Climate Change and Conserving Bay Area Ecosystems Ellie M Cohen and PRBO Staff November 1, 2010
Climate Change and Conserving Bay Area Ecosystems by Ellie M. Cohen
Jul 15, 2015
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Climate Change and Conserving Bay Area EcosystemsEllie M Cohen and PRBO Staff November 1, 2010
PRBO Conservation Science
Today’s Presentation
1. Latest Climate Change Findings and Projections
2. Ecosystem Adaptation for Rapid Change
3. Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium (BAECCC)
4. Where we go from here
PRBO Conservation Science
PRIORITY: Address Rapid Environmental Change
Tuna
Matt Jalbert
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Population growth Land-use changes and habitat loss Biodiversity loss Invasive species Over-exploitation of resources Fresh water diversions Pollution PHOTO: Sprawling development near San Ramon, California. Matt World Population To Hit 7 Billion By 2012 stumble digg reddit del.ico.us news trust STEPHEN OHLEMACHER | June 19, 2008 03:25 PM EST | WASHINGTON — The world's population will reach 7 billion in 2012, even as the global community struggles to satisfy its appetite for natural resources, according to a new government projection.There are 6.7 billion people in the world today. The United States ranks third, with 304 million, behind China and India, according to projections released Thursday by the Census Bureau. The world's population surpassed 6 billion in 1999, meaning it will take only 13 years to add a billion people. By comparison, the number of people didn't reach 1 billion until 1800, said Carl Haub, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau. It didn't reach 2 billion until 130 years later. "You can easily see the effect of rapid population growth in developing countries," Haub said. Haub said that medical and nutritional advances in developing countries led to a population explosion following World War II. Cultural changes are slowly catching up, with more women in developing countries going to school and joining the work force. That is slowing the growth rate, though it is still high in many countries. The global population is growing by about 1.2 percent per year. The Census Bureau projects the growth rate will decline to 0.5 percent by 2050. Global Change definition: According to the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, global change is defined as: “Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life.” The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 is the public law that established the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO).
PRBO Conservation Science
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Presentation Notes
Bill Anders, Dec. 24, 1968- “Earth Rise” by Apollo 8 crew as they were coming around from dark side of moon. Shows our world as finite, small, blue and our nearest neighbor in the foreground… History of earth on year long calendar-- earth formed new year’s day, multi cellular organisms mid summer, dinosaurs 1st week in December, birds around Christmas, early humans 10 minutes before midnight on New years eve towards the end of this entire year… The development of civilization that began with the retreat of the last massive ice sheets from the northern Hemisphere, when humans found a Garden of Eden climate around the world, when culture, arts, music, science, and religion germinated and blossomed, that truly remarkable time in the history of our planet occurred within the very last minute of this entire geologic year of earth’s history.
PRBO Conservation Science
CO2: Last this High ~15 Million Years Ago When….
Miocene: http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/palaeofiles/marsupials/Origin%20-%20Australia.htmToday approx. 390 ppm CO2 in atmosphere; showed dramatic rise in SLR associated with 100 ppmincrease
AradhnaTripati (UCLA) - Tripati et al, Science, Vol 326, no. 5958, Dec. 2009used ratios of boron to calcium in foraminifera - marine algae
• Sea level was 75-120 ft higher
•Temperature was 5-10 F warmer
• No permanent Arctic ice cap
• Little ice on Antarctica &Greenland
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Presentation Notes
http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/palaeofiles/marsupials/Origin%20-%20Australia.htm "The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Tripati, before joining UCLA's faculty, was part of a research team at England's University of Cambridge that developed a new technique to assess carbon dioxide levels in the much more distant past — by studying the ratio of the chemical element boron to calcium in the shells of ancient single-celled marine algae. Tripati has now used this method to determine the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere as far back as 20 million years ago. "We are able, for the first time, to accurately reproduce the ice-core record for the last 800,000 years — the record of atmospheric C02 based on measurements of carbon dioxide in gas bubbles in ice," Tripati said. "This suggests that the technique we are using is valid. "We then applied this technique to study the history of carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago to 20 million years ago," she said. "We report evidence for a very close coupling between carbon dioxide levels and climate. When there is evidence for the growth of a large ice sheet on Antarctica or on Greenland or the growth of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, we see evidence for a dramatic change in carbon dioxide levels over the last 20 million years. "A slightly shocking finding," Tripati said, "is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different." Prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the carbon dioxide level was about 280 parts per million, Tripati said. That figure had changed very little over the previous 1,000 years. But since the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide level has been rising and is likely to soar unless action is taken to reverse the trend, Tripati said.
PRBO Conservation Science
2000-2009 Warmest Decade on Record2010 ties 1998 as Warmest Year thru September
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2010july/
NOAA National Climatic Data Center- September 2010http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=9
NASA: “July is What Global Warming Looks Like”
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Presentation Notes
For January–September 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F) and tied with 1998 as the warmest January–September period on record. http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/18/noaa-2010-hottest-year-on-record-zambia-national-all-time-record/ Following fast on the heels of NASA reporting the hottest January to September on record, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center has released its State of the Climate: Global Analysis for September. It finds: For January–September 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F) and tied with 1998 as the warmest January–September period on record.
PRBO Conservation Science
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Lowest on Record– Sept 2010
“…the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It’s not going to recover,” Mark Serreze, Director, Natl.Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Anomalies computed relative to the 1979 to 2009 average for that day. The trend for the 1979- present period is shown in blue. Shaded areas show one &two standard deviations from trend.
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Presentation Notes
Daily Sea Ice volume anomalies for each day are computed relative to the 1979 to 2009 average for that day. The trend for the 1979- present period is shown in blue. Shaded areas show one and two standard deviations from the trend. This graph shows more than a 1000 km^3 drop in ice volume over the record low last year of 5,800 km^3 (67% below its 1979 maximum). I did check with PSC about their confidence level in this relative decline. They said that they don’t have credible numbers for the uncertainty of the model estimates, so it is possible that this volume drop is within the model error. For them, “The more important point in my view is that 2010 continues a long-term trend of declining sea ice volume.” Joe Romm www.climateprogress.org NSIDC director: “The volume of ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month.” - Serreze: "I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It's not going to recover." www.climateprogress.org Posted: 22 Sep 2010 03:26 PM PDT “We are proud of being the first sailing vessel, together with “Peter 1st”, that ever has sailed through both the Northeast and Northwest Passage in one short Arctic summer.” This amazing Arctic melt season is finally coming to an end. We just about equaled 2008 for the second lowest sea ice extent and area. But volume matters more — and here it looks like we’re setting the record. We’ve seen that National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) scientists have tracked a sharp drop in oldest, thickest Arctic sea ice. So it’s no surprise that the Polar Science Center’s PIOMAS model for mid-September shows a record low volume for the month and hence the year and hence “any time in recent geologic history.” [see image below] NSIDC director Mark Serreze was more direct in an email interview: “The volume of ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month.” He was confirming the accuracy of a terrific IPS story, “Arctic Ice in Death Spiral,” by (long-time CP commenter) Stephen Leahy. Serreze explained to Leahy: “I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It’s not going to recover,” he said. There can be no recovery because tremendous amounts of extra heat are added every summer to the region as more than 2.5 million square kilometres of the Arctic Ocean have been opened up to the heat of the 24-hour summer sun. A warmer Arctic Ocean not only takes much longer to re-freeze, it emits huge volumes of additional heat energy into the atmosphere, disrupting the weather patterns of the northern hemisphere, scientists have now confirmed….. You can see the 5-day moving average for the sea ice extent that NSIDC tracks has continued to decline through yesterday September 21 to nearly 4.5 million square kilometers — far below for predictions of both the disinformers and the experts. There is growing evidence of widespread impacts from a warmer Arctic, agreed Serreze. “Trapping all that additional heat has to have impacts and those will grow in the future,” he said. One local impact underway is a rapid warming of the coastal regions of the Arctic, where average temperatures are now three to five degrees C warmer than they were 30 years ago. If the global average temperature increases from the present 0.8 C to two degrees C, as seems likely, the entire Arctic region will warm at least four to six degrees and possibly eight degrees due to a series of processes and feedbacks called Arctic amplification…… “I hate to say it but I think we are committed to a four- to six-degree [Celsius] warmer Arctic,” Serreze said. If the Arctic becomes six degrees warmer, then half of the world’s permafrost will likely thaw, probably to a depth of a few metres, releasing most of the carbon and methane accumulated there over thousands of years, said Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks and a world expert on permafrost. Methane is a global warming gas approximately 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2)…..That would be catastrophic for human civilisation, experts agree. The permafrost region spans 13 million square kilometres of the land in Alaska, Canada, Siberia and parts of Europe and contains at least twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere – 1,672 gigatonnes of carbon, according a paper published in Nature in 2009. That’s three times more carbon than all of the worlds’ forests contain. “Permafrost thawing has been observed consistently across the entire region since the 1980s,” Romanovsky said in an interview.
PRBO Conservation Science
~40% in Phytoplankton Since 1950 Due to Warming
Global Phytoplankton Decline Boyce et.al., Nature : 466, Pages: 591–596 (29 July 2010)
• foundation of marine food web
• produce half world’s
O2
• sucks up… CO2
credit: Christopher Krembs, NOAA, US Department of Commerce)
O2
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Presentation Notes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100728/ap_on_sc/us_sci_declining_plankton Borenstein http://climateprogress.org/2010/07/29/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/ Nature Stunner: “Global warming blamed for 40% decline in the ocean’s phytoplankton” "Microscopic life crucial to the marine food chain is dying out. The consequences could be catastrophic." July 29, 2010 Scientists may have found the most devastating impact yet of human-caused global warming — a 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures. If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year in climate science. The headlines above are from an appropriately blunt article in The Independent about the new study in Nature, “Global phytoplankton decline over the past century” (subs. req’d). Even the Wall Street Journal warned, “Vital Marine Plants in Steep Decline.” Seth Borenstein of the AP explains, “plant plankton found in the world’s oceans are crucial to much of life on Earth. They are the foundation of the bountiful marine food web, produce half the world’s oxygen and suck up harmful carbon dioxide.” “2010 Nature Geoscience study: Oceans are acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred.” Global phytoplankton decline over the past century Daniel G. Boyce, Marlon R. Lewis & Boris Worm Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Journal name: Nature Volume: 466, Pages: 591–596 Date published: (29 July 2010) DOI: doi:10.1038/nature09268 Received 21 January 2010 Accepted 09 June 2010
PRBO Conservation Science
Rate of Ocean AcidificationFastest in 65m yrs; Lower pH= mass extinctions
Ridgwell & Schmidt, Nature Geoscience Feb 14 2010Dias, Hart, et al, Journal of the Geol.Society; Sept. 2010; v. 167
Tipping point pH of 7.8:
• calcified organisms disappear
• jellies & algae take over
pH
CO2
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Presentation Notes
lowering of ocean pH levels may have been responsible for massive extinctions in the past; corrosive waters Tipping point-- mean pH level of 7.8, calcified organisms begin to disappear, and non calcifying ones take over Current rate up to 10 times faster than 55m years ago – the last time deep oceans so acidic. Ridgwell & Schmidt, Nature Geoscience Feb 14 2010 Lower ph in past =mass extinctions Dias, Hart, et al, Journal of the Geol.Society; Sept. 2010; v. 167 One of the least-understood consequences of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere is that the oceans are becoming more acidic. This is because CO2 in the air dissolves in seawater to form carbonic acid — a weak acid that makes the oceans slightly more acidic. The rate of change is extremely rapid and it is expected that by the end of this century, the oceans will be more acidic than they have been for more than 20 million years. Over geological time scales, the pH of the seas has changed significantly in response to variations in atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the ocean has in the past been more acidic than we expect it to become over the coming decades. But what is different this time is the speed of change. Ecosystems have proved their ability to accommodate change when it is gradual, usually over hundreds of thousands of years. We do not know how well the marine ecosystem will adapt to changes that will occur over decades.
PRBO Conservation Science
Extreme, Unpredictable, Deadly Weather Events
US Climate Change Science Programwww.globalchange.gov
Record-breaking flooding Pakistan; heat/fire in Russia ‘mud slides in China NY Times, August 15, 2010,; Superstorm over midwest-- lowest barometric pressure recorded in continental US, October 26, 2010
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There will be an increase in intensity of precipitation events -- photo downtown San Anselmo December Jan. 1, 2006 The town suffered $30 million in damages from the flooding Poses Q’s– with faster runoff and possibly less overall precipitation– how do we capture that water? Will there be enough? Dan Cayan Climate Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography, SIO/UCSD CA Climate change Conference 9/14/06 Will California receive adequate precipitation? Little consensus wetter or drier Considerable interannual-interdecadal variability 9,000 Square Miles Flooded in China. By John Ruwitch, Reuters, June 18, 2008. “China has posted hundreds of police and rescue officials to shore up dams threatening to burst under torrential rain that has already flooded 9,000 square miles of crops and homes. The rain and floods, concentrated in the southern industrial hub of Guangdong, have killed at least 171 people and left 52 missing since the start of the annual flood season and forecasters have warned of more downpours in coming days… More than 1.66 million people have been evacuated across nine provinces and regions in southern China since major flooding started 11 days ago. Families were perched on the roofs of homes flooded up to the first-floor ceiling, enduring the latest in a series of disasters in Beijing’s Olympic year after record snowstorms in January and February and the devastating May 12 earthquake.” Early Monsoons Baffle Indian Weather Officials. By Pallava Bagla, NDTV [New Delhi], June 16, 2008. “The early arrival of the monsoon in Delhi, breaking a 108-year old record, has puzzled weather officials. It punches a hole in the entrenched theory — the hotter it gets, the better the chances of the monsoon. But this year, the north has been cooler by almost 1.5 degrees C. Yet, it took merely 12 days, instead of 30, for the monsoon to cover most of India. So is this freak weather? Is it climate change? In recent days, there have been other instances of freak weather in other parts of the world, floods in the U.S. and Australia [and China].” Lessons from An Angry Planet. Posted by Bill Becker, ClimateProgress.org, June 17, 2008. “As of June 13, 1,577 tornadoes had been reported in the U.S., with 118 fatalities. The season started in January, unusually early, with more than 130 reported tornadoes in the upper Midwest. As if to send voters a reminder… 84 tornadoes broke out the week of Super Tuesday in Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee. As I write this post, record floods are inundating communities in the Mississippi River Valley at a level of intensity that may make the Great Flood of 1993 seem like an ‘ankle tickler’… On June 9 in Wisconsin, a breach in its dam emptied [245-acre] Lake Delton… into the Wisconsin River. My old stomping grounds in Wisconsin’s Kickapoo River Valley suffered record flooding for the second time in a year. Among the inundated communities was Gays Mills, now threatened with extinction… By June 15, nine rivers in Iowa were at or above historic flood levels and 83 of the state’s 99 counties had been declared in a state of emergency. In Cedar Rapids, the Cedar River crested at 32 feet… Floodwaters are making their way down the Mississippi River… Meantime, a heat wave has been baking the East Coast from North Carolina to New Hampshire, wildfires have been destroying homes in California and, as if to reassure us that nature is not picking on America, 1.3 million people were fleeing flooding in China… Our sense of community now must come not from sharing disaster, but from the common effort to evolve past the carbon era. We need to pay attention to what scientists tell us we can expect from climate change, including extreme weather events. It should be obvious by now that we ignore their warnings at our own peril.” [To view an interactive flood map of the Midwest, click here.] Bill Becker is director of the Presidential Climate Action Project.
PRBO Conservation Science
1.2 mJan. 2009
Sea Level Rise– up to 6 ft by 2100
-Rate of global SLR already >2x faster than IPCC 2007 predictions(www.climateinstitute.org.au)
Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S. Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 2009
1.9 m
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Climate progress: Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100 High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an extra 20 inches by 2100 — to more than 6 feet. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse even more catastrophic for U.S. coasts Nature sea level rise shocker: Coral fossils suggest “catastrophic increase of more than 5 centimetres per year over a 50-year stretch is possible.” Lead author warns, “This could happen again.” Science News Share Blog Cite Print Email Bookmark Sea Level Could Rise from 0.75 to 1.9 Meters This Century ScienceDaily (Dec. 8, 2009) — A new scientific study warns that sea level could rise much faster than previously expected. By the year 2100, global sea level could rise between 75 and 190 centimetres, according to a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091207165252.htm IMAGE: The curve shows the sea level from the year 200 to the year 2100. The future rise in sea level of 1 m is calculated from global warming of 3...Click here for more information. IMAGE: The likelihood of flooding due to storm surges increases greatly if the ocean rises one meter. Such a rise in sea level will not flood large areas of land, but...Click here for more information. Another interesting paper on this topic: Rahmstorf, Stefan. A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise, Science, Vol. 315, Jan 19, 2007. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD http://www.glaciology.net/Home/PDFs/Announcements/gslprojection posted Dec 8, 2008 1:13 AM by Aslak Grinsted [ updated Jan 13, 2009 7:11 AM ] New research indicates that the ocean could rise in the next 100 years to a meter higher than the current sea level – which is three times higher than predictions from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. The groundbreaking new results from an international collaboration between researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, England and Finland are published in the scientific journal Climate Dynamics. According to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the global climate in the coming century will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today, but the ocean is much slower to warm up than the air and the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are also slower to melt. The great uncertainty in the calculation of the future rise in the sea level lies in the uncertainty over how quickly the ice sheets on land will melt and flow out to sea. The model predictions of the melting of the ice sheets are the basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's predictions for the rise in sea level are not capable of showing the rapid changes observed in recent years. The new research has therefore taken a different approach. Looking at the direct correlation "Instead of making calculations based on what one believes will happen with the melting of the ice sheets we have made calculations based on what has actually happened in the past. We have looked at the direct relationship between the global temperature and the sea level 2000 years into the past", explains Aslak Grinsted, who is a geophysicist at the. With the help of annual growth rings of trees and analysis from ice core borings researchers have been able to calculate the temperature for the global climate 2000 years back in time. For around 300 years the sea level has been closely observed in several places around the world and in addition to that there is historical knowledge of the sea level of the past in different places in the world. By linking the two sets of information together Aslak Grinsted could see the relationship between temperature and sea level. For example, in the Middle Ages around 12th century there was a warm period where the sea level was approximately 20 cm higher than today and in the 18th century there was the 'little ice age', where the sea level was approximately 25 cm lower than it is today. A rise in sea level in the future as in the past Assuming that the climate in the coming century will be three degrees warmer, the new model predictions indicate that the ocean will rise between 0,9 and 1,3 meters. To rise so much so quickly means that the ice sheets will melt much faster than previously believed. But it has already been observed that the ice sheets react quicker to increases in temperature than experts thought just a few years ago. And studies from the ice age show that ice sheets can melt quickly. When the ice age ended 11.700 years ago, the ice sheets melted so quickly that sea level rose 11 millimeters per year – equivalent to a meter in 100 years. In the current situation with global warming, Aslak Grinsted believes, that the sea level will rise with the same speed – that is to say a meter in the span of the next 100 years.
PRBO Conservation Science
Extreme Drought Globally & Permanent Dust Bowls in US West over Decades Ahead
Palmer Drought Severity Index of -4 or lower considered extreme drought; UCAR graphics; not forecastsDrought under global warming: a review, Aiguo Dai , National Center for Atmospheric Research, 19 Oct
2010 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full
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NCAR http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full The most severe drought in recent history, in the Sahel region of western Africa in the 1970s, had a PDSI of -3 or -4. Future drought. These four maps illustrate the potential for future drought worldwide over the decades indicated, based on current projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. These maps are not intended as forecasts, since the actual course of projected greenhouse gas emissions as well as natural climate variations could alter the drought patterns.��The maps use a common measure, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which assigns positive numbers when conditions are unusually wet for a particular region, and negative numbers when conditions are unusually dry. A reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought. Regions that are blue or green will likely be at lower risk of drought, while those in the red and purple spectrum could face more unusually extreme drought conditions. (Courtesy Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, redrawn by UCAR. This image is freely available for media use. Please credit the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. For more information on how individuals and organizations may use UCAR images, see Media & nonprofit use*) www.climateprogress.org Extended drought and Dust-Bowlification over large swaths of the habited Earth may be the most dangerous impact of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions, as I’ve discussed many times (see Intro to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water). That’s especially true since such impacts could well last centuries, whereas the actual Dust Bowl itself only lasted seven to ten years — see NOAA stunner: Climate change “largely irreversible for 1000 years,” with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest and around the globe. As alarming as Figure 11 shows, there may still be other processes that could cause additional drying over land under global warming that are not included in the PDSI calculation. For example, both thermodynamic arguments124 and climate model simulations125 suggest that precipitation may become more intense but less frequent (i.e., longer dry spells) under GHG-induced global warming. This may increase flash floods and runoff, but diminish soil moisture and increase the risk of agricultural drought. That is, even when it does rain in dry areas, it may come down so intensely as to be counterproductive. The study notes that “Recent studies revealed that persistent dry periods lasting for multiple years to several decades have occurred many times during the last 500–1000 years over North America, West Africa, and East Asia.” Of course, those periods inevitably caused havoc on local inhabitants. Further, this study warns that by century’s end, even in this moderate scenario, many parts of the world could see extended drought beyond the range of human experience: A must-read new study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, “Drought under global warming: a review,” is the best review and analysis on the subject I’ve seen. It spells out for the lukewarmers and the delayers just what we risk if we continue to listen to the Siren song of “more energy R&D plus adapatation.” The NCAR study is the source of the top figure (click to enlarge), which shows that in a half century, much of the United States (and large parts of the rest of the world) could experience devastating levels of drought — far worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl, especially since the conditions would only get worse and worse and worse and worse, while potentially affecting 10 to 100 times as many people. And this study merely models the IPCC’s “moderate” A1B scenario — atmospheric concentrations of CO2 around 520 ppm in 2050 and 700 in 2100. We’re currently on the A1F1 pathway, which would takes us to 1000 ppm by century’s end, but I’m sure with an aggressive program of energy R&D we could keep that to, say 900 ppm.
PRBO Conservation Science
National Park Service
33% in Fog on West Coast since 1901
“coast redwood and other ecosystems along the U.S. West Coast may be increasingly drought-
stressed “ – Todd Dawson, UC BerkeleyJohnstone, et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences. February 2010
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Presentation Notes
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100215174117.htm Fog Has Declined in Past Century Along California's Redwood Coast ScienceDaily (Feb. 16, 2010) — California's coastal fog has decreased significantly over the past 100 years, potentially endangering coast redwood trees dependent on cool, humid summers, according to a new study by University of California, Berkeley, scientists. It is unclear whether this is part of a natural cycle of the result of human activity, but the change could affect not only the redwoods, but the entire redwood ecosystem, the scientists say. "Since 1901, the average number of hours of fog along the coast in summer has dropped from 56 percent to 42 percent, which is a loss of about three hours per day," said study leader James A. Johnstone, who recently received his Ph.D. from UC Berkeley's Department of Geography before becoming a postdoctoral scholar in the campus's Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management (ESPM). "A cool coast and warm interior is one of the defining characteristics of California's coastal climate, but the temperature difference between the coast and interior has declined substantially in the last century, in step with the decline in summer fog." The loss of fog and increased temperature mean that "coast redwood and other ecosystems along the U.S. West Coast may be increasingly drought-stressed, with a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand," said coauthor Todd E. Dawson, UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology and of ESPM. "Fog prevents water loss from redwoods in summer, and is really important for both the tree and the forest. If the fog is gone, we might not have the redwood forests we do now." The scientists' report will be posted online during the week of Feb. 15 in advance of publication in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Fog is clearly a dominant climatic factor on the California coast, and long-term reductions likely have and may continue to impact the water and carbon economy of redwoods and other coastal endemic species," they concluded. Using a network of 114 temperature stations along the Pacific Coast, Johnstone and Dawson demonstrated that the coast-inland contrast has decreased substantially, not just in Northern California, but along the entire U.S. coastline from Seattle to San Diego. This change is particularly noticeable in the difference between Ukiah, a warm Coast Range site in Northern California, and Berkeley on San Francisco Bay. At the beginning of the 20th century, the daytime temperature difference between the two sites was 17 degrees Fahrenheit; today, it is just 11 degrees Fahrenheit. The relationship between temperature gradient and fog frequency implies a 33 percent drop in fog along the coast during this time. Greater fog frequency is connected to cooler than normal ocean waters from Alaska to Mexico and warm water from the central North Pacific to Japan. This temperature flip-flop is a well-known phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation -- an El Niño-like pattern of the north Pacific that affects salmon populations along the US West Coast. The new results show that this pattern may also have substantial effects on the coastal forest landscape. In addition, the data show that the coast gets foggier when winds blow from the north along the coast, which fits with observations that northerly winds push surface waters offshore and allow the upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich water. "This is the first data actually illustrating that upwelling along the Pacific coast and fog over the land are linked," Johnstone said. By pulling in data on temperature variation with elevation, Johnstone and Dawson also related their fog data with a temperature inversion that each summer traps the fog between the coast and the coastal mountains. The inversion is caused by a warm, dry, high-pressure cell that sits over Northern California in late summer, bringing hot temperatures to inland areas, including the Central Valley. If the inversion is strong, its lower boundary at about 1,200 feet keeps a lid on the cool marine layer and prevents fog from penetrating over the Coast Ranges. When it is weak, the ocean air and clouds move upward and inland, resulting in a cooler interior and a warmer, drier coast. "The data support the idea that Northern California coastal fog has decreased in connection with a decline in the coast-inland temperature gradient and weakening of the summer temperature inversion," Johnstone said. "As fog decreases, the mature redwoods along the coast are not likely to die outright, but there may be less recruitment of new trees; they will look elsewhere for water, high humidity and cooler temperatures," Dawson said. "What does that mean for the current redwood range and that of the plants and animals with them?" Eventually, Dawson and Johnstone hope to correlate fog frequency with redwood tree ring data in order to estimate climate trends going back hundreds of years. "While people have used tree ring data from White Mountain bristlecone pines and stumps in Mono Lake to infer climate change in California, redwoods have always been thought problematic," Dawson said, mainly because it's hard to determine whether the width of a tree ring reflects winter rain, summer fog, temperature, nutrient supply or other factors. "Stable isotope analyses of wood cellulose allows you to pull this data out of the tree ring." Dawson has established that the isotopes of oxygen in a tree reflect whether the water comes in via the leaves from fog, or via the roots from rainwater. "Redwoods live for more than 2,000 years, so they could be a very important indicator of climate patterns and change along the coast," he said. The new fog data will allow Dawson and Johnstone to calibrate their tree ring isotope data with actual coastal fog conditions in the past century, and then extrapolate back for 1,000 years or more to estimate climate conditions. The work was supported by the Save the Redwoods League and the Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center.
PRBO Conservation Science
www.prbo.org Roth et al. 2009 (in prep)
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Sprin
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Earlier Onset of Upwelling
• 20 days earlier since 1970’s• Common Murres not adapting• Mismatch in timing
Presenter
Presentation Notes
In spring, ocean upwelling brings nutrient-rich waters to the surface, spurring food production for marine wildlife around the Farallon National Wildlife Refuge. PRBO scientists have found that upwelling is occurring 20 days earlier than in the 1970s when our research began. Common Murres have not been able to adjust their nesting cycle to match this altered timing.
PRBO Conservation Science
Bay Area National Parks: 6° F by 2070
• Muir Woods National Monument + 5.9°F
- As hot as San Diego historically has been
• Point Reyes National Seashore + 6.0°F
- As hot as Santa Barbara has been
Projected Temperature Increases by 2070-2099; Averages of 6 Climate Models With Medium-High Future EmissionsComparisons to 1961-1990 Temperatures; http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/programs_11.htm
Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and NRDC October 26, 2010
Chimney Rock, PRNS; photo Miguel V
PRBO Conservation Science
Acorn Woodpecker: negative response to projected increase in rainfall variability in Marin County
What does this tell us about oak woodlands? Need more information….
www.prbo.org/data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Diana S- 030509 Yes, I would say this is a good example of currently associated species that projected to shift in different ways. It's true that the variable importance numbers on the website don't really convey the differences; you have to go back and look at the response curves for different variables, which we though would be too much for people to digest -- especially because they are tricky to interpret even for us. But it looks like what is going on for these two species is that Oak Titmouse is responding positively to an increase in temperature, while the ACWO response is flat for the range of temperature change in Marin (although you can see a great increase inland). The decrease in ACWO appears to be due to a steep negative association with precipitation seasonality (for the range of change in Marin). I interpret this as Marin becoming more "coastal" (according to this climate model), with greater monthly variability in rainfall.��I'm not sure what this tells us about oak woodland habitat in general, since the general vegetation type is not projected to change much in Marin. But I would assume that there are either subtle differences in the habitat components that these two species use, or direct climate controls on other aspects of their biology, such as food availability. This is the kind of interpretation for which we could benefit from PRBO biologist input.�
PRBO Conservation Science
Oak Titmouse: positive response to projected increase temperatures in Marin County
Two oak woodland associated bird species but different responses to changing conditions….
www.prbo.org/data
PRBO Conservation Science
By 2070: Over 50% of CA will likely have very different “no-analog” ecological communities
Source: PRBO, Stralberg et al., PLoS One, 2009
•Data from 60 land bird focal species•Assumes all exist 60 years from now •Combined with temperature, precipitation and vegetation variables •From IPCC moderate climate scenarios
Red= Very Different
Blue= Less Different
Presenter
Presentation Notes
We may also be interested in identifying hotspots of change. Whether to focus on areas of increase or decrease is a good question. Probably want to do some bet hedging. But it’s important to know where new areas of high biodiversity will be, for reserve design, etc. From Diana Stralberg 030509: We have so far developed avian distribution predictions from two sets of regional climate model projections (from Mark Snyder at UCSC), which unfortunately (because they are so time-consuming to run) are for two different time periods. The one based on GFDL inputs and emissions scenario A2 was run from 2038-2070. The one based on NCAR inputs and emissions scenario A1B was run from 2080-2099. Actually the CO2 concentrations are fairly similar for those two combinations of years and emissions scenarios, so the difference in years doesn’t mean all that much. Soon we are getting a newer set of NCAR-based runs that will match the GFDL time period and emission scenario, so we won’t have this comparison issue. The on-line maps so far only show 2080-2099 (NCAR, emissions scenario A1B). We call this 2100 but it is really the mean over the 20-year year period ending in 2099. It also only shows one distribution model algorithm (Maxent). All of the syntheses we have done so far – no-analog, gap analysis, and land-use change – are based on these same distribution models. So I’m not sure which model Chrissy’s results are based on, but I had suggested that she work with the average (across two climate scenarios, and also two model algorithms). For the no-analog maps, there are four versions (2 climate scenarios x 2 model algorithms), but you just used one of the GFDL (2038-2070) versions.
PRBO Conservation Science
PRBO Conservation Science
How do we start managing for rapid change now?
Photo by John Wiens, Tolay Creek/Tubbs Island, San Pablo NWR
Promote:• ecological processes, function and services• multi-species approach over single species• ecological “response”• climate-smart strategies in management plans, protocols and regulations
Presenter
Presentation Notes
MANAGE FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION Reduce focus on single species management WHY CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES RIPARIAN RESTORATION MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER Authors: N. Seavy, T. Gardali, C. Howell, and others (draft, March 2008) Contact: [email protected] designing adaptation strategies that can maintain ecosystem integrity in the face of climate change (Hulme 2005). Adaptation strategies are typically designed around three main concepts. Ecosystems can be managed for resistance by taking actions that will forestall the effects of climate change (Parker et al. 2000). Alternatively, by managing for ecosystem response to climate change, managers can facilitate the shifts in distribution that will occur (Millar et al. 2007). Finally, managers can improve ecosystem resilience with actions that enable systems to return to desired conditions after disturbance (Scheffer et al. 2001). All three of these components will have a role to play in adaptation strategies (Millar et al. 2007). In a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystem under changing conditions, Millar et al. (2007) provide a examples specific practices that can be implemented to enhance ecosystem resistance, resilience, and response to climate change. These practices include enhancing connectivity, promoting redundancy and buffers, reducing landscape synchrony, realigning disrupted conditions, expecting surprises, and exploring refugia (Millar et al. 2007). Refuges: Reducing strressors and human activities– under mitigation and adaptation Establishing corridors for species migration
PRBO Conservation Science
past future
Ecos
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Plan for Extremes, Wider Range of Variability
e.g. plan for mega-drought, 1000+ yr flood , increased coastal salinity, etc. Nat Seavywww.prbo.org
--Prioritize conservation projects that could succeed under multiple scenarios
--Reduce stressors and protect refugia(e.g., non-native predators, real-time marine reserves)
--Manage for habitat and ‘climate space’ heterogeneity
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Re do this slide to think about thresholds. Show that the range of conditions we need to plan for is changing. Cite managing for thresholds. 2-Slight Changes in Climate May Trigger Abrupt Ecosystem Responses Released: 1/16/2009 12:04:18 PM http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2110&from=rss_home To view the full report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems, visit http://climatescience.gov. Slight changes in climate may trigger major abrupt ecosystem responses that are not easily reversible. Some of these responses, including insect outbreaks, wildfire, and forest dieback, may adversely affect people as well as ecosystems and their plants and animals. The U.S. Geological Survey led a new assessment of the implications of a warming world on "ecological thresholds" in North America. The report, which was commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and authored by a team of federal and academic climate scientists, is based on a synthesis of published scientific literature and addresses what research and steps are needed to help mitigate resulting effects. An ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem that produces large, persistent and potentially irreversible changes. "One of our biggest concerns is that once an ecological threshold is crossed, the ecosystem in question will most likely not return to its previous state," said USGS Associate Director for Biology Susan Haseltine. "The existence of thresholds should be a key concern of scientists and natural resource managers." The team also emphasized that human actions may increase an ecosystem's potential for crossing ecological thresholds. For example, additional human use of water in a watershed experiencing drought could trigger basic changes in aquatic life that may not be reversible. Researchers and decision makers need to develop the tools necessary to predict the effects of specific ecological disturbances and to understand early warning signals of impending ecological thresholds. The report also concludes that although not enough is known about ecological thresholds, researchers do already know that ecosystems will differ significantly in their respective thresholds. More vulnerable ecosystems, such as those that already face stressors other than climate change, will almost certainly reach their threshold for abrupt change sooner. The Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Forest Service, Department of Energy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and National Science Foundation contributed to this rep Study: Western forests dying at increasing rate By Jeff Barnard Associated Press Writer Updated: 01/23/2009 11:52:36 AM MST http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_11537338 The death rate increase varied, with the highest in California's Sierras, from about 0.9 percent in 1980 and rising to about 1.3 percent. GRANTS PASS, Ore. » Trees in old growth forests across the West are dying at a small, but increasing rate that scientists conclude is probably caused by longer and hotter summers from a changing climate. While not noticeable to someone walking through the forests, the death rate is doubling every 17 to 29 years, according to a 52-year study published in the Friday edition of the journal Science. The trend was apparent in trees of all ages, species, and locations. "If current trends continue, forests will become sparser over time," said lead author Phillip J. van Mantgem of the U.S. Geological Survey's Western Ecological Research Center. http://www.planetizen.com/node/30205 Flooding in the Mississippi River floodplain in Missouri caused federal officials to call for the removal of buildings and homes in the threatened area in 1993. But now, development is being allowed in the same flood-prone areas. "It's been fifteen years since the Great Flood of 1993 put this land under 10 feet of water. Since then, thousands of acres of floodplain in the St. Louis area have been built up with strip malls, office and industrial parks, and 28,000 new homes. And all this infrastructure depends on miles and miles of levees to hold back the Mississippi and Missouri rivers the next time they try to retake the land." "If you ignore the historical tendency of the Mississippi and Missouri to periodically drown it, this vast, flat landscape does present an appealing canvas for building." "In the first blush of post-flood shock, some local and federal officials decided that trying to hold back the Mississippi River was likely to be a costly and never-ending enterprise. Instead of depending on levees and other structures for protection, some thought, it was time to move people's homes and workplaces off the floodplain and cede ground to the river." "It may have been the greatest exodus of Americans from floodplain homes and businesses in the nation's history." "But official resolve to depopulate the floodplain has given way to development fever in Missouri: over $2.2 billion worth so far on land that was underwater in 1993. And unlike some of the other states deluged in the Flood of 1993, such as Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois, Missouri has been much slower to enact stronger regulations for floodplain development -- perhaps because the state has hundreds of miles of floodplain fronting the Mississippi and Missouri rivers (read: lots of tax income lost and jobs unrealized if new businesses and homes don't get built)."
PRBO Conservation Science
Cool
Warm
Wet Dry
Restore for genetic diversity to prepare for extremes
Source: www.prbo.org , Seavy et al., Ecol. Rest v27
Consider planting “new but nearby” species
PRBO Conservation Science
Employ Adaptive, Flexible Management Strategies
Recommend Actions
MonitorAt Multiple Scales, Identify & Test Indicators, Provide Early
Warning of Change
Implement
Modify
Evaluate
Williams et al. 2007. Department of Interior Adaptive Management Technical Guide
Elliott, et., al., Adaptive Conservation Strategies Guide, 2003 www.prbo.org
Identify/ Reassess Threats regularly update with
new climate change knowledge
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Critical to have baseline data, to monitor and to learn from what we’ve done to improve success MONITOR– talk about investments –require regular report, otherwise would never give a dollar. Only lip service now for adaptive mgmt- need to make it reality, include in new laws, everytime restoration or aqisitoin is funded– need to know what works and how to make it better during rapid change highlight the importance of ‘effective monitoring’ as part of adaptive management scheme with uncertain future conditions . Broad scale (BBS type) trend monitoring will be very helpful guiding us on where to do more intensive monitoring and research, but it will not provide results that can be used to adaptively manage. There is lots of pressure for USFWS to participate in broad sale BCR-wide trend monitoring. This would take away their ability to fund effective monitoring at the project level.
PRBO Conservation Science
Goal: Slow Down Impacts of Rapid Change to Provide Time for Response & Adaptation
PRBO Conservation Science
Must Manage for Multiple Benefits Simultaneously
LIFE on EARTH
CARBON
www.prbo.org Ellie Cohen
PRBO Conservation Science
Accelerate ‘Biohydrological’ Conservation
Strategies include:
• Expand restoration & protection of riparian corridors & urban creeks
• ID & protect groundwater storage (aquifers)
• Enhance soil water retention qualities
• Partner with adjacent/regional water users & decision makers
•Require urban permeable surfaces; run-on instead of run-off
PRBO Conservation Science
Promote Eco-friendly Agricultural Practices
Including:
• Grass fed/finished livestock
• Rotational grazing
• Mixed farming
• Multiple ecosystem services:• Sequester CO2 • Replenish the soil carbon bank• Retain soil moisture• Increase productivity
PRBO Conservation Science
Goal: sequester carbon in CA’s rangeland soils working with land owners and managers
MCP research measured a rate of over 10 Metric Tons of C/hacomposting & grazing approachbenefits water and biodiversity also
Major potential for Bay Area’s ~800k acres (325k ha) of rangeland
Director: John Wick Science lead: Whendee Silver, U.C. Berkeley Partners: UC Berkeley and Davis, Stakeholders, Resource Conservation District, UC Extension, Marin Agricultural Land Trust, Marin
www.marincarbonproject.org
Promote nature’s sequestration and reduce emissions – ex.: Marin Carbon Project
PRBO Conservation Science
Prioritize Linkages and Networks Across
Multiple Scales– ex: Upland Goals Project
PRBO Conservation Science
Characteristics of riparian areas:
1. Naturally resilient
2. Provide linear habitat connectivity
3. Link aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems
4. Create thermal refugia for wildlife
5. Restore underground aquifers
Prioritize Riparian Restoration- more important than ever in context of rapid climate change
Source: www.PRBO,.org Why climate change makes riparian restoration more important than ever. 2009. Ecological Restoration Seavy et al., Ecol. Rest. v27
PRBO Conservation Science
Partner Across Existing Boundaries
Gale Ranch – 3 yrs after restorationGale Ranch
• Allows connectivity so species can move in response to change •Promotes ecosystem function
Connect Public and Private Landowners
PRBO Conservation Science
Must Also Link Upland, Estuarine, Coastal and Ocean Efforts
Anchor Bay Area adaptation in region-wide ecosystem
processes & function
PRBO Conservation Science
ADAPTATION WILL REQUIRE THINKING & WORKING OUTSIDE TRADITIONAL BOUNDARIES
Bringing together scientists, natural resource managers and planners to:
• Reduce negative impacts of accelerating climate change on the region’s wildlife, habitats & ecosystems from the SF Bay uplands and estuary out to the Greater Gulf of the Farallones;
• Secure nature’s benefits to society.
Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium
www.baeccc.org
STRATEGIES
• Overcome fragmented approaches by jointly prioritizing & addressing climate impacts on region’s ecosystems.
• Collaboratively develop, implement & evaluate adaptive management protocols to address change.
• Serve as clearinghouse for Bay Area ecosystem climate science & adaptation.
Members:•NOAA Gulf of the Farallones and
Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries
•US Fish & Wildlife Service SF Bay Refuge Complex
•NOAA Coastal Services Center•PRBO Conservation Science
•US Geological Survey•CA Coastal Conservancy
•CA Dept of Fish and Game•National Park Service- GGNRA
and PRNS•Bay Conservation and
Development Commission•SF Bay Joint Venture
•SF Estuary Partnership•Upland Goals Project
•Bay Area Open Space Council
10-YEAR OUTCOMES:1-Science-based ecosystem adaptation approaches
tested, implemented & disseminated.
2- Natural resource management protocols, plans, policies revised/developed to address climate change.
3- SF Bay Area ocean-estuary-upland ecosystems have enhanced ability to respond to rapid climate change and to sustain nature’s benefits to our communities.
2-YEAR OUTCOMES include: Develop Research Strategic Plan to ID Gaps, Prioritize Research
and Monitoring for Effective Adaptation
Develop Early Indicators Climate Change Monitoring Network
Produce and Disseminate Best Management Practices Manual for Ecosystem Adaptation
Establish Bay Area Climate Change Science & Resource Mgmt Communications & Informatics Network
Produce and Disseminate Lesson’s Learned Case Study to on linking science and resource mgmt to accelerate adaptation.
And conduct collaborative Pilot Projects including:
Preparing for SLR and Extreme Storms Along the San Francisco Bay Area’s Outer Coast (funded- NOAA SARP, NPS)
Project Objectives Include:
Assess vulnerabilities to SLR & increased storm intensity as well as stakeholder information needs from Point San Pedro to Point Reyes.
Develop web-based tools and interactive maps
Conduct workshops to communicate the findings for application to local adaptation and response strategies.
Project Leads:
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Two year project Anticipated products include: Identification of stakeholder needs and potential impacts of sea level rise and climate change. Sea level rise model that includes increased storm intensity and frequency for the San Francisco Bay Area outer coast. GIS maps of sea level rise within the study region. Report assessing impacts of sea level rise within the study region. On-line decision support tool with interactive maps presenting information needed by stakeholders related to sea level rise impacts. Action plan with adaptation strategies to address sea level rise impacts along the outer San Francisco Bay Area coast and next steps for regional collaboration to address these impacts on the outer coast.
Climate Change Technical Update of 1999 Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals (funded-Coastal Conservancy)
Project Objectives include:
Provide updated habitat restoration and protection goals for next decade
ID upland sites that can accommodate wetland transgression upslope.
ID management strategies for more resilient marshes (e.g., improve sedimentation dynamics) and “living marshes” to protect shorelines
ID long-term science and mgmt. gaps to implement recommendations.
Project Partners include:
PRBO Conservation Science
BAECCC in LARGER CONTEXT: CA Landscape Conservation Cooperative
CA LCC: A management-science partnership to inform on-the-ground conservation actions addressing climate change and other stressors within and across landscapes.
Funding- USFWS, USGS, DOI
PRBO Conservation Science
Word of Caution: Best Science &Tools Do Not Ensure They will be Used
•Face to face interactions– important by rarely available• information dissemination should include in-person interactions to ensure effective use
•Peer-reviewed publications and synthetic reviews are important•Need clearinghouses that make this information more easily available
•Web-based tools were not perceived as important or widely available
•Need in-person trainings and follow-up to ensure use of new knowledge and tools
www.prbo.org Seavy and Howell. 2010. How can we improve delivery of decision support tools for conservation and restoration? Biodiversity and Conservation 19:1261–1267. Funded in part through a CalFed Science Fellowship
PRBO Survey on Managers, Decision Makers Use of Decision Support Tools:
PRBO Conservation Science
PRBO Conservation Science
Apply the 10% Rule
T = Test &
E = Experiment
N = Nowof your time to
www.prbo.org
Allocate
Presenter
Presentation Notes
T = test, assess E = experiment, try something new, innovate N = now, newfangled, new
PRBO Conservation Science
No More “Business as Usual”
Stop greenhouse gas emissionsand
make ecosystem conservation an equal priority now
Presenter
Presentation Notes
IPCC 4th Assessment Final Report Nov. 2007�The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost. How do we go beyond business as usual? Not just our “lifestyle” but getting out of our comfort zone- the heat is on– don’t even need a regulatory hammer here- ESA should be Ecosystem services Act-- how we in our own organizations and agencies get out of our 20th century comfort zone, face the challenges ahead proactively, work together– go beyond adversarial relationships to cooperative ones? Go beyond policy conflicts of interest? DWR- great website, say the right things– how to make it work in practice?
PRBO Conservation Science
“By working together, we can provide a network of vital Bay Area lands that
supports people and wildlife, helps us adapt to
climate change, and supports our health and
economy.”
PRBO Conservation Science
In Summary:
1. Climate change impacts are growing
2. Manage for multiple ecosystem benefits simultaneously–water, carbon, biodiversity
3. Plan for extremes
4. Employ adaptive management
5. Collaborate across traditional boundaries— e.g., engage scientists with resource managers
6. For findings to be used– conduct trainings, one-on-one meetings, follow-up
7. Think out-of-the protected area!www.prbo.org/climatechange
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Develop management practices to forestall thresholds or soften the transitions, through maintaining habitat refugia, protecting buffer habitats, or creating “stepping stones” of protected areas to facilitate distributional shifts;
PRBO Conservation Science
Acknowledgements
PRBO scientists, support staff, Board, members, and:Anonymous
S.D. Bechtel, Jr. FoundationBernice Barbour Foundation
Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management
California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game
California Department of Water ResourcesCalifornia Bay Delta Authority
California AudubonCalifornia Seagrant
Central Valley Joint VentureCornell Lab of Ornithology
DMARLOU FoundationRichard Grand Foundation
Marin Community FoundationMarin Municipal Water District
Giles Mead FoundationMoore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation
David and Lucile Packard FoundationNational Fish and Wildlife Foundation
National Park ServiceNational Science Foundation
NOAA Fisheries, Marine SanctuariesNatural Resource Conservation Service
Resources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund FoundationRiparian Habitat Joint Venture
San Francisco FoundationSan Francisco Bay Joint Venture
The Climate ProjectThe Nature Conservancy
U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUSDA Forest Service
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