Climate Change 3 - Metropolitan Transportation Commission · Climate Summit: Key Messages • Climate change is a serious problem globally and locally • Our actions will affect

Climate ChangeClimate Changeandand

The Bay AreaThe Bay Area

Joint Policy CommitteeJoint Policy CommitteeClimate Change WorkshopsClimate Change WorkshopsFebruary 16February 16thth and 23and 23rdrd, 2007, 2007

Climate Summit:Climate Summit:Key MessagesKey Messages

•• Climate change is a serious problem globally and Climate change is a serious problem globally and locallylocally

•• Our actions will affect how much the climate Our actions will affect how much the climate ultimately changesultimately changes

•• The Bay Area has been a leader and will The Bay Area has been a leader and will continue to be a leader in climate protectioncontinue to be a leader in climate protection

•• Working together, the Bay Area will be a model Working together, the Bay Area will be a model for California, the nation and the world.for California, the nation and the world.

Local Consequences:Local Consequences:By the End of the CenturyBy the End of the Century

NANA55%55%1010--35%35%Increase in large Increase in large fire riskfire risk

20%20%11%11%33--6%6%Increase in Increase in electricity electricity demanddemand

33--4X4X22--2.5X2.5X11--2X2XHeatwaveHeatwave daysdays

2222--30”30”1414--22”22”66--14”14”Sea level riseSea level rise

90%90%7070--80%80%3030--60%60%Snow pack lossSnow pack loss

8.08.0--10.410.4°°5.55.5--7.97.9°°3.03.0--5.45.4°°Temperature Temperature riserise

HigherHigher(970 (970 ppmppm))

MediumMedium--HighHigh(830 (830 ppmppm))

LowerLower(550 (550 ppmppm))

Emission Emission ScenarioScenario

Source: California Climate Action TeamSource: California Climate Action Team

…or Earlier

Local Consequences:Local Consequences:Decreasing Snow PackDecreasing Snow Pack

Source: California Climate Change CenterSource: California Climate Change CenterSource: California Climate Change Center

Local Consequences:Local Consequences:Wildfire FrequencyWildfire Frequency

Source: California Climate Change CenterSource: California Climate Change CenterSource: California Climate Change Center

Local Consequences:Local Consequences:SeaSea--level Rise and the Baylevel Rise and the Bay

Source: Pacific Institute

Source: BCDCSource: BCDC

Local Consequences:Local Consequences:SeaSea--level Rise and the Baylevel Rise and the Bay

Source: BCDCSource: BCDC

SFOSFO

Oakland AirportOakland Airport

Contributors:Contributors:COCO22 Emissions per CapitaEmissions per Capita

0 5 10 15 20U.S.

Canada

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Russia

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

South Korea

South Africa

Italy

Spain

France

Ukraine

Iran

China

Mexico

Brazil

All Other

India

Metric Tons/Year0 5 10 15 20

U.S.

Canada

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Russia

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

South Korea

South Africa

Italy

Spain

France

Ukraine

Iran

China

Mexico

Brazil

All Other

India

Metric Tons/Year

Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Contributors:Contributors:COCO22 Emissions per CapitaEmissions per Capita

China

U.S.

0 5 10 15 20U.S.

Canada

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Russia

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

South Korea

South Africa

Italy

Spain

France

Ukraine

Iran

China

Mexico

Brazil

All Other

India

Metric Tons/Year

China

U.S.

0 5 10 15 20U.S.

Canada

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Russia

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

South Korea

South Africa

Italy

Spain

France

Ukraine

Iran

China

Mexico

Brazil

All Other

India

Metric Tons/Year

Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Contributors:Contributors:COCO22 Emissions per CapitaEmissions per Capita

0 5 10 15 20

U.S.

California

Bay Area

World

Metric Tons/Year0 5 10 15 20

U.S.

California

Bay Area

World

Metric Tons/Year

Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMDSources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMDSources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD

Contributors:Contributors:World World GHGsGHGs

Transportation Fuels14%

Industrial Processes17%

Power Stations22%

Waste Disposal3% Land use and biomass

burning10%

Residential, commerical and other sources

10%

Fossil fuel retrieval, processing and

distribution11%

Agricultural byproducts13%

Transportation Fuels14%

Industrial Processes17%

Power Stations22%

Waste Disposal3% Land use and biomass

burning10%

Residential, commerical and other sources

10%

Fossil fuel retrieval, processing and

distribution11%

Agricultural byproducts13%

Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Contributors:Contributors:California California GHGsGHGs

Ag. & Forestry8%

Electrical Power20%

Industrial23%

Others8%

Transportation41%

Ag. & Forestry8%

Electrical Power20%

Industrial23%

Others8%

Transportation41%

Source: California Climate Action TeamSource: California Climate Action TeamSource: California Climate Action Team

Contributors:Contributors:Bay Area Bay Area GHGsGHGs

Transportation50%

Indust./Comm.26%

Local Electricity Generation

7%

Oil Refining6%

Domestic11%

Transportation50%

Indust./Comm.26%

Local Electricity Generation

7%

Oil Refining6%

Domestic11%Source: BAAQMDSource: BAAQMDSource: BAAQMD

Contributors:Contributors:GHGsGHGs ComparedCompared

World

Trans.14%

Other86%

World

Trans.14%

Other86%

CaliforniaTrans.41%

Other59%CaliforniaTrans.

41%

Other59%

Bay AreaTrans.50%

Other50%Bay AreaTrans.

50%Other50%

Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMDSources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD

Contributors:Contributors:Bay Area Transportation Bay Area Transportation GHGsGHGs

On Road Vehicles85%

Other Mobile8%

Aircraft7%

On Road Vehicles85%

Other Mobile8%

Aircraft7%

Source: BAAQMDSource: BAAQMD

State Targets:State Targets:

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)

Actual and Projected Emissions

2020 Target

2010 Target

2020 Target2020 Target

2010 Target2010 Target

Source: California Climate Action TeamSource: California Climate Action Team

Strategies:Strategies:The State’s Initial Top SixThe State’s Initial Top Six

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Vehicle Standards

Smart Land Use & IntelligentTransportation

Afforestration/Reforestration

Accelerated RenewableEnergy

Transportation Efficiency

Municipal Electricity

GHG Reduction (Millions of Metric Tons/Year)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Vehicle Standards

Smart Land Use & IntelligentTransportation

Afforestration/Reforestration

Accelerated RenewableEnergy

Transportation Efficiency

Municipal Electricity

GHG Reduction (Millions of Metric Tons/Year)

California Climate Action TeamCalifornia Climate Action TeamCalifornia Climate Action Team

Strategies:Strategies:Beyond Emission StandardsBeyond Emission Standards

Source: MTCSource: MTCSource: MTC

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 2000 2010 2020Year

1990

=100

Baseline VMT

Baseline CO2

CO2 New CAFÉ

CO2 Pavley

C02 State 2020Goal

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 2000 2010 2020Year

1990

=100

Baseline VMT

Baseline CO2

CO2 New CAFÉ

CO2 Pavley

C02 State 2020Goal

Strategies:Strategies:Smart Growth & TransportationSmart Growth & Transportation

•• Highly beneficial, and Highly beneficial, and necessarynecessary

•• But not sufficientBut not sufficient——at at least in the short termleast in the short term

•• Big difference in the Big difference in the long termlong term

•• But we will need more But we will need more to meet 2020 targetto meet 2020 target

•• 1% annual growth1% annual growth•• In any year, 99% of In any year, 99% of

development is a development is a givengiven

Strategies:Strategies:Smart Growth & ElectricitySmart Growth & Electricity

•• Temperature Temperature gradient: as much as gradient: as much as a degree per milea degree per mile

•• Synergy: reduced Synergy: reduced energy for cooling + energy for cooling + reduced energy for reduced energy for transportationtransportation

Strategies:Strategies:Real Innovation RequiredReal Innovation Required

•• Targets are aggressiveTargets are aggressive•• No silver bulletNo silver bullet•• Will require multiple changes, some fundamentalWill require multiple changes, some fundamental•• Business as usual will not be good enoughBusiness as usual will not be good enough•• Some strategies will be relatively painlessSome strategies will be relatively painless•• Many will be difficult, costly, and contentiousMany will be difficult, costly, and contentious•• Either way, it will be a very different worldEither way, it will be a very different world•• Some impacts are inevitableSome impacts are inevitable•• It will be tough but doableIt will be tough but doable

Strategies:Strategies:JPC ApproachJPC Approach

•• Complete by May 18, 2007Complete by May 18, 2007•• Concentrate on regional solutionsConcentrate on regional solutions•• Consider both preventative and adaptive Consider both preventative and adaptive

actionsactions•• Do not limit actions to present authoritiesDo not limit actions to present authorities

Four Regional Agencies:Four Regional Agencies:1.1. Association of Bay Area Association of Bay Area

Governments (ABAG)Governments (ABAG)2.2. Bay Area Air Quality Bay Area Air Quality

Management District (Air Management District (Air District)District)

3.3. Bay Conservation and Bay Conservation and Development Commission Development Commission (BCDC)(BCDC)

4.4. Metropolitan Metropolitan Transportation Transportation Commission (MTC)Commission (MTC)

ABAGABAGRegional Role:Regional Role:

•• Provide comprehensive regional planningProvide comprehensive regional planning•• Strengthen cooperation and coordination Strengthen cooperation and coordination

among local governmentsamong local governments•• Address issues that transcend local Address issues that transcend local

bordersborders

ABAGABAGClimate InitiativesClimate Initiatives::

•• Smart Growth/FOCUS Smart Growth/FOCUS •• Energy WatchEnergy Watch•• Green BusinessGreen Business

Air DistrictAir DistrictRegional Role:Regional Role:

•• Attain and maintain air quality standardsAttain and maintain air quality standards•• Regulate stationary sourcesRegulate stationary sources•• Administer incentive programs for mobile Administer incentive programs for mobile

sourcessources•• Coordinate regional air quality plansCoordinate regional air quality plans

Air DistrictAir DistrictClimate InitiativesClimate Initiatives::

•• Climate Protection Summit (November Climate Protection Summit (November 2006)2006)

•• Regional GHG Inventory (first in Regional GHG Inventory (first in California)California)

•• Climate Protection Grant ProgramClimate Protection Grant Program•• Leadership CouncilLeadership Council•• Outreach CampaignOutreach Campaign•• Integration with District ActivitiesIntegration with District Activities

BCDCBCDCRegional Role:Regional Role:

•• Protect and enhance San Francisco Bay Protect and enhance San Francisco Bay resourcesresources

•• Require maximum feasible public access Require maximum feasible public access to and along shorelineto and along shoreline

•• Regulate development in the Bay and Regulate development in the Bay and along the Suisun Marshalong the Suisun Marsh

BCDCBCDCClimate Initiatives:Climate Initiatives:

•• SeaSea--level rise studylevel rise study•• Prevention and adaptation: evaluation and Prevention and adaptation: evaluation and

strategystrategy

MTCMTCRegional Role:Regional Role:

•• Plan, finance and coordinate regional Plan, finance and coordinate regional transportation investments and programstransportation investments and programs

•• Administer toll bridges through Bay Area Administer toll bridges through Bay Area Toll Authority (BATA)Toll Authority (BATA)

•• Provide transportation information through Provide transportation information through 511511

MTCMTCClimate Initiatives:Climate Initiatives:

•• Smart GrowthSmart Growth–– TLC/HIPTLC/HIP–– TODTOD–– FOCUSFOCUS

•• Transit ExpansionsTransit Expansions•• Maintenance EmphasisMaintenance Emphasis•• New Regional Transportation PlanNew Regional Transportation Plan

Climate Summit:Climate Summit:Key MessagesKey Messages

•• Climate change is a serious problem globally and Climate change is a serious problem globally and locallylocally

•• Our actions will affect how much the climate Our actions will affect how much the climate ultimately changesultimately changes

•• The Bay Area has been a leader and will The Bay Area has been a leader and will continue to be a leader in climate protectioncontinue to be a leader in climate protection

•• Working together, the Bay Area will be a model Working together, the Bay Area will be a model for California, the nation and the world.for California, the nation and the world.

Five Areas for DiscussionFive Areas for Discussion

1.1. PartnershipPartnership2.2. LeadershipLeadership3.3. Transportation and Land UseTransportation and Land Use4.4. AdaptationAdaptation5.5. NearNear--Term ActionsTerm Actions

1. Partnerships1. Partnerships

How can the four regional agencies How can the four regional agencies specifically help your city, business or specifically help your city, business or community group to move forward with community group to move forward with climate protection? What do you need to climate protection? What do you need to succeed? What can you do on your own? succeed? What can you do on your own? What partnerships can we form to What partnerships can we form to combine forces and work together?combine forces and work together?

2. Leadership2. Leadership

What is the most important kind of What is the most important kind of leadership that we need from the four leadership that we need from the four regional agencies?regional agencies?

3. Transportation and Land Use3. Transportation and Land Use

What role should the four regional agencies What role should the four regional agencies play to develop more climateplay to develop more climate--friendly friendly communities and a more climatecommunities and a more climate--friendly friendly Bay Area? How can these agencies best Bay Area? How can these agencies best work with local governments to advance work with local governments to advance these issues?these issues?

4. Adaptation4. Adaptation

What is the proper balance of regional What is the proper balance of regional resources devoted to (a) reducing resources devoted to (a) reducing greenhouse gas emissions and (b) greenhouse gas emissions and (b) adaptation strategies? What role should adaptation strategies? What role should the regional agencies play in adaptation the regional agencies play in adaptation work?work?

5. Near5. Near--Term ActionsTerm Actions

What are your top nearWhat are your top near--term actions that term actions that the regional agencies could implement in the regional agencies could implement in the next one to three years? What are the next one to three years? What are some of the first things we can do to some of the first things we can do to implement these actions?implement these actions?