ 15% of energy derived from food used to collect more food to sustain life.

+ energy used for

making clothing, tools, shelter• Early forms of non-human power:-

• 1) fire• 2) animal power

HISTORICAL USE OF ENERGY up to 1800

• OTHER ENERGY FORMS HARNESSED

1) Turnstile type windmills of Persians

2) Various water wheels (7000+ in UK by 1085)

3) Steam engines (?? 2nd century AD by Hero)

4) Tidal Mills (e.g. Woodbridge, Suffolk 12th Century)

Early Wind Power Devices

C 700 AD in Persia

•used for grinding corn

•pumping water

•evidence suggests that dry valleys were “Dammed” to harvest wind

LONDON - late 13th /early 14th Century

Shortage of timber for fires in London Area

Import of coal from Newcastle by sea for poor

Major environmental problems -high sulphur content of coal

Crisis resolved - The Black Death.

1.4 The First Fuel Crisis

UK - Late 15th/early 16th century

Shortage of timber - prior claim for use in ship-

building

Use of coal became widespread -even eventually for

rich

Chimneys appeared to combat problems of smoke

Environmental lobbies against use

Interruption of supplies - miner's strike

Major problems in metal industries led to many patents

to produce coke from coal (9 in 1633 alone)

1.5 The Second Fuel Crisis:-

Problems in Draining Coal Mines and Transport of coal

> threatened a third Fuel Crisis in Middle/late 18th Century

Overcome by Technology and the invention of the steam engine by Newcommen.

a means of providing substantial quantities of mechanical power which was not site specific (as was water power etc.).

NEWCOMMEN's Pumping Engine was only 0.25% efficient

Problems in Draining Coal Mines:

WATT improved the efficiency to 1.0%

Initially:

• Boiler valve closed• Injector valve closed

Open boiler valve

Steam push piston up and pumping rod down

At top of stroke

• Close boiler valve• Open injector valve

Water sprays in and condenses steam creating a vacuum

This “sucks” piston down and pulls pumping rod up with water.

Problem: Cylinder is continually cooled and warmed

The Newcomen Engine

9. Elementary Thermodynamics - Watt Engine.

Watt Engine

1) Cylinder is always warm

2) cold water is injected into condenser

3) vacuum is maintained in condenser so “suck” out exhaust steam.

4) steam pushes piston down pulling up pumping rod.

Higher pressure steam used in pumping part of cycle.

NUCLEAR

CHEMICAL - fuels:- gas, coal, oil etc.

MECHANICAL - potential and kinetic

ELECTRICAL

HEAT - high temperature for processes

- low temperature for space heating

• All forms of Energy may be measured in terms of Joules (J),

• BUT SOME FORMS OF ENERGY ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

1.8 Forms of Energy

Energy does not usually come in the form needed:

convert it into a more useful form.

All conversion of energy involve some inefficiency:-

Physical Constraints (Laws of Thermodynamics)

can be very restrictive

MASSIVE ENERGY WASTE.

This is nothing to do with our technical incompetence. The losses here are frequently in excess of 40%

ENERGY CONVERSION

Technical Limitations

(e.g. friction, aero-dynamic drag in turbines etc.) can be improved, but losses here are usually less than 20%, and in many cases around 5%.

Some forms of energy have low physical constraints converted into another form with high efficiency (>90%).

e.g. mechanical <--------> electrical mechanical/electrical/chemical -----------> heat

Other forms can only be converted at low efficiency

e.g. heat ------------> mechanical power - the car!

or in a power station

ENERGY CONVERSION

USE MOST APPROPRIATE FORM OF ENERGY FOR NEED IN HAND.

e.g. AVOID using ELECTRICITY for

• LOW TEMPERATURE SPACE heating• Hot Water Heating• Cooking (unless it is in a MicroWave).

ENERGY CONVERSION

HEATING - space and hot water demand

(80%+ of domestic use excluding transport)

LIGHTING

COOKING

ENTERTAINMENT

REFRIGERATION

TRANSPORT

INDUSTRY

- process heating/ drying/ mechanical power

• IT IS INAPPROPRIATE TO USE

ELECTRICITY FOR SPACE HEATING

WHAT DO WE NEED ENERGY FOR?

HIGH GRADE:

- Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical

MEDIUM GRADE: - High Temperature Heat

LOW GRADE: - Low Temperature Heat

• All forms of Energy will eventually degenerate to Low Grade Heat

• May be physically (and technically) of little practical use - i.e. we cannot REUSE energy which has been degraded

- except via a Heat Pump.

GRADES OF ENERGY

So where does it all go?

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW

• Transport Energy use has risen 10.5% in last decade

• Domestic use has risen by over 10%

1970 1980 1990 2002Domestic 816 882 902 1060Transport 623 786 1076 1207Industry 1379 1069 855 769Other 411 414 425 442

Conversion 1712 1565 1745 1844

Total 4942 4716 5004 5321

Non-Energy 240 165 249 241

• Consumption is ~ 5 kW per capita

• Industrial consumption has declined

• Transport consumption has increased

UK Energy Consumption

Domestic consumption has remained static.

Despite significant improvements to insulation

Increased Population: decreased household size: more convenience appliances: digital television

7. UK Energy Consumption 1990 - 2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Wat

ts p

er C

apit

a

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Non-Energy

Conversion

Other

Domestic

Transport

Industry

• Despite much improved insulation standards

• Domestic Energy use has remained static

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE

Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W.consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW

i.e. 10 times current demand

Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely valuein range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

Country Energy Requirement

    Population Per Capita

World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW

USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW

Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW

UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW

What impact are you having?

• We need to establish benchmarks– Take meter readings when you get home– Take them before you come next week– Keep a record of your petrol/diesel consumption

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

• Next Week– The Hard Choices facing us

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

Two questions to discuss

• Who should be responsible for combating Global Warming?• The Government ?• We, as individuals ?• Some one else – if so who?

• How can we even stabilise our consumption? • The Egalitarian Principle?

•Should we all have a fair and equal share of the world’s resources? • > richer countries use less• > poorer countries allowed to consume more

• Eventually all consume the same?

• Should those who already have high consumption be allowed to continue at the expense of those less fortunate?

The Newcomen Engine

Newcomen Engine

pushes piston up

3) At end of stroke, close steam value open injection valve

(and pumping rod down)

4) Water sprays in condenses steam in cylinder creating a vacuum and sucks piston down - and pumping rod up

2) Open steam valve

1) Boil Water > SteamProblem:

Cylinder continually is cooled and heated.