Climate change and its implications on national security

Climate Change and its Implications on

National Security

Presented by

Amith Reddy

Clifton Trujillo

Kyle Hammond

David Willmon

Introduction

What is security?

• Soroos (1997) defines security as “the assurance people have that they will continue to enjoy those things that are most important to their survival and well-being”.

• Every nation has a national security strategy.

• Climate change is potentially the greatest challenge to global

stability.

• Some studies argue that climate change poses a long-term threat to

quality of life.

• Climate-induced events deteriorate or destroy:

o Physical or social infrastructure.

o Economic and social depression over scarce natural resources.

o Political development stability.

• These problems could challenge human survival on the planet.

Previous Studies

Threats of Climate Change• Human health

• Natural and water resources

• Human well-being

• Risk from internal instability and economic weakness.

Environmental Changes• Rising global temperatures

• Reduced water availability and drought;

• Increased floods and storms;

• Sea-level rise (threaten human health)

• Effect on food and water security.

• A rise in air and water temperature,

• Erratic rainfall.

World map indicating percentage of agricultural water threatened under a

dry climate change scenario

Additional Impacts

• Projected sea-level rise could be disastrous

• Threaten the whole economy in low-lying and island states in the world

• Threats on natural and coastal resources

• Threats on Ecosystem

• Undermine the infrastructure of society

• Adversely affects human system

Current Study

• Climate change will aggravate existing problems

o Poverty

o Social tensions

o Environmental degradations

o Weak political institutions that threaten state stability

• Climate change is connected to national security issues

Sources UsedFrom electronic and non-electronic databases• Journals• Reports• Proceedings• Internet Search Engines• Communicating with colleagues working in this area

of research

Studies FoundStudies included:

o Least-developed countrieso Developing countries

• Data, findings, and evidenceo Based on impact to individuals, communities, and national

well-being o Climate changeo Security threats

• Environmental security• Economic security• Political security

Climate Change and National Security

• Overwhelming scientific evidence suggests climate changes pose many threats to security and prosperity for humanity all over the world.

• Normally national security fell to government and the military.o Concept of human security is based on security and welfare of human

beings.

National security is…• A function of state legitimacy

o People can live in peace when there are no projected threats against:• Their welfare• The stability of political systems• Economic systems• Technology • Ecological systems

Floods, storms, droughts, heat and sea level rise

oEnvironmental degradationoResource depletion oLarge-scale migrationoSpread of diseaseoGreater competition for Earth’s resources

Rising temperatures, precipitation changes and extreme weather events could be a threat to key national economic sectors:

• Energy• Industries• Transports• Agriculture• Water and coastal resources• Public health

Arguments of Studies Reviewed

• Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, forest fires, and sea-level rise will be a challengeo For weak and fragile states with poorly performing institutions and

systems of governmento For low lying states and their infrastructures

• Could lead to a major socioeconomic crisis that affects the whole world.

United Nations Development Program

• Reported that flooding affected people’s:o Homeso Livelihoodso Access to medical facilitieso Sanitation o Safe drinking water

Natural disasters in coastal areas

• Due to sea level rise, intensive storms, and heavy precipitation• South Asia, China, and USA• Most affected would be:

o Region’s ecosystemso Biodiversityo Water and agricultureo Forestryo Fisherieso Livestock resourceso Political and social stability

Problems Caused by Resource Scarcity

• Disruption of production cycles• Extreme weather patterns• Reduction in water resources• Drop in agricultural production and decreased

availability to fresh water

Atoll Countries

• Most physically vulnerable to sea-level rise because of:oHigh ratio of coastline to land areaoHigh population densities o Low level of available resources

Small island states are at risk as well

• Examples are Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indiao All situated near major rivers, and deltas prone to flooding

• Bangladesho 80% of its land is in the floodplainso 1/3 under tidal influenceo Drought, desertification and cyclonic events affect:

• Agricultural production• Human beings

Environmental Dimensions

• Profound ecosystem impacto Natural resourceso Human dependence

• Major environmental threatso Desertification/deforestationo Global warming/ozone depletiono Rising sea-levelso Air and water pollution

Importance to Humans• Resource scarcity

o Fighting/killing over supplies• Oil, land, water, food• Terrain/ecosystem changes

o Reported 1.1 billion people lack access to drinkable water• Contaminants a major concern

oParasites, pollutants, etc.oWater is not an optional resource

Public Health• Increase in natural disasters

o Not enough staff/doctors to examine patientso Access to facilities limited during severe disasters

• Food store declineso World food stores declined drastically

• 11% in 2007, while price index increased 40%o Some African countries face future problems

• 50% of agricultural yield reduction by 2020o Projected 90% decline in revenue from crops by 2100

Public Health (continued)

• Suitable lando Forced migration

• Bangladesh sea-level risingo 45 cm could result in 5.5 million (10.9%) forced to evacuate

• Hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.o Affected areas become barren

• Where to occupy next?o Factors such as soil fertility and stable weather conditions

become increasingly important

Economic Dimensions• Climate change a global security issue

o Many significant effects including:• Loss of life and property• Loss of agricultural productivity• Economic damage

o Note that many impacts are cumulative• Issues alter and affect one another• Very rarely are problems independent/isolated

Impact on Economic Growth and Stabilityo Damage to both individuals and property• $6+ billion across 13 Asian and African countries in

December 2004• $4.45 billion of which was in Indonesia alone

o Most extreme cases• Some cities at peril of major flooding or submerging• Completely eradicates any economy for the area• Hard if not impossible to predict

oGreatly limits growth of nations without stable climates

• Also affects nations that rely on affected areas exports

The Political Dimension

• Climate-induced migrationo Link to political instabilityo High population pressureso Tension between nations

• Drought and Desertificationo Resource scarcityo Crop failure

The Way Forward• Reduce human contribution

o Lower greenhouse gas emissionso Learn from the past

• Education• Climate security

Enhancing Climate Security

• Political priority• Global dialogue

o Policy implementationo Assisting other countries

• Programs to address problemso Awarenesso Ecological degradationo Preparation for emergency situations

• Climate change presents a very serious challenge to the security and prosperity for

individuals, community as well as nations especially low-lying island states.

• Has many potential circumstances & consequences for the physical environment.

• Some nation-states are facing various stresses eg. temperature increases, change in rainfall

patterns, changes in livestock and agricultural crops, water stress, population growth, rapid

institutional changes, increase of economic inequality and large scale migration.

• Show consequences for livelihood, settlements patterns, resources pressures, potentially

increasing the risk of social instability as well as political.

Conclusion:

• There is need a political will or commitment to reduce greenhouse gas concentration and

ensure national security.

• Research for adaptive responses that would prepare for inevitable climate driven events such

as mass migration, disease and food and water shortages to enhance understanding of the

potential impacts of climate change on nations.

• Understanding the ways of climate change and to cope with the multiple regional stresses in

the context of increasing stresses caused by climate change,

• Every nation will need to develop an integrated approach in national and regional levels and

implement sustainable adaptive strategies as well as climate security.

Suggestions:

Questions?