Climate Change and Municipalities in Canada: Mitigation and Adaptation Thomas Homer-Dixon Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies University of Toronto September 26 2007
Mar 26, 2015
Climate Change and Municipalitiesin Canada:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Thomas Homer-Dixon
Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies
University of Toronto
September 26 2007
• Climate change, some basicClimate change, some basicsciencescience
• ConsequencesConsequences
• Responses at municipal level Responses at municipal level
BASIC SCIENCEBASIC SCIENCE
Take-away messages:Take-away messages:• Earth is warming quicklyEarth is warming quickly
• Humans are the main causeHumans are the main cause
• Warming will be most pronounced at Warming will be most pronounced at high latitudes and on landhigh latitudes and on land
• Future warming will be nonlinearFuture warming will be nonlinear because of because of feedbacksfeedbacks
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
More rapid warming at polesMore rapid warming at poles
Main reason: Ice-albedo feedbackMain reason: Ice-albedo feedback
Melting of ice Melting of ice Lower reflectivity Lower reflectivity Increased absorption of sun’sIncreased absorption of sun’s energy energy Melting of iceMelting of ice
Sept. 164.12 million km2
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Projected warmingin 21st century expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes
and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
105001100011500120001250013000
Years before Present
Ice
Acc
umul
atio
n R
ate
(m
eter
s pe
r ye
ar)
CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
Take-away messages:Take-away messages:
• Extreme events will become more Extreme events will become more frequentfrequent
• Climate change will interact Climate change will interact synergistically with other stresses and synergistically with other stresses and vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities
Rising Frequency of Extreme EventsRising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
Rising Frequency of Extreme EventsRising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
X
Y1
Rising Frequency of Extreme EventsRising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
X
Y1
Y2
RESPONSESRESPONSES
Municipalities need to Municipalities need to mitigatemitigate
andand
adaptadapt
Impact, Mitigation, and AdaptationImpact, Mitigation, and Adaptation
2000 2100
Pot
entia
l Im
pact
2050
realized impact
mitigation
adaptation
Chris Milly (USGS/NOAA-GFDL, 2007)
We have very little “room to warm”:
Estimated maximum “safe” warming: 2°C
Warming to date: 0.8°C
Warming in pipeline, even if emissions cease: 0.6°C
Room to warm: 0.6°C
The Challenge: Very soon, humankind must cap—
and then ramp down—global carbon emissions
So we have very little “room to emit”:
Estimated carbon concentration that is likely to produce at least 2°C warming: ~450 ppm
Current concentration: ~380 ppm
Room to emit: ~ 70 ppm
Incremental annual increase: ~2 ppm and rising
Years to 450 ppm: ~ 30
•Increasing our use of Green PowerIncreasing our use of Green Power
•Capturing methane from landfills for energy Capturing methane from landfills for energy useuse
•Greening our vehicle fleetGreening our vehicle fleet
•Improving the energy efficiency of buildings Improving the energy efficiency of buildings & facilities & facilities
•Conserving water and energy in our facilitiesConserving water and energy in our facilities
•Demonstrating new & innovative Demonstrating new & innovative technologies & practices technologies & practices
CALGARY’S TARGET 50 PLAN
RESPONSESRESPONSES
Municipalities need to actMunicipalities need to act in four in four areas:areas:
• Overall planningOverall planning
• InfrastructureInfrastructure
• FacilitiesFacilities
• Emergency preparednessEmergency preparedness
PLANNING CONSIDERATIONSPLANNING CONSIDERATIONS
• Population densityPopulation density
• TransportTransport
• Vegetation, landscapingVegetation, landscaping
• Disease and pests that affect Disease and pests that affect humans, plants, and livestockhumans, plants, and livestock
INFRASTRUCTUREINFRASTRUCTURE
• WaterWater
• EnergyEnergy
• SewersSewers
FACILITIESFACILITIES
• SchoolsSchools
• Seniors’ homesSeniors’ homes
• HospitalsHospitals
• Parks and recreation facilitiesParks and recreation facilities
EMERGENCY PREPARATIONEMERGENCY PREPARATION
• FloodFlood
• DroughtDrought
• Heat wavesHeat waves
• BlackoutsBlackouts
FINAL ADVICEFINAL ADVICE
• Be creativeBe creative
• Challenge standard operating Challenge standard operating proceduresprocedures
• Work with civil societyWork with civil society
• Plan longPlan long
• Remember your grandchildrenRemember your grandchildren