Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T. Watson MA Board Co-chair Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC SBSTA, Montreal November 30, 2005.

Climate Change and Biodiversity

Robert T. Watson

MA Board Co-chair

Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC

SBSTA, Montreal

November 30, 2005

Key design features of the MA

Political

legitimacy

MA

CBDCBDCBDCBDCCDCCDCCDCCDRamsarRamsarRamsarRamsarSTRPSTRP CSTCST SBSTTASBSTTA

MA

Authorized by four conventions and UN

Follows IPCC procedures

Focus strongly shaped by audienceStrong sub-global features

FCCCFCCCFCCCFCCC

IPCCIPCCIPCCIPCC

SBSTASBSTA

Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments

Scientific credibility

Utility

CMSCMSCMSCMSSCSC

MA Facts

Number of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios, Responses, Sub-global): 4Number of chapters: 81Number of pages (all publications): ~3,000 Number of experts preparing the assessment: 1,360 (including 50 young

fellows)Number of countries with experts involved: 95Number of Review Editors: 80Reviews solicited from: 185 countries through 600 national focal pointsReviews solicited from: 2,516 expertsNumber of individual review comments received (and responded to): 20,745 Most individual comments on one chapter: 850 comments (66 pages) on

Biodiversity responses chapter.Amount raised: $17 millionAnnual cost as percent of US Global Climate Change Research Budget: 0.2%Estimated total cost (including in-kind contributions of experts): $25 million

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological

drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade,

market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and

institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action

Life on Earth: Biodiversity

MA Conceptual Framework

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

CulturalNon-material benefits from ecosystems

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided by ecosystems

What was unique?

Ecosystem services

Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand

Converting an ecosystem means losing Converting an ecosystem means losing some services and gaining others – e.g., some services and gaining others – e.g., A mangrove ecosystem: A mangrove ecosystem:

cropscrops

shrimpshrimp

housinghousing

Provides nursery and adult habitat Provides nursery and adult habitat ,,Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps sediment; detoxifies traps sediment; detoxifies pollutants;pollutants;protects coastline from erosion & protects coastline from erosion & disasterdisaster

The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversion

Conversion may still occur because private economic benefits are often greater for the converted system

Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Core Questions

1. What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change?

2. What are the consequences of ecosystem change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human-well being?

3. How might ecosystems and their services change over the next 50 years?

4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contributions to human well-being?

Order from Strength

Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration

TechnoGarden

Globalization Regionalization

World DevelopmentE

nvi

ron

men

tal

Man

agem

ent

Pro

activ

e

R

eact

ive

MA Scenarios

Main Findings

1. Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years

2. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals

3. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed.

The Balance Sheet – to date

CropsLivestockAquacultureCarbon sequestration

Capture fisheriesWild foodsWood fuelGenetic resourcesBiochemicalsFresh WaterAir quality regulationRegional & local climate

regulationErosion regulationWater purificationPest regulationPollinationNatural Hazard

regulationSpiritual & religious Aesthetic values

TimberFiberWater regulationDisease regulationRecreation & ecotourism

Enhanced Degraded Mixed

Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded

Provisioning services are being enhanced at the cost of regulating & cultural services

Climate and Biodiversity

Key conclusions regarding the interactions between climate and biodiversity

Key Conclusions

There is wide recognition that human-induced climate change is a serious environmental and development issue and in conjunction with other stresses threatens ecological systems and their biodiversity

The Earth is warming, with most of the warming of the last 50 years attributable to human activities; precipitation patterns are changing, and sea level is rising. The global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last 100 years, and is projected to increase by a further 1.4–5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation have already changed and are projected to change even more in the future, with an increasing incidence of floods and droughts. Sea levels have already risen 10–25 cm during the last 100 years and are projected to rise an additional 8–88 cm by 2100

Observed changes in climate have already affected ecological, social, and economic systems, and the achievement of sustainable development is threatened by projected changes in climate.

Trends in Drivers

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change

Temperate Broadleaf Forest

Tropical Dry Forest

Tropical Grasslands

Tropical Coniferous Forest

Mediterranean Forests

Tropical Moist Forest

0 50 100

Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

Habitat Loss to 1990Habitat Loss to 2050 under MA Scenarios

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Temperate Grasslands & Woodlands

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Temperature Change (oC) from 1990

1.5 – 5.7 oC

Source: IPCC 2001

Hot Spots of Biodiversity

Climate change challenges the concept of small isolated protected areas

Change in Species Diversity

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Fossil Recent Future

Number per Thousand Species

Extinctions(per thousand years)

100 to 1000-fold increase

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 >95

BRAZIL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 >95

INDIA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 >95

CHINA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 >95

RUSSIA

Climate impacts on cereal production capacity,ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple cropping

Recent Findings (post MA)

• Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change

• A number of increased concerns have arisen: Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb

carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain

An increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching

Reversal of the land carbon sink – possible by the end of the Century

A regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above pre-industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap – impacting all coastal ecosystems and human settlements

Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3oC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instability

The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down: one study suggested that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a collapse within 200 years, while another study suggested a 30% chance of a shut down within 100 years

The Risks of Climate Change Damages Increase with the Magnitude of Climate Change

Key Conclusions

Based on the current understanding of the climate system, and the response of different ecological and socioeconomic systems, if significant global adverse changes to ecosystems are to be avoided, the best guidance that can currently be given suggests that efforts be made to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to limit the rate of change to less than 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.

This will require that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide be limited to about 450 parts per million and the emissions of other greenhouse gases stabilized or reduced

This optimistically assumes that the climate sensitivity factor is in the middle or lower end of the range (1.5-4.5 degrees C)

Recent Findings (post MA)

• Probability analysis suggests that to limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below 400ppm

• Stabilization of the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide at

450ppm would imply a medium likelihood of staying below 2oC above pre-industrial levels

• If the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide were to rise to 550ppm it is unlikely that warming would stay below 2oC above pre-industrial levels

• The World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 63% over 2002 levels by 2030. This means that in the absence of urgent and strenuous actions to reduce GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world will almost certainly be committed to a warming of between 0.5oC and 2oC relative to today by 2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above pre-industrial

Key Conclusions

If a long-term target were to be established, intermediate targets and an equitable allocation of emissions would be needed

The technologies of today (energy production and use, carbon capture and storage, and biological sequestration) can put us on the right track until about 2050, but significant improvements will be needed after this time, hence the need for an aggressive energy R&D program

Realizing the technical potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will involve the development and implementation of supporting institutions and policies to overcome barriers to the diffusion of these technologies into the marketplace, increased public and private sector funding for research and development, and effective technology transfer

Such a target will send a strong signal to the private sector, governments and the research community that there will be a market for climate-friendly technologies

Warming resulting from different stabilised concentrations of greenhouse gases: pre-industrialized level - 280 ppm, current level - 370 ppm

Temperature change relative to 1990 (C)

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

450 550 650 750 850 950 1000

Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)

Temperature change in the year 2100

Temperature change relative to 1990 (C )

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

450 550 650 750 850 950 1000

Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)

Temperature change at equilibrium

Key Conclusions: Adaptation

• Adverse consequences of climate change can be reduced by adaptation measures, but cannot be completely eliminated

·Even with best-practice management it is inevitable that some species will be lost, some ecosystems irreversibly modified, and some environmental goods and services adversely affected

• Assess and act upon threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change

• Adaptation to climate change must be part of the development process and not separated from it – must be integrated into national economic planning

• Existing capacities, (national governments to local communities) which are often weak, form the starting point for anticipatory adaptation actions

• The capacity to adapt is closely related to how society develops with respect to technological capability, level of income and type of governance

Findings and data: MAweb.org & Island Press

PublicationsSynthesis Reports Synthesis Board Statement Biodiversity Synthesis Wetlands Synthesis Health Synthesis Desertification Synthesis Business Synthesis

Technical Volumes and MA Conceptual Framework (Island Press)

Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment

State and Trends Scenarios Multi-Scale Assessments Responses

Synthesis Reports Board Statement

MA Conceptual Framework Technical Assessment Volumes