Climate Change and Conflict Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences Physicians for Social Responsibility
Feb 25, 2016
Climate Change and
Conflict
Cindy L. Parker MD, MPHJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Dept. of Environmental Health SciencesPhysicians for Social Responsibility
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Risk Factors for Conflict• Competition for scarce resources
– Population growth increases competition– availability of food and water sources
• Migration– Crossing cultural or national borders– Environmental refugees
• Partial democracy• Demographic & economic inequities • Gender inequality, youth bulge• Abundance of lootable resources
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The Resource Curse: Abundance as well as Scarcity Can Lead to Conflict
•Oil, timber, diamonds, gold, coltan
•Fungible, portable, lucrative
•Worth fighting over•Funding the fighting
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Water AvailabilityNow: • 2.3 billion people live in
water stressed areas • 1.7 billion live in water
scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas• 2.4 billion in water
scarce areas*
*UNEP**Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006
By 2100: With BAU climate change scenarios, nearly 1/3 of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought**
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Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts:
• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions
• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states
• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action
• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal
• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors
• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development
www.pacinst.org
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• Kenya: deforestation less rain and more run-off water scarcity hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars
• Most water conflict has been intra-national
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How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources
Climate Change
Deforestation
Degradation of farm land
erosion, nutrient depletion,
compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization
↑ runoff rates
Changed hydro cycles
transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation
patterns
Erosion, silting
More frequent droughts,
floods
Sea level riseExtreme weather
events
Infestation
Reduced irrigation capacity
Overuse, pollution of
water supplies
Coastal flooding, damage
water, food
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
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Environmental Scarcity and Conflict
Population growth
“Demand-induced scarcity”
Unequal resource access
“Structure-induced scarcity”
Increased environmental
scarcity
Migration, expulsion
Decreased economic
productivity
Weakened states
Ethnic conflicts
Coups d’état
Deprivation conflicts
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
↓ water, food
“Supply-induced scarcity”
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A Case Study: GazaSupply-induced Scarcity:• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters
– 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation
– Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer– Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage,
agricultural runoff, and saltwater• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply
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Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza
Demand-induced scarcity:
• Consumption: 160 million m³/year– Sustainable supply:
50-60 million m³/year• Population increases
– ~1.6 million people– Fertility rate 6%;
population growth rate 3.78%
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Structural Scarcity• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption
– Frozen at 1967 levels– Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person
• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure
• Uneven pricing schemes– Israeli settlers pay $0.10/m³– Palestinians pay $1.20/m³– Relative to income, Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli
settlers pay for water• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking
water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water– Families pay as much as 1/3 their monthly income for
water
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Environmental Scarcity and Conflict
Population growth
“Demand-induced scarcity”
Unequal resource access
“Structure-induced scarcity”
Increased environmental
scarcity
Migration, expulsion
Decreased economic
productivity
Weakened states
Ethnic conflicts
Coups d’état
Deprivation conflicts
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
↓ water, food
“Supply-induced scarcity”
Food Supply and Climate Change
• Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C in global average surface T°
• 2°C to 3°C likely; 3°C to 5°C possible• Therefore 20% to 30% likely;
30% to 50% possible• 2.5 billion people by 2050
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Global Food Production
Individual Food
SupplyDistribution
Access
CLIMATE CHANGE
AdaptationResilience vs Vulnerability
The Global Food System and Climate Change
Global Food
Supply
ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor
SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture
Global Food Production
SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture
ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor
Meat consumption PopulationTechnology ConflictPolicies Poverty/InequalityEconomic Development IncomeFood Prices Food Aid
Social, Political & Economic Factors
?
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2007 IPPC FAR; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php
The Arab Spring
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Syria Vegetation Health Index
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study on Syria, 2010
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Environmental Peacemaking• Scarce resources can be used as a tool• Cooperate to manage environmental
resources – transform insecurities and– create more peaceful relationships between
parties in dispute– overcome political tensions – promoting interaction, confidence building, and
technical cooperation
-Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Former Director Environmental Change and Security Program
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
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Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Pentagon
Engage scientific community to identify– Regions of high risk– Elements of climate change related risk
• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease– Elements of resilience
• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict?
• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict