Climate Change and Coffee Production: Vulnerability and ...World Coffee Conference 2010 Guatemala City 26-28 February Climate Change and Coffee Production: Vulnerability and possible

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World Coffee Conference 2010Guatemala City 26-28 February

Climate Change and Coffee Production: Vulnerability and possible adaptation

Eduardo Delgado AssadEmbrapa - Brazil

The growth rate of C02 is very high.There was no reduction emissions in recent years as the skeptics predicted,

in function on the economic crisis

2

y

9

10C

O2

Em

issi

ons

GT

C/y

7

8

C

5

6

Global Climate Scenarios for South America

Projections of temperature anomalies (oC) to South America for the period 2090-2099 (scenario A2) over the base period 1961-1990 for 15 different global IPCCclimate models.

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Global Climate Scenarios for South America

Projections of precipitation anomalies (mm/day) to South America for the period2090-2099 (scenario A2) over the base period 1961-1990 for 15 different globalIPCC climate models.

IPCC Model HadAMP3(Cox et al., 1999)

Downscaling Senarios IPCC A2, B2

Climatology1961‐90

PROBIO‐IPCC Global Models TAR (HadCM3)

Regional Modelss

Scenarios of Climate

Climatology regional model 1961‐90

RegCM3HadRM3 Eta CCS

Scenarios of Climate change Maps (Regional multimodel ensemble)

2071‐2100, A2, B2

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Tmax (Precis‐A2) 2010 – average 1960‐1990

Global Warming Scenarios in Brazil

8 a 6.5

6 a 5

[⁰C]

4.5 a 3

2.5 a 1.5

1 a 0

‐0.5 a ‐2



8 a 6.5

6 a 5

[⁰C]

4.5 a 3

2.5 a 1.5

1 a 0

‐0.5 a ‐2

5



8 a 6.5

6 a 5

[⁰C]

4.5 a 3

2.5 a 1.5

1 a 0

‐0.5 a ‐2



8 a 6.5

6 a 5

[⁰C]

4.5 a 3

2.5 a 1.5

1 a 0

‐0.5 a ‐2

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A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA

AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL E A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA NO BRASIL – 2008

y = 0,0091x - 17,804R2 0 3843

1,9

2,4

M édia Anual

M édia M óvel 5 anos

Temperature Variation Pelotas-RS

R2 = 0,3843

-1 1

-0,6

-0,1

0,4

0,9

1,4

M édia M óvel 5 anos

Tmin= 1ºC

Tmin= 1,6ºC

-2,1

-1,6

1,1

Anos

50 years 13 years

From: Marcos S. Wrege & Flavio G. Herter – EMBRAPA Agroclimatology Lab. in Pelotas (2007)

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A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA

AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL E A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA NO BRASIL – 2008Phd UFLA - J. P. R. A. D. BARBOSA (2008)

A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLACampinas - SP

60

70

20

30

40

50

Fre

qu

ênci

a A

bso

luta

Tmin<10ºC

AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL E A NOVA GEOGRAFIA DA PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA NO BRASIL – 2008

0

10

1890

1896

1902

1908

1914

1920

1929

1935

1941

1947

1953

1959

1965

1971

1977

1983

1989

1995

2001

2007

Ano From CEPAGRI/UNICAMP-2008

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Coffea Arabica Impacts

CEPAGRI/UNICAMP-EMBRAPA CNPTIA

•Air Temperature

Conditions to simulations

Air Temperature•Average Annual:

• 18oC and 22oC - Good• Greater than 23oC – Chance to floral

abortion• Min. absolute annual:

• Less than 1oC: Frost probability > 30%•Water deficit < 150 mm/y (80%)

Parâmetros: A. P.de Camargo-IAC

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Star FlowersCandle BudsT>34oC

Day 29/09/2009 temperature 33oC

From: Embrapa Cerrados- Brasilia-2009

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Impacts Simulation to Coffea Arabica Risks Zoning

Arabica Coffee

need irrigation

Low risk

Irrigation recommended

Actual Zonnig


Frost risk

High temperature Risk

High climatic risk

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Arabica Coffee

2020 Y2020 Year

9,48%

Prejuízo em milhões

Área de baixo risco

need irrigation

Low risk

Irrigation recommendedR$ 882,6


Frost risk


High climatic risk

Arabica Coffee

2050 Year

17,15%

Prejuízo em bilhões

Área de baixo risco

need irrigation

Low risk

Irrigation recommendedR$ 1,6


Frost risk


High climatic risk

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In the others Countries – Colombia and Vietnã

Scenarios to Climate ChangeTemperature 2020‐2029 Cenário A2

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Scenario to climate changeTemperature 2090-2099 Cenário A2

Scenario to climate change – Precipitation JJA

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IPCC (AR4)‐ ReportIPCC AR4 Brasil Colômbia Vietnã

Prec DJF 2099 -05 a 10% 10 a 20% 05 a 20%

Prec JJA 2099 -30 a -10% 05 a 10% 05 a 10%

Temp B1 2029 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC

Temp A1B 2029 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC

Temp A2 2029 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC 0,5 a 1,0ºC

Temp B1 2099 2,0 a 2,5ºC 2,0 a 2,5ºC 1,5 a 2,0ºC

Temp A1B 2099 2,5 a 4,0ºC 3,0 a 3,5ºC 2,5 a 3,0ºC

Temp A2 2099 3,5 a 4,5ºC 3,5 a 4,5ºC 3,0 a 3,5ºC

Adaptation actions

Tree in coffee production

Some producers in São Paulo and Minas Gerais have used mango trees, avocado treesrubber trees, banana trees and coconut trees. Not a high number of trees per hectare is needed, only enough to make the shade, with around 60 to 70 shaded plants per hectare.

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Tree in CoffeeProduction canIncrease the Carbon absortion

Carbon inSoil Coffeeproduction

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions now and in the next years

-Mulching to reduce evaporation, avoid erosion and improve soil fertility.Terracing/contouring, drainage and trapping/storing run-off rain water.

-Plating contours to mitigate wind and water damage;

-Improving access to climate data to monitoring coffee production

-Mapping potential climate change impact on coffee in local areas

-Improving soil fertility

-Examining different production modelsExamining different production models

-Developing planting disease resistence -Developing drought resistant varieties-Developing high temperature tolerance varieties

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The challenge of global warming, brings a new dimension to future production of coffee.More technology, more and more professional organization Not It will be the end of the coffee production organization. Not It will be the end of the coffee production, but the beginning of new times. We must be prepared.

Obrigado,Thanks, Gracias, Merci

Eduardo Delgado [email protected]

Climate Change and Coffee Production: Vulnerability and ...World Coffee Conference 2010 Guatemala City 26-28 February Climate Change and Coffee Production: Vulnerability and possible

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