Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability assessment Trinity International Development Initiative Dr. Elizabeth Cullen 10th November 2011.

Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability

assessment

Trinity International Development Initiative

Dr. Elizabeth Cullen10th November 2011

‘‘Every doctor should know what to Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’expect of the weather’

Hippocrates 400 B.CHippocrates 400 B.C

Summary of presentationSummary of presentation

• Climate change Climate change

• Impacts on healthImpacts on health

• ConclusionsConclusions

Source: Hadley Centre 2005

Source: Hadley Centre 2005

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (1

961-

1990

) oC

Ireland_anomaly 10 year moving average(global) 10 year moving average(Ireland)

Climate modelClimate model

• A climate model is a numerical A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004)2004)

Impacts of climate change Impacts of climate change on health in Irelandon health in Ireland

• Temperature related mortalityTemperature related mortality

• Food-borne diseaseFood-borne disease

• Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease

• Vector-borne diseasesVector-borne diseases

• Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancerskin cancer

201371-7

Mean temperature

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

Mor

tali

ty r

ate

per

100

,000

• Reductions in mortality, particularly Reductions in mortality, particularly

from cardiovascular and respiratory from cardiovascular and respiratory

mortality, and principally in the over mortality, and principally in the over

75 age group75 age group

Future changes in Future changes in temperature related temperature related

mortalitymortality

2010 - 39 2040 - 69 2070 - 99

% Change inmortality

-1.0(-0.4 - 2.3)

-2.1(-1.2 - 3.5)

-4.3(-2.1 - 6.9)

31302928272625242322212019181716151413121110987654321

Days

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

Mor

tali

ty r

ate

per

10,

000

and

tem

per

atu

re i

n d

egre

es C

elsi

us

Mortality rateTemperature

Foodborne diseaseFoodborne disease

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 5 10 15 20

Mean temperature

Observed

Quadratic

Incidence of salmonella per week per 100,000

0

3

6

9

12

15

2 5 8 10 12 15 18

Mean temperature

Observed

Linear

Cases

20

30

40

50

60

0 5 10 15 20 25

Mean temperature

Observed

Cubic

Cases of campylobacter

Foodborne diseaseFoodborne disease

For every 1 degree rise in mean For every 1 degree rise in mean temperature:temperature:

• Salmonella 8% rise Salmonella 8% rise

• Campylobacter 6% riseCampylobacter 6% rise

• VTEC 6% riseVTEC 6% rise

Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease

“”Water quality is only of importance to you

if you use a tap or a toilet”

Boyden, 2006

Climate change and rainfall Climate change and rainfall in Irelandin Ireland• WiWide-spread reduction in rain in East and de-spread reduction in rain in East and

South-East South-East

• Increase in winter rain in the WestIncrease in winter rain in the West

• Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time. area and persist for longer periods of time.

Water quality and healthWater quality and health: a multi-factorial issue: a multi-factorial issue

Warmer temperatures - growth of Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-micro-organismsorganisms

Increased run-off and floodingIncreased run-off and flooding

VTEC and cryptosporidiosisVTEC and cryptosporidiosis

Water treatment plants need urgent attentionWater treatment plants need urgent attention

FloodingFlooding

No warningNo warningNight timeNight timeColdCold

• Immediate Immediate • Mortality, trauma, pollutionMortality, trauma, pollution• DelayedDelayed Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections,Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections, dampness, asthmadampness, asthma• PsychologicalPsychological

Reduced water suppliesReduced water supplies

Increased demand for waterIncreased demand for water

Population increases in the EastPopulation increases in the East

Warmer temperaturesWarmer temperatures

Increased use Increased use of of surface watersurface water

Decreased efficDecreased efficieniency of treatment plantscy of treatment plants

EU Water FrameworkEU Water Framework Directive Directive

• To achieve ‘good status’ for all water To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015bodies by 2015

• New Drinking Water Regulations – New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water will result in improved drinking water qualityquality

‘‘Safe water cannot be taken for Safe water cannot be taken for granted’.granted’. (Wall 2001) (Wall 2001)

Other indirect effectsOther indirect effects

Malaria and Lyme diseaseMalaria and Lyme disease

Skin cancerSkin cancer

AllergiesAllergies

Summary of findings

•Less temperature related mortalityLess temperature related mortality• Increase in food-borne diseaseIncrease in food-borne disease• Increase in water-borne diseaseIncrease in water-borne disease•Change in vector-borne diseasesChange in vector-borne diseases• Increase in skin cancerIncrease in skin cancer•Change in timing and location of Change in timing and location of

allergic diseasesallergic diseases

RecommendationsRecommendations

• Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ registerHeat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register

• Food hygieneFood hygiene

• WFD and Drinking Water regulations are WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public health issuespublic health issues

• Education re exposure to sunEducation re exposure to sun

AfricaAfrica

• Increase heat stress and drought -human Increase heat stress and drought -human and animal mortalityand animal mortality

• Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Africa and decrease in Central AfricaSouth Africa and decrease in Central Africa

• Changes in tsetse fly distributionChanges in tsetse fly distribution

• Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - meningitis belt meningitis belt

• Increased flooding in Eastern AfricaIncreased flooding in Eastern Africa

Drought Zambia 2002 Photo 2002 Richard Lord / UMCOR

•The most important challenge is the

limited capacity for research and

adaptation in low- and middle-

income countries”• IPCC Fourth Report 2007

Conclusion Conclusion

• Imbalance between human activity Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life and environment diminish life support systemssupport systems

• Climate is a life supporting systemClimate is a life supporting system

• We need to address the causesWe need to address the causes

“We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006

• I would like to acknowledge a debt of I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Department of Geography, NUI MaynoothMaynooth

• Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection Agency

• Thank youThank you