Climate Change and Aquaculture - Eurofish.dk · Climate change and aquaculture 2. Impact of climate change on aquaculture –Drivers –Vulnerability –Adaptation 1. Contributions

Climate Change and Aquaculture

Graham Mair (FAO)Lionel Dabbadie (FAO/CIRAD)

Eradicate hunger, foodInsecurity and malnutrition

Eliminate rural poverty through socio-economic development

Manage and sustainably usenatural resources

FAO’s mandate:Lead global efforts to eliminate poverty and hunger

Aquaculture is critical to future seafood supply

• Aquaculture will supply future growth in seafood production for foreseeable future

• Aquaculture production is primarily in the developing world

Climate change and aquaculture

2. Impact of climate change on aquaculture

– Drivers

– Vulnerability

– Adaptation

1. Contributions of aquaculture to climate change?

https://grimstad.uia.no/puls/climatechange/nng01/02nng01.htm

1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 3 6 83 5 4 7

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4436

6157

61

99105

37 7 10

6 9 8 7 10

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20

40

60

80

100

120

Number of published scientific papers per year dealing with aquaculture and climate change in Scopus and FAO databases, as a proxy of interest in the issue

Number of publications in Scopus

Number of FAO publications

Contributions of Aquaculture to climate change

• Greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases)

• Rising emissions– Burning fossil fuels– Deforestation– Livestock farming– Fertilizers– Fluorinated gases

• Land use

• Transport

• There are other environmental costs of agri/aquaculture

Planet has already warmed 0.85°C, target to limit <2°C

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EAT-Lancet Report

https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/

Environmental effects per serving of food produced

Environmental effects of food production

https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/

Aquaculture vs Wild catch

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tilapia in cages in lakesSalmon in Norway

Salmon in ChileSalmon in UK

Vietnamese Pangasius pondsTrout flow through

Trout RAS FranceSeabass cages

Turbot RASMussel Rafts

Cod in NorwayCod gillnet (Sweden)

Cod trawling (Sweden)Cod in Denmark

Plaice in DenmarkCod Flyshoot (NL)Plaice twinrig (NL)

GWP (kg CO2 eq/kg of fillet)

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Rasenberg et al, IMARES, 2013

Aquaculture systems

Relative GHG emissions decrease with increasing intensity of production

N2O

MethaneCO2

Yuan et al, Nature Climate Change 9, 2019

Key Message

Although aquaculture is not benign with regard to contributions to greenhouse gases its impacts on climate change are not likely to be significant

relative to other impacts on the environment and the relative impacts of other forms of

agriculture.

Direct impacts of climate change onaquaculture

Direct drivers of

change

Warming

Ocean acidification

Hypoxia

Distributional shifts

Sea level rise

Currents, circulation and wind

Extreme events

Disease and algal

blooms

Mix of +ve and –ve impacts Primarily -ve impacts

Warming

Italy (Verona):• Temps rising @ .35C per decade• +2.5C by 2050• 40+ days pa over 35C by 2100

EEA Climate report 2012

BBC, 2018

The Guardian, 2019

Warming – Biological effectsPositive impacts

+ Increased growth rate & production efficiency

+ Shorter production cycles, improved FCR = profit↑

Negative impacts- Shift away from culture of species

with narrow thermal range

- Increased sensitivity to other drivers (e.g. pathogens)

- Harmful algal blooms

Neutral/indeterminate impacts

• Increased plankton respiration/ proliferation

• Mollusc spatfall changes

• Changes in reproduction & sex ratios

• Increased/decreased diseasetransmissionPerson-Le Ruyet et al, 2004. Aquaculture

Effect and adaptation

Effect

• New areas become favourable for aquaculture, others become unfavourable

• Will need increased monitoring of key environmental variables

• The most resilient and temperature labile species may develop on scale

Adaptation

• Shift to species/strains with higher thermal tolerance (genetic selection for adaptation)

• Shifting farms to higher latitudes or cooler deeper offshore and inland areas

• Adjusting farm calendars

• Climate smart farms (e.g. deeper ponds)

• Long term spatial planning

Extreme Events are already happening in > frequency

** *

*

**

*

**

*

* Potentially most impactful on aquaculture

www.carbonbrief.org

Extreme events – Impact & Adaptation

Negative impacts- Impacts on water quality

- Mass mortalities or losses

- Increased sensitivity to other drivers

- Supply of inputs or market access disrupted

- Loss of infrastructure

- ↑hazards to workers

- Loss of livelihoods

- Eutrophication, pollution, erosion/silting, FW run off, escapes

Adaptation measures

• Shift towards more tolerant species

• Ensure safety at work (followguidelines)

• Shift to shorter production cycles ↓ reduce risk

• Shift to indoor RAS systems

• Invest in water efficient technology

• Invest on more robust infrastructure

• Relocate farms away exposed sites (↑ spatial planning)

• Certification systems/standards

• Investment in mitigation measures

Sea level rise

• The sea level has been rising for some time

• Rates of rise likely to increase

• Mean sea levels predicted to rise 0.4-0.7m by 2100

• Spatial distribution of sea level rise not even

EEA Climate report 2012, EEA.Europa.eu (2017)

Sea level rise

Negative impacts- Saline intrusion may ↓growth,

↑increase mortality, ↑sensitivity

- Displacement of people

- Loss of physical protection, ↑exposure

- Loss of intertidal areas

- Coastal erosion

- Flooding of coastal rivers

- Shift of activities upstream

+ New opportunities for coastal aquaculture

Adaptation

• Shift towards natural or selected saline tolerant freshwater species/strains

• Shift towards euryhalineestuarine or marine species

• Mainstream ecosystem approach to aquaculture

• Support local governance engaging aquaculture stakeholders

• Invest in protection infrastructure (e.g. dams/dykes)

• Mainstream spatial planning

In-direct impacts of climate change onaquaculture

In-Direct drivers of

change

Uncertainty

Water shortage

Impacts on fisheries

Impacts on agriculture

National adaptation

plans

EEA

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Effects of climate change are and will be real and should be factored into aquaculture planning & development

• Aquaculture will not be a major factor impacting on climate change

• Significant effects will arise from interrelated impacts of: warming, ocean acidification, hypoxia, sea level rise, extreme events, distributional shift, disease and algal blooms

• Impacts will be on: productivity/profitability, species choice/dominance, sensitivity, HABs, disease, reproduction, relocation, losses

• Adaptations will need to include: Species shifts/selective breeding for adaptation, modifying and changing systems and management, spatial planning, modifying infrastructure and certification

Seaweed farming, Kiribati

Tilapia ponds, Egypt

Thank you!

[email protected]@fao.org

Direct and Indirect impacts of climate change will have +ve and –ve impacts on aquaculture

over different time and spatial scales