Climate Change and Agriculture in the South-West Coastal of Bangladesh Presented By- Malay Krishna Madhu Student Id:1009282004 & SK. Abu Jahid Student.

Climate Change and Agriculture in the South-West Coastal of

Bangladesh

Presented By-Malay Krishna Madhu

Student Id:1009282004&

SK. Abu Jahid Student Id:1009282005

Introduction• Climate change (CC) is the most alarming issue facing the

world today. • The consequences of climate variability and CC are potentially

more significant for the poor in developing countries .• The impact of CC on agriculture will be huge and substantive.• Coastal people are highly exposed to a range of natural

hazards, from storms and cyclones to widespread flooding and coastal erosion

Year Mean Temperature Change (0C)

Mean Rainfall Change(mm)

Sea Level Rise(cm)

Annual Dec, Jan, Feb

June, July Aug

Annual

Dec, Jan, Feb

June, July Aug

Baseline Average 2030

1.0 1.1 0.8 +3.8 -1.2 +4.7 14

2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 +5.6 -1.7 +6.8 322.4 2.7 1.9 +9.7 -3.0 +11.8 88

Source: Agrawala et al 2003:IPCC2001, 2007

Table: Potential Change of Climatic Variability

Objectives of the Study

• To know the present scenarios of the climate change (CC) impacts on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh.

• To identify the potential impacts of climate change (CC) on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh

Methodology

• Firstly relevant recent papers, Journals of the CC and the report of IPCC are reviewed.

•Then the driving forces of CC have been identified.

•There after the damaging events of CC and its associated impacts on agriculture have been recognized.

• And finally, the potentialimpacts of CC on agriculture mainly crop production are predicted.

Figure: The overall methodology of study

Results and Discussion

Floods

• Flood affects agricultural production considerably.

• Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Cro

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Crop Damage Area inundated

• The flood in1988 caused reduction of agricultural production by some 45 percent.

• In 1998, Aman production potential of some 2 to 2.3 Mha could not be realized.

Source: Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: Consequences on Development, 2009

Figure : Crop damage (MT) due to historical flood

Cyclones-Storm Surges• In terms of CC, 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures

could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10 percent

• Cyclones bring severe winds, storm surges, and flood that impact on lives, crops and property.

• Cyclone SIDR, on 15 November 2007, struck the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh and total damage for the crops sub sector is estimated at about BDT 28.4 billion. The loss of ‐production in all crops is 1.3 million metric tons, of which 63 percent (0.8 million metric tons) is aman rice.

• Cyclone AILA, which struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on May 25, 2009 amount of damaged crops is estimated to be 340,660 acres.

Results and Discussion (cont….)

Sea Level Rise-Salinity intrusion

• Salinity intrusion would be a more acute problem in the South-West coastal region.

• The South-West coastal region of Bangladesh would experience severe drainage congestion due to 62cm sea-level rise and embankments will be overtopped due to increased water level in the peripheral rivers.

• The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be significant on coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for public water supply will fall.

• On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas.

Results and Discussion (cont….)

The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

• Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased backwater effects would increase frequency of such devastating floods under climate change scenarios. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production.

• On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas.

• Changes in climate may affect irrigation requirements for all the three cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif-I, and Kharif-II. Increase in temperature will lead to escalating irrigation demands by 200 Mm3 for March only

Results and Discussion (cont….)

The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….)

Simulation HYV Aus HYV Aman HYV Boro Wheat

(‘000’ tones)

PercentChange

(‘000’ tones)

PercentChange

(‘000’ tones)

PercentChange

(‘000’ tones

PercentChange

Baseline(1994-95) 702 0 4,484 0 6,200 0 890 0

CCCM 512 -27 4,170 -7 6,014 -3 712 -20

GFDL 512 -27 3,901 -13 5,766 -7 347 -61

330 ppmv CO2+20C 569 -19 3,901 -13 5,952 -4 561 -37

330 ppmv CO2+40C 435 -38 3,363 -25 5,766 -7 285 -68

580 ppmv CO2+00C 920 31 5,605 -25 7,626 23 1,228 38

580 ppmv CO2+20C 793 13 4,977 11 7,440 20 881 -1

580 ppmv CO2+40C 660 -6 4,529 1 7,192 16 534 -40

660 ppmv CO2+00C 983 40 5,964 33 8,060 30 1,317 48

660 ppmv CO2+20C 856 22 5,336 19 7,874 27 970 9

660 ppmv CO2+40C 730 4 4,888 9 7,626 23 614 -31

Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Source: Karim et al., 1998

Scenario

Crop Yields Sea Level Rise Flooding

CurrentClimate

In 1988, yields were down45% because of flooding.

2020 Based on interpolation of published data to be consistent with climate change scenarios; rice yields have increases of up to 5%.With less optimistic assumptions about the CO2 fertilization effect, generally have yield change -5% to +1%.

Based on interpolation, a 0.1 m SLR would inundate 0.2 MMT of production < 1% of current total.

Monsoonal floods increase yield loss.

2050 Based on interpolation of published data to be consistent with climate change scenarios; rice yields have increases of up to 10%.With less optimistic assumptions about the CO2 fertilization effect, generally yield changes from few percent increase to 10% decrease. Pests and crop disease could reduce yields further.

0.3 SLR inundate0.5 MMT of production ~2% of current total.

Monsoonal floods increase yield loss.

The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….)Table: The potential impact of Sea Level Rise and Flooding on Crop Yield

Source: World Bank ,2006

Conclusion• Floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges and Sea level rise and Salinity intrusion are the

continuing features of the South-West region of Bangladesh.

• Crop production is more vulnerable sector in the coastal region. Developing countries like Bangladesh is not responsible for CC, but they are severely affected.

• On the other hand, developed countries are main culprit for CC. If the situation is continued 17% of the total area of Bangladesh will be inundated.

• For resolving the potential impact of CC as soon as possible the developed countries must be reached in a commitment, that they stop the responsible activities of CC.

• To cope with the present situation of CC in agriculture sector of Bangladesh, research should be conducted for introducing of salinity and flood tolerant variety of rice. Otherwise, the food security will be hampered in the near future.

Recommendations

• New agricultural practices, such as floating bed cultivation system

• Carry out research on new varieties e.g. Saline and flood tolerant crops

• Coastal dykes to protect flood damage

• Conference of the Parties (COP-15) did not provide as our expectation, in the next conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP-16 have to raise our voice.

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THANKS TO ALL